Prediction of Crisis in Tehran Stock Exchange with Entropy and Analyzing the Identified Crises such as Covid-19
Prediction is one of the most important premises in making investment decisions. Accordingly, investors are keen to be aware of market trends and price returns. For this purpose, several methods have been used in different fields; however, in the present study, the ability to predict the crisis by C...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
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Institute for Management and Planning Studies
2021-09-01
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| Series: | برنامهریزی و بودجه |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://jpbud.ir/article-1-1948-en.html |
| _version_ | 1797937893033902080 |
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| author | Mohammad Osoolian Ali Koushki |
| author_facet | Mohammad Osoolian Ali Koushki |
| author_sort | Mohammad Osoolian |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Prediction is one of the most important premises in making investment decisions. Accordingly, investors are keen to be aware of market trends and price returns. For this purpose, several methods have been used in different fields; however, in the present study, the ability to predict the crisis by Cumulative Residual Entropy (CRE) and its generalized type, Fractional Cumulative Residual Entropy (FCRE), has been investigated. The data used in the research include the overall index, volume, trade value, and foreign exchange rate from October 2010 to July 2021. The results showed that both criteria could predict the crisis, but the FCRE is superior in crisis prediction. The identified periods of crisis are 2011-2012, 2014-2016, 2018-2019, and 2020. Each of the crises, including the recent Covid-19, was analyzed and investigated. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T18:52:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-50c182409e484983ad7e5b1d6d5bfba8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2251-9092 2251-9106 |
| language | fas |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T18:52:23Z |
| publishDate | 2021-09-01 |
| publisher | Institute for Management and Planning Studies |
| record_format | Article |
| series | برنامهریزی و بودجه |
| spelling | doaj.art-50c182409e484983ad7e5b1d6d5bfba82023-02-01T06:26:49ZfasInstitute for Management and Planning Studiesبرنامهریزی و بودجه2251-90922251-91062021-09-01262133152Prediction of Crisis in Tehran Stock Exchange with Entropy and Analyzing the Identified Crises such as Covid-19Mohammad Osoolian0Ali Koushki1 Faculty of Management and Accounting, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran Faculty of Management and Accounting, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran. Prediction is one of the most important premises in making investment decisions. Accordingly, investors are keen to be aware of market trends and price returns. For this purpose, several methods have been used in different fields; however, in the present study, the ability to predict the crisis by Cumulative Residual Entropy (CRE) and its generalized type, Fractional Cumulative Residual Entropy (FCRE), has been investigated. The data used in the research include the overall index, volume, trade value, and foreign exchange rate from October 2010 to July 2021. The results showed that both criteria could predict the crisis, but the FCRE is superior in crisis prediction. The identified periods of crisis are 2011-2012, 2014-2016, 2018-2019, and 2020. Each of the crises, including the recent Covid-19, was analyzed and investigated.http://jpbud.ir/article-1-1948-en.htmlforecastingcrisiscumulative residual entropyfractional entropycovid-19. |
| spellingShingle | Mohammad Osoolian Ali Koushki Prediction of Crisis in Tehran Stock Exchange with Entropy and Analyzing the Identified Crises such as Covid-19 برنامهریزی و بودجه forecasting crisis cumulative residual entropy fractional entropy covid-19. |
| title | Prediction of Crisis in Tehran Stock Exchange with Entropy and Analyzing the Identified Crises such as Covid-19 |
| title_full | Prediction of Crisis in Tehran Stock Exchange with Entropy and Analyzing the Identified Crises such as Covid-19 |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of Crisis in Tehran Stock Exchange with Entropy and Analyzing the Identified Crises such as Covid-19 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of Crisis in Tehran Stock Exchange with Entropy and Analyzing the Identified Crises such as Covid-19 |
| title_short | Prediction of Crisis in Tehran Stock Exchange with Entropy and Analyzing the Identified Crises such as Covid-19 |
| title_sort | prediction of crisis in tehran stock exchange with entropy and analyzing the identified crises such as covid 19 |
| topic | forecasting crisis cumulative residual entropy fractional entropy covid-19. |
| url | http://jpbud.ir/article-1-1948-en.html |
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