Can foodborne illness estimates from different countries be legitimately compared?: case study of rates in the UK compared with Australia, Canada and USA
Objective Mathematical models have gained traction when estimating cases of foodborne illness. Model structures vary due to differences in data availability. This begs the question as to whether differences in foodborne illness rates internationally are real or due to differences in modelling approa...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMJ Publishing Group
2023-08-01
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| Series: | BMJ Open Gastroenterology |
| Online Access: | https://bmjopengastro.bmj.com/content/10/1/e001009.full |
| _version_ | 1797371554547367936 |
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| author | Sarah O'Brien Darren Holland Nazmina Mahmoudzadeh Robin Clifford Guy Poppy Zebulah Meredith Harry Grantham-Hill |
| author_facet | Sarah O'Brien Darren Holland Nazmina Mahmoudzadeh Robin Clifford Guy Poppy Zebulah Meredith Harry Grantham-Hill |
| author_sort | Sarah O'Brien |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective Mathematical models have gained traction when estimating cases of foodborne illness. Model structures vary due to differences in data availability. This begs the question as to whether differences in foodborne illness rates internationally are real or due to differences in modelling approaches.Difficulties in comparing illness rates have come into focus with COVID-19 infection rates being contrasted between countries. Furthermore, with post-EU Exit trade talks ongoing, being able to understand and compare foodborne illness rates internationally is a vital part of risk assessments related to trade in food commodities.Design We compared foodborne illness estimates for the United Kingdom (UK) with those from Australia, Canada and the USA. We then undertook sensitivity analysis, by recreating the mathematical models used in each country, to understand the impact of some of the key differences in approach and to enable more like-for-like comparisons.Results Published estimates of overall foodborne illness rates in the UK were lower than the other countries. However, when UK estimates were adjusted to a more like-for-like approach to the other countries, differences were smaller and often had overlapping credible intervals. When comparing rates by specific pathogens, there were fewer differences between countries. The few large differences found, such as virus rates in Canada, could at least partly be traced to methodological differences.Conclusion Foodborne illness estimation models are country specific, making international comparisons problematic. Some of the disparities in estimated rates between countries can be shown to be attributed to differences in methodology rather than real differences in risk. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T18:21:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-515bd513e63646ccbf985d1013c57c59 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2054-4774 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T18:21:34Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMJ Open Gastroenterology |
| spelling | doaj.art-515bd513e63646ccbf985d1013c57c592023-12-30T20:30:07ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open Gastroenterology2054-47742023-08-0110110.1136/bmjgast-2022-001009Can foodborne illness estimates from different countries be legitimately compared?: case study of rates in the UK compared with Australia, Canada and USASarah O'Brien0Darren Holland1Nazmina Mahmoudzadeh2Robin Clifford3Guy Poppy4Zebulah Meredith5Harry Grantham-Hill6Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UKFood Standards Agency, London, UKFood Standards Agency, London, UKFood Standards Agency, London, UKUniversity of Southampton, Southampton, Hampshire, UKFood Standards Agency, London, UKFood Standards Agency, London, UKObjective Mathematical models have gained traction when estimating cases of foodborne illness. Model structures vary due to differences in data availability. This begs the question as to whether differences in foodborne illness rates internationally are real or due to differences in modelling approaches.Difficulties in comparing illness rates have come into focus with COVID-19 infection rates being contrasted between countries. Furthermore, with post-EU Exit trade talks ongoing, being able to understand and compare foodborne illness rates internationally is a vital part of risk assessments related to trade in food commodities.Design We compared foodborne illness estimates for the United Kingdom (UK) with those from Australia, Canada and the USA. We then undertook sensitivity analysis, by recreating the mathematical models used in each country, to understand the impact of some of the key differences in approach and to enable more like-for-like comparisons.Results Published estimates of overall foodborne illness rates in the UK were lower than the other countries. However, when UK estimates were adjusted to a more like-for-like approach to the other countries, differences were smaller and often had overlapping credible intervals. When comparing rates by specific pathogens, there were fewer differences between countries. The few large differences found, such as virus rates in Canada, could at least partly be traced to methodological differences.Conclusion Foodborne illness estimation models are country specific, making international comparisons problematic. Some of the disparities in estimated rates between countries can be shown to be attributed to differences in methodology rather than real differences in risk.https://bmjopengastro.bmj.com/content/10/1/e001009.full |
| spellingShingle | Sarah O'Brien Darren Holland Nazmina Mahmoudzadeh Robin Clifford Guy Poppy Zebulah Meredith Harry Grantham-Hill Can foodborne illness estimates from different countries be legitimately compared?: case study of rates in the UK compared with Australia, Canada and USA BMJ Open Gastroenterology |
| title | Can foodborne illness estimates from different countries be legitimately compared?: case study of rates in the UK compared with Australia, Canada and USA |
| title_full | Can foodborne illness estimates from different countries be legitimately compared?: case study of rates in the UK compared with Australia, Canada and USA |
| title_fullStr | Can foodborne illness estimates from different countries be legitimately compared?: case study of rates in the UK compared with Australia, Canada and USA |
| title_full_unstemmed | Can foodborne illness estimates from different countries be legitimately compared?: case study of rates in the UK compared with Australia, Canada and USA |
| title_short | Can foodborne illness estimates from different countries be legitimately compared?: case study of rates in the UK compared with Australia, Canada and USA |
| title_sort | can foodborne illness estimates from different countries be legitimately compared case study of rates in the uk compared with australia canada and usa |
| url | https://bmjopengastro.bmj.com/content/10/1/e001009.full |
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