Bayesian modeling of COVID-19 cases with a correction to account for under-reported cases
The novel of COVID-19 disease started in late 2019 making the worldwide governments came across a high number of critical and death cases, beyond constant fear of the collapse in their health systems. Since the beginning of the pandemic, researchers and authorities are mainly concerned with carrying...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246804272030049X |
| _version_ | 1797205001814147072 |
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| author | Anderson Castro Soares de Oliveira Lia Hanna Martins Morita Eveliny Barroso da Silva Luiz André Ribeiro Zardo Cor Jesus Fernandes Fontes Daniele Cristina Tita Granzotto |
| author_facet | Anderson Castro Soares de Oliveira Lia Hanna Martins Morita Eveliny Barroso da Silva Luiz André Ribeiro Zardo Cor Jesus Fernandes Fontes Daniele Cristina Tita Granzotto |
| author_sort | Anderson Castro Soares de Oliveira |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The novel of COVID-19 disease started in late 2019 making the worldwide governments came across a high number of critical and death cases, beyond constant fear of the collapse in their health systems. Since the beginning of the pandemic, researchers and authorities are mainly concerned with carrying out quantitative studies (modeling and predictions) overcoming the scarcity of tests that lead us to under-reporting cases. To address these issues, we introduce a Bayesian approach to the SIR model with correction for under-reporting in the analysis of COVID-19 cases in Brazil. The proposed model was enforced to obtain estimates of important quantities such as the reproductive rate and the average infection period, along with the more likely date when the pandemic peak may occur. Several under-reporting scenarios were considered in the simulation study, showing how impacting is the lack of information in the modeling. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:44:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-516cc5f734e54afaa84d3ae8c9009691 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2468-0427 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:44:11Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| spelling | doaj.art-516cc5f734e54afaa84d3ae8c90096912024-04-16T14:17:42ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Infectious Disease Modelling2468-04272020-01-015699713Bayesian modeling of COVID-19 cases with a correction to account for under-reported casesAnderson Castro Soares de Oliveira0Lia Hanna Martins Morita1Eveliny Barroso da Silva2Luiz André Ribeiro Zardo3Cor Jesus Fernandes Fontes4Daniele Cristina Tita Granzotto5Departamento de Estatística, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso - UFMT, CEP: 78060-900, Cuiabá, MT, BrazilDepartamento de Estatística, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso - UFMT, CEP: 78060-900, Cuiabá, MT, Brazil; Corresponding author.Departamento de Estatística, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso - UFMT, CEP: 78060-900, Cuiabá, MT, BrazilDepartamento de Estatística, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso - UFMT, CEP: 78060-900, Cuiabá, MT, BrazilFaculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso - UFMT, CEP: 78060-900, Cuiabá, MT, BrazilDepartamento de Estatística, Universidade Estadual de Maringá - UEM, CEP: 87020-900, Maringá, PR, BrazilThe novel of COVID-19 disease started in late 2019 making the worldwide governments came across a high number of critical and death cases, beyond constant fear of the collapse in their health systems. Since the beginning of the pandemic, researchers and authorities are mainly concerned with carrying out quantitative studies (modeling and predictions) overcoming the scarcity of tests that lead us to under-reporting cases. To address these issues, we introduce a Bayesian approach to the SIR model with correction for under-reporting in the analysis of COVID-19 cases in Brazil. The proposed model was enforced to obtain estimates of important quantities such as the reproductive rate and the average infection period, along with the more likely date when the pandemic peak may occur. Several under-reporting scenarios were considered in the simulation study, showing how impacting is the lack of information in the modeling.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246804272030049XCOVID-19Under-reportingSIR modelBayesian aproach |
| spellingShingle | Anderson Castro Soares de Oliveira Lia Hanna Martins Morita Eveliny Barroso da Silva Luiz André Ribeiro Zardo Cor Jesus Fernandes Fontes Daniele Cristina Tita Granzotto Bayesian modeling of COVID-19 cases with a correction to account for under-reported cases Infectious Disease Modelling COVID-19 Under-reporting SIR model Bayesian aproach |
| title | Bayesian modeling of COVID-19 cases with a correction to account for under-reported cases |
| title_full | Bayesian modeling of COVID-19 cases with a correction to account for under-reported cases |
| title_fullStr | Bayesian modeling of COVID-19 cases with a correction to account for under-reported cases |
| title_full_unstemmed | Bayesian modeling of COVID-19 cases with a correction to account for under-reported cases |
| title_short | Bayesian modeling of COVID-19 cases with a correction to account for under-reported cases |
| title_sort | bayesian modeling of covid 19 cases with a correction to account for under reported cases |
| topic | COVID-19 Under-reporting SIR model Bayesian aproach |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246804272030049X |
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