Constrained Projections Indicate Less Delay in Onset of Summer Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea
Abstract The summer monsoon onset over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea signals the beginning of the Asian summer monsoon, critical for local fisheries, agriculture and livelihoods, so communities are concerned about its potential changes under global warming. Previous projections have suggeste...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110994 |
| _version_ | 1826545369410961408 |
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| author | Yifeng Cheng Lu Wang Xiaolong Chen Tianjun Zhou Andrew Turner Lijuan Wang |
| author_facet | Yifeng Cheng Lu Wang Xiaolong Chen Tianjun Zhou Andrew Turner Lijuan Wang |
| author_sort | Yifeng Cheng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The summer monsoon onset over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea signals the beginning of the Asian summer monsoon, critical for local fisheries, agriculture and livelihoods, so communities are concerned about its potential changes under global warming. Previous projections have suggested a delay, but the extent of this delay remains uncertain, undermining the reliability of the projections. Here, we show a significant correlation between the projected shift in Bay of Bengal/South China Sea monsoon onset and present‐day sea surface temperature (SST) simulation over the western Pacific (WP). This emergent relationship arises from the spread of the precipitation response over the western‐central Pacific to WP SST, as more precipitation induces stronger tropical upper‐tropospheric warming, increasing westerly vertical shear near South Asia, and facilitating the onset delay. The rectified projections indicate that the delayed shift is almost halved compared to raw projections, and the intermodel uncertainty is reduced by 30%. |
| first_indexed | 2025-02-17T07:33:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-514cc93ec6cf43819efd460c8eec85aa |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-03-14T05:16:46Z |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-514cc93ec6cf43819efd460c8eec85aa2025-03-06T10:05:05ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-11-015121n/an/a10.1029/2024GL110994Constrained Projections Indicate Less Delay in Onset of Summer Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and South China SeaYifeng Cheng0Lu Wang1Xiaolong Chen2Tianjun Zhou3Andrew Turner4Lijuan Wang5Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC‐FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC‐FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaNational Centre for Atmospheric Science University of Reading Reading UKKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC‐FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaAbstract The summer monsoon onset over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea signals the beginning of the Asian summer monsoon, critical for local fisheries, agriculture and livelihoods, so communities are concerned about its potential changes under global warming. Previous projections have suggested a delay, but the extent of this delay remains uncertain, undermining the reliability of the projections. Here, we show a significant correlation between the projected shift in Bay of Bengal/South China Sea monsoon onset and present‐day sea surface temperature (SST) simulation over the western Pacific (WP). This emergent relationship arises from the spread of the precipitation response over the western‐central Pacific to WP SST, as more precipitation induces stronger tropical upper‐tropospheric warming, increasing westerly vertical shear near South Asia, and facilitating the onset delay. The rectified projections indicate that the delayed shift is almost halved compared to raw projections, and the intermodel uncertainty is reduced by 30%.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110994emergent constraintAsian monsoonmonsoon onsetCMIP6climate projectionglobal warming |
| spellingShingle | Yifeng Cheng Lu Wang Xiaolong Chen Tianjun Zhou Andrew Turner Lijuan Wang Constrained Projections Indicate Less Delay in Onset of Summer Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea Geophysical Research Letters emergent constraint Asian monsoon monsoon onset CMIP6 climate projection global warming |
| title | Constrained Projections Indicate Less Delay in Onset of Summer Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea |
| title_full | Constrained Projections Indicate Less Delay in Onset of Summer Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea |
| title_fullStr | Constrained Projections Indicate Less Delay in Onset of Summer Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea |
| title_full_unstemmed | Constrained Projections Indicate Less Delay in Onset of Summer Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea |
| title_short | Constrained Projections Indicate Less Delay in Onset of Summer Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea |
| title_sort | constrained projections indicate less delay in onset of summer monsoon over the bay of bengal and south china sea |
| topic | emergent constraint Asian monsoon monsoon onset CMIP6 climate projection global warming |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110994 |
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