The Phillips Curve for the Romanian Economy, 1992-2017
The paper analyses the relationship between the unemployment rate and inflation, in Romania, during the 1992 – 1997 (March) period. For this purpose, we have estimated two econometric models, where the inflation trend has considered as a benchmark for inflation dynamics and the unemployment gap was...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
"Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest
2017-06-01
|
| Series: | Computational Methods in Social Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://cmss.univnt.ro/wp-content/uploads/vol/split/vol_V_issue_1/CMSS_vol_V_issue_1_art.004.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797701866143875072 |
|---|---|
| author | Dorin Jula Nicoleta Jula |
| author_facet | Dorin Jula Nicoleta Jula |
| author_sort | Dorin Jula |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The paper analyses the relationship between the unemployment rate and inflation, in Romania, during the 1992 – 1997 (March) period. For this purpose, we have estimated two econometric models, where the inflation trend has considered as a benchmark for inflation dynamics and the unemployment gap was built after applying the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter at unemployment rate. We have found that the unemployment gap had the greatest relevance in inflation model if we have taken a four months delay. The data support the hypothesis of a significant relationship between inflation and unemployment, with the shape described by the Phillips curve, namely the coefficients of unemployment gap were negative, econometrically significant and comparable as dimension in both models of inflation dynamics. We have calculated that the coefficient of unemployment gap is -0.344 in the Phillips curve model where the errors follow an ARMA(2, 2) process and -0.386 in the model which includes the inflation inertia. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T04:41:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-50b90d3d22d54b6badac1d0c85598fa4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2344-1232 2344-1232 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T04:41:51Z |
| publishDate | 2017-06-01 |
| publisher | "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Computational Methods in Social Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-50b90d3d22d54b6badac1d0c85598fa42023-09-03T09:35:09Zeng"Nicolae Titulescu" University of BucharestComputational Methods in Social Sciences2344-12322344-12322017-06-01513648The Phillips Curve for the Romanian Economy, 1992-2017Dorin Jula0Nicoleta Jula1Institute for Economic Forecasting – Romanian Academy and Faculty of Economic Sciences – Ecological University of BucharestFaculty of Economic Sciences – "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest Faculty of Economic SciencesThe paper analyses the relationship between the unemployment rate and inflation, in Romania, during the 1992 – 1997 (March) period. For this purpose, we have estimated two econometric models, where the inflation trend has considered as a benchmark for inflation dynamics and the unemployment gap was built after applying the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter at unemployment rate. We have found that the unemployment gap had the greatest relevance in inflation model if we have taken a four months delay. The data support the hypothesis of a significant relationship between inflation and unemployment, with the shape described by the Phillips curve, namely the coefficients of unemployment gap were negative, econometrically significant and comparable as dimension in both models of inflation dynamics. We have calculated that the coefficient of unemployment gap is -0.344 in the Phillips curve model where the errors follow an ARMA(2, 2) process and -0.386 in the model which includes the inflation inertia.http://cmss.univnt.ro/wp-content/uploads/vol/split/vol_V_issue_1/CMSS_vol_V_issue_1_art.004.pdfPhillips curveinflationunemployment |
| spellingShingle | Dorin Jula Nicoleta Jula The Phillips Curve for the Romanian Economy, 1992-2017 Computational Methods in Social Sciences Phillips curve inflation unemployment |
| title | The Phillips Curve for the Romanian Economy, 1992-2017 |
| title_full | The Phillips Curve for the Romanian Economy, 1992-2017 |
| title_fullStr | The Phillips Curve for the Romanian Economy, 1992-2017 |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Phillips Curve for the Romanian Economy, 1992-2017 |
| title_short | The Phillips Curve for the Romanian Economy, 1992-2017 |
| title_sort | phillips curve for the romanian economy 1992 2017 |
| topic | Phillips curve inflation unemployment |
| url | http://cmss.univnt.ro/wp-content/uploads/vol/split/vol_V_issue_1/CMSS_vol_V_issue_1_art.004.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dorinjula thephillipscurvefortheromanianeconomy19922017 AT nicoletajula thephillipscurvefortheromanianeconomy19922017 AT dorinjula phillipscurvefortheromanianeconomy19922017 AT nicoletajula phillipscurvefortheromanianeconomy19922017 |