COVID-19 vaccination and unemployment risk: lessons from the Italian crisis
Abstract This paper analyzes the impact of mobility contraction on employee furlough and excess deaths in Italy during the COVID-19 crisis. Our approach exploits rainfall patterns across Italian administrative regions as a source of exogenous variation in human mobility to pinpoint the causal effect...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2021-09-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97462-6 |
| _version_ | 1818683216350937088 |
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| author | Valentina Pieroni Angelo Facchini Massimo Riccaboni |
| author_facet | Valentina Pieroni Angelo Facchini Massimo Riccaboni |
| author_sort | Valentina Pieroni |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This paper analyzes the impact of mobility contraction on employee furlough and excess deaths in Italy during the COVID-19 crisis. Our approach exploits rainfall patterns across Italian administrative regions as a source of exogenous variation in human mobility to pinpoint the causal effect of mobility restrictions on excess deaths and furlough workers. Results confirm that the first countrywide lockdown has effectively curtailed the COVID-19 epidemics restricting it mainly to the northern part of the country, with the drawback of a countrywide increase in unemployment risk. Our analysis points out that a mobility contraction of 1% leads to a mortality reduction of 0.6%, but it induces an increase of 10% in Wage Guarantee Funds allowed hours. We discuss return-to-work policies and prioritizing policies for administering COVID-19 vaccines in the most advanced stage of a vaccination campaign when the healthy active population is left to be vaccinated. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T10:31:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5214669dc5ff414dbfa5c0f17f0c2cba |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T10:31:13Z |
| publishDate | 2021-09-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-5214669dc5ff414dbfa5c0f17f0c2cba2022-12-21T21:52:31ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222021-09-011111810.1038/s41598-021-97462-6COVID-19 vaccination and unemployment risk: lessons from the Italian crisisValentina Pieroni0Angelo Facchini1Massimo Riccaboni2IMT School for Advanced Studies LuccaIMT School for Advanced Studies LuccaIMT School for Advanced Studies LuccaAbstract This paper analyzes the impact of mobility contraction on employee furlough and excess deaths in Italy during the COVID-19 crisis. Our approach exploits rainfall patterns across Italian administrative regions as a source of exogenous variation in human mobility to pinpoint the causal effect of mobility restrictions on excess deaths and furlough workers. Results confirm that the first countrywide lockdown has effectively curtailed the COVID-19 epidemics restricting it mainly to the northern part of the country, with the drawback of a countrywide increase in unemployment risk. Our analysis points out that a mobility contraction of 1% leads to a mortality reduction of 0.6%, but it induces an increase of 10% in Wage Guarantee Funds allowed hours. We discuss return-to-work policies and prioritizing policies for administering COVID-19 vaccines in the most advanced stage of a vaccination campaign when the healthy active population is left to be vaccinated.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97462-6 |
| spellingShingle | Valentina Pieroni Angelo Facchini Massimo Riccaboni COVID-19 vaccination and unemployment risk: lessons from the Italian crisis Scientific Reports |
| title | COVID-19 vaccination and unemployment risk: lessons from the Italian crisis |
| title_full | COVID-19 vaccination and unemployment risk: lessons from the Italian crisis |
| title_fullStr | COVID-19 vaccination and unemployment risk: lessons from the Italian crisis |
| title_full_unstemmed | COVID-19 vaccination and unemployment risk: lessons from the Italian crisis |
| title_short | COVID-19 vaccination and unemployment risk: lessons from the Italian crisis |
| title_sort | covid 19 vaccination and unemployment risk lessons from the italian crisis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97462-6 |
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