Study of Landfalling Typhoon Potential Maximum Gale Forecasting in South China
Based on historical tropical cyclone (TC) tracking data and wind data from observation stations, four comparison experiments were designed that considered TC translation speed similarity and five new ensemble schemes in an improved Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast (DSAEF) model for Lan...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/5/888 |
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| author | Zhizhong Su Lifang Li Fumin Ren Jing Zhu Chunxia Liu Qilin Wan Qiongbo Sun Li Jia |
| author_facet | Zhizhong Su Lifang Li Fumin Ren Jing Zhu Chunxia Liu Qilin Wan Qiongbo Sun Li Jia |
| author_sort | Zhizhong Su |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Based on historical tropical cyclone (TC) tracking data and wind data from observation stations, four comparison experiments were designed that considered TC translation speed similarity and five new ensemble schemes in an improved Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast (DSAEF) model for Landfalling Typhoon Gale (LTG), which was tested in terms of forecast capability in South China. The results showed that the improved DSAEF_LTG model with the incorporation of TC translation speed and a new ensemble scheme could improve the forecast threat score (TS) and reduce both the false alarm ratio and the missing ratio in comparison with corresponding values attained before the improvement. The TS of the new ensemble scheme model (DLTG_3) was 0.34 at threshold above Beaufort Scale 7, which was 31% better than that of the unimproved model (DLTG_1). At a threshold above Beaufort Scale 10, the TS of DLTG_3 indicated even greater improvement, reaching 0.25, i.e., 127% higher than that of DLTG_1. The results of the experiments illustrated the marked improvement achievable when using the new ensemble scheme. The reasons for the differences in the DSAEF_LTG model forecasts before and after the introduction of TC translation speed and the new ensemble scheme were analyzed for the cases of Typhoon Haima and Typhoon Hato. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T03:56:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-50ea6ea0dedd43ccb27603ccdf1a2a7c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T03:56:35Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-50ea6ea0dedd43ccb27603ccdf1a2a7c2023-11-18T00:26:25ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332023-05-0114588810.3390/atmos14050888Study of Landfalling Typhoon Potential Maximum Gale Forecasting in South ChinaZhizhong Su0Lifang Li1Fumin Ren2Jing Zhu3Chunxia Liu4Qilin Wan5Qiongbo Sun6Li Jia7Xiamen Key Laboratory of Straits Meteorology, Xiamen Meteorological Bureau, Xiamen 361012, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaXiamen Key Laboratory of Straits Meteorology, Xiamen Meteorological Bureau, Xiamen 361012, ChinaGuangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, Guangzhou 510080, ChinaGuangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, Guangzhou 510080, ChinaXiamen Key Laboratory of Straits Meteorology, Xiamen Meteorological Bureau, Xiamen 361012, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaBased on historical tropical cyclone (TC) tracking data and wind data from observation stations, four comparison experiments were designed that considered TC translation speed similarity and five new ensemble schemes in an improved Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast (DSAEF) model for Landfalling Typhoon Gale (LTG), which was tested in terms of forecast capability in South China. The results showed that the improved DSAEF_LTG model with the incorporation of TC translation speed and a new ensemble scheme could improve the forecast threat score (TS) and reduce both the false alarm ratio and the missing ratio in comparison with corresponding values attained before the improvement. The TS of the new ensemble scheme model (DLTG_3) was 0.34 at threshold above Beaufort Scale 7, which was 31% better than that of the unimproved model (DLTG_1). At a threshold above Beaufort Scale 10, the TS of DLTG_3 indicated even greater improvement, reaching 0.25, i.e., 127% higher than that of DLTG_1. The results of the experiments illustrated the marked improvement achievable when using the new ensemble scheme. The reasons for the differences in the DSAEF_LTG model forecasts before and after the introduction of TC translation speed and the new ensemble scheme were analyzed for the cases of Typhoon Haima and Typhoon Hato.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/5/888DSAEF_LTG modellandfalling typhoon galeparameters improvementSouth China |
| spellingShingle | Zhizhong Su Lifang Li Fumin Ren Jing Zhu Chunxia Liu Qilin Wan Qiongbo Sun Li Jia Study of Landfalling Typhoon Potential Maximum Gale Forecasting in South China Atmosphere DSAEF_LTG model landfalling typhoon gale parameters improvement South China |
| title | Study of Landfalling Typhoon Potential Maximum Gale Forecasting in South China |
| title_full | Study of Landfalling Typhoon Potential Maximum Gale Forecasting in South China |
| title_fullStr | Study of Landfalling Typhoon Potential Maximum Gale Forecasting in South China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Study of Landfalling Typhoon Potential Maximum Gale Forecasting in South China |
| title_short | Study of Landfalling Typhoon Potential Maximum Gale Forecasting in South China |
| title_sort | study of landfalling typhoon potential maximum gale forecasting in south china |
| topic | DSAEF_LTG model landfalling typhoon gale parameters improvement South China |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/5/888 |
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