Domestic water demand forecasting in the Yellow River basin under changing environment
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a statistical-based model to forecast future domestic water demand in the context of climate change, population growth and technological development in Yellow River. Design/methodology/approach – The model is developed through the analysis of the eff...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Emerald Publishing
2018-04-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1108/IJCCSM-03-2017-0067 |
| _version_ | 1811183990752673792 |
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| author | Xiao-jun Wang Jian-yun Zhang Shamsuddin Shahid Lang Yu Chen Xie Bing-xuan Wang Xu Zhang |
| author_facet | Xiao-jun Wang Jian-yun Zhang Shamsuddin Shahid Lang Yu Chen Xie Bing-xuan Wang Xu Zhang |
| author_sort | Xiao-jun Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a statistical-based model to forecast future domestic water demand in the context of climate change, population growth and technological development in Yellow River. Design/methodology/approach – The model is developed through the analysis of the effects of climate variables and population on domestic water use in eight sub-basins of the Yellow River. The model is then used to forecast water demand under different environment change scenarios. Findings – The model projected an increase in domestic water demand in the Yellow River basin in the range of 67.85 × 10 8 to 62.20 × 10 8 m 3 in year 2020 and between 73.32 × 10 8 and 89.27 × 10 8 m 3 in year 2030. The general circulation model Beijing Normal University-Earth System Model (BNU-ESM) predicted the highest increase in water demand in both 2020 and 2030, while Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques Climate Model v.5 (CNRM-CM5) and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate- Earth System (MIROC-ESM) projected the lowest increase in demand in 2020 and 2030, respectively. The fastest growth in water demand is found in the region where water demand is already very high, which may cause serious water shortage and conflicts among water users. Originality/value – The simple regression-based domestic water demand model proposed in the study can be used for rapid evaluation of possible changes in domestic water demand due to environmental changes to aid in adaptation and mitigation planning. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T13:05:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-50de70743d2949c99c879cebc2003baf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1756-8692 1756-8706 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T13:05:56Z |
| publishDate | 2018-04-01 |
| publisher | Emerald Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-50de70743d2949c99c879cebc2003baf2022-12-22T04:22:45ZengEmerald PublishingInternational Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management1756-86921756-87062018-04-0110337938810.1108/IJCCSM-03-2017-0067602999Domestic water demand forecasting in the Yellow River basin under changing environmentXiao-jun Wang0Jian-yun Zhang1Shamsuddin Shahid2Lang Yu3Chen Xie4Bing-xuan Wang5Xu Zhang6State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, China and Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, China and Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing, ChinaFaculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru, MalaysiaChina Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, ChinaYellow River Conservancy Commission, Zhengzhou, ChinaHohai University, Nanjing, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, China and Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing, ChinaPurpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a statistical-based model to forecast future domestic water demand in the context of climate change, population growth and technological development in Yellow River. Design/methodology/approach – The model is developed through the analysis of the effects of climate variables and population on domestic water use in eight sub-basins of the Yellow River. The model is then used to forecast water demand under different environment change scenarios. Findings – The model projected an increase in domestic water demand in the Yellow River basin in the range of 67.85 × 10 8 to 62.20 × 10 8 m 3 in year 2020 and between 73.32 × 10 8 and 89.27 × 10 8 m 3 in year 2030. The general circulation model Beijing Normal University-Earth System Model (BNU-ESM) predicted the highest increase in water demand in both 2020 and 2030, while Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques Climate Model v.5 (CNRM-CM5) and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate- Earth System (MIROC-ESM) projected the lowest increase in demand in 2020 and 2030, respectively. The fastest growth in water demand is found in the region where water demand is already very high, which may cause serious water shortage and conflicts among water users. Originality/value – The simple regression-based domestic water demand model proposed in the study can be used for rapid evaluation of possible changes in domestic water demand due to environmental changes to aid in adaptation and mitigation planning.https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1108/IJCCSM-03-2017-0067Climate changeStatistical modelWater demand forecastingWater resources managementYellow river |
| spellingShingle | Xiao-jun Wang Jian-yun Zhang Shamsuddin Shahid Lang Yu Chen Xie Bing-xuan Wang Xu Zhang Domestic water demand forecasting in the Yellow River basin under changing environment International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management Climate change Statistical model Water demand forecasting Water resources management Yellow river |
| title | Domestic water demand forecasting in the Yellow River basin under changing environment |
| title_full | Domestic water demand forecasting in the Yellow River basin under changing environment |
| title_fullStr | Domestic water demand forecasting in the Yellow River basin under changing environment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Domestic water demand forecasting in the Yellow River basin under changing environment |
| title_short | Domestic water demand forecasting in the Yellow River basin under changing environment |
| title_sort | domestic water demand forecasting in the yellow river basin under changing environment |
| topic | Climate change Statistical model Water demand forecasting Water resources management Yellow river |
| url | https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1108/IJCCSM-03-2017-0067 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT xiaojunwang domesticwaterdemandforecastingintheyellowriverbasinunderchangingenvironment AT jianyunzhang domesticwaterdemandforecastingintheyellowriverbasinunderchangingenvironment AT shamsuddinshahid domesticwaterdemandforecastingintheyellowriverbasinunderchangingenvironment AT langyu domesticwaterdemandforecastingintheyellowriverbasinunderchangingenvironment AT chenxie domesticwaterdemandforecastingintheyellowriverbasinunderchangingenvironment AT bingxuanwang domesticwaterdemandforecastingintheyellowriverbasinunderchangingenvironment AT xuzhang domesticwaterdemandforecastingintheyellowriverbasinunderchangingenvironment |