| Summary: | Heartworm disease is a vector-borne zoonotic disease caused by <i>Dirofilaria immitis</i>. The Canary Islands (Spain), geolocated close to the coast of Western Sahara, is an archipelago considered hyperendemic where the average prevalence in domestic dogs is high, heterogeneous, and non-uniform. In addition, <i>Culex theileri</i> has been reported as a vector of the disease on two of the most populated islands. Our aim was to develop a more accurate transmission risk model for dirofilariosis for the Canary Islands. For this purpose, we used different variables related to parasite transmission; the potential distribution of suitable habitats for <i>Culex</i> spp. was calculated using the ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of generations of <i>D. immitis</i>. The resulting model was validated with the geolocation of <i>D. immitis</i>-infected dogs from all islands. In addition, the impact of possible future climatic conditions was estimated. There is a risk of transmission on all islands, being high in coastal areas, moderate in midland areas, and minimal in higher altitude areas. Most of the dogs infected with <i>D. immitis</i> were geolocated in areas with a high risk of transmission. In 2080, the percentage of territory that will have been gained by <i>Culex</i> spp. is small (5.02%), although it will occur toward the midlands from coastal areas. This new model provides a high predictive power for the study of cardiopulmonary dirofilariosis in the Canary Islands, as a hyperendemic area of the disease, and can be used as a tool for its prevention and control.
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