From explanation of the past to prediction of the future: A comparative and predictive research design in the Social Sciences
Business and Psychology research (and the Social Sciences, in general) is heavily biased toward explaining the past. The holy grail in such explanation-oriented research is to develop causal theory, and to test this theory with historical data against a null no-effect benchmark. We seek to expand th...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Social Sciences and Humanities Open |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590291122000237 |
| _version_ | 1828097651166412800 |
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| author | Arjen van Witteloostuijn Johanna Vanderstraeten Hendrik Slabbinck Marcus Dejardin Julie Hermans Wim Coreynen |
| author_facet | Arjen van Witteloostuijn Johanna Vanderstraeten Hendrik Slabbinck Marcus Dejardin Julie Hermans Wim Coreynen |
| author_sort | Arjen van Witteloostuijn |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Business and Psychology research (and the Social Sciences, in general) is heavily biased toward explaining the past. The holy grail in such explanation-oriented research is to develop causal theory, and to test this theory with historical data against a null no-effect benchmark. We seek to expand the methodological toolkit by adding a comparative and predictive research design. First, by organizing an inter-theory battle, we move away from classic null hypothesis testing. Second, by predicting the future, we add prediction as a complement to the traditional explanation of the past. By way of illustration, we select a case in the Entrepreneurship field and theorize about the ranked predictions as to the relative growth performance of a sample of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). For this, we adopt two widely acknowledged theories in the literatures of Business and Psychology: The Competitive Strategy theory and the Motive Disposition theory. We use Gamblers' Ruin or Random Walk theory, arguing that company growth cannot be predicted, as the null benchmark. After identifying key explanatory predictive variables of our basic pair of theories, with Gamblers' Ruin or Random Walk theory's non-predictability as our benchmark, we produce ranked predictions as to the relative growth performance of 294 Belgian entrepreneurs and their SMEs. Later in 2023, we will test the predictive accuracy of these two selected theories and their predictive variables by comparing the predictive rankings with realized growth, as well as vis-à-vis randomness. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T07:49:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-50df2f1779fa4695802a0ceef197c6c0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2590-2911 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T07:49:22Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Social Sciences and Humanities Open |
| spelling | doaj.art-50df2f1779fa4695802a0ceef197c6c02022-12-22T04:36:08ZengElsevierSocial Sciences and Humanities Open2590-29112022-01-0161100269From explanation of the past to prediction of the future: A comparative and predictive research design in the Social SciencesArjen van Witteloostuijn0Johanna Vanderstraeten1Hendrik Slabbinck2Marcus Dejardin3Julie Hermans4Wim Coreynen5Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the Netherlands; University of Antwerp, Belgium; Antwerp Management School, BelgiumUniversity of Antwerp, BelgiumGhent University, BelgiumUniversity of Namur, Belgium; UCLouvain, BelgiumUCLouvain, BelgiumVrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the Netherlands; Utrecht University, the Netherlands; Corresponding author. De Boelelaan 1105, 1081, HV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.Business and Psychology research (and the Social Sciences, in general) is heavily biased toward explaining the past. The holy grail in such explanation-oriented research is to develop causal theory, and to test this theory with historical data against a null no-effect benchmark. We seek to expand the methodological toolkit by adding a comparative and predictive research design. First, by organizing an inter-theory battle, we move away from classic null hypothesis testing. Second, by predicting the future, we add prediction as a complement to the traditional explanation of the past. By way of illustration, we select a case in the Entrepreneurship field and theorize about the ranked predictions as to the relative growth performance of a sample of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). For this, we adopt two widely acknowledged theories in the literatures of Business and Psychology: The Competitive Strategy theory and the Motive Disposition theory. We use Gamblers' Ruin or Random Walk theory, arguing that company growth cannot be predicted, as the null benchmark. After identifying key explanatory predictive variables of our basic pair of theories, with Gamblers' Ruin or Random Walk theory's non-predictability as our benchmark, we produce ranked predictions as to the relative growth performance of 294 Belgian entrepreneurs and their SMEs. Later in 2023, we will test the predictive accuracy of these two selected theories and their predictive variables by comparing the predictive rankings with realized growth, as well as vis-à-vis randomness.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590291122000237Comparative research designPredictive research designSocial sciencesEntrepreneurshipSmall and medium-sized enterprises |
| spellingShingle | Arjen van Witteloostuijn Johanna Vanderstraeten Hendrik Slabbinck Marcus Dejardin Julie Hermans Wim Coreynen From explanation of the past to prediction of the future: A comparative and predictive research design in the Social Sciences Social Sciences and Humanities Open Comparative research design Predictive research design Social sciences Entrepreneurship Small and medium-sized enterprises |
| title | From explanation of the past to prediction of the future: A comparative and predictive research design in the Social Sciences |
| title_full | From explanation of the past to prediction of the future: A comparative and predictive research design in the Social Sciences |
| title_fullStr | From explanation of the past to prediction of the future: A comparative and predictive research design in the Social Sciences |
| title_full_unstemmed | From explanation of the past to prediction of the future: A comparative and predictive research design in the Social Sciences |
| title_short | From explanation of the past to prediction of the future: A comparative and predictive research design in the Social Sciences |
| title_sort | from explanation of the past to prediction of the future a comparative and predictive research design in the social sciences |
| topic | Comparative research design Predictive research design Social sciences Entrepreneurship Small and medium-sized enterprises |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590291122000237 |
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