Technology Prediction for Acquiring a Must-Have Mobile Device for Military Communication Infrastructure
The smartphone is a must-have mobile device for the military forces to accomplish critical missions and protect critical infrastructures. This paper explores the applicability of a technology prediction methodology to manage technological obsolescence while pursuing the acquisition of advanced comme...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-03-01
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| Series: | Applied Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/12/6/3207 |
| _version_ | 1797472895039963136 |
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| author | Sungil Kim Byungki Jung Dongyun Han Choonjoo Lee |
| author_facet | Sungil Kim Byungki Jung Dongyun Han Choonjoo Lee |
| author_sort | Sungil Kim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The smartphone is a must-have mobile device for the military forces to accomplish critical missions and protect critical infrastructures. This paper explores the applicability of a technology prediction methodology to manage technological obsolescence while pursuing the acquisition of advanced commercial technology for military use. It reviews the Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) methodology and applies an author-written Stata program for smartphone technology forecasting using TFDEA. We analyzed smartphone launch data from 2005 to 2020 to predict the adoption of smartphone technology and discuss the pace of technological change. The study identifies that the market is undergoing reorganization as new smartphone models expand the market and increase their technical performance. The average rate of technological change, the efficiency change, and the technology change were 1.079, 1.004, and 1.011 each, respectively, which means that the technology progressed over the period. When dividing before and after 2017, technological change and efficiency change generally regressed except for Huawei, Xiaomi, and Oppo. This means that Chinese smartphones are expanding the global market in all directions and the technology is reaching maturity and market competition is accelerating. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T20:07:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-522178b2c403438ebddc7fdf9a634828 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-3417 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T20:07:40Z |
| publishDate | 2022-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Applied Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-522178b2c403438ebddc7fdf9a6348282023-11-24T00:25:33ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172022-03-01126320710.3390/app12063207Technology Prediction for Acquiring a Must-Have Mobile Device for Military Communication InfrastructureSungil Kim0Byungki Jung1Dongyun Han2Choonjoo Lee3Defense Institute of SeoulTech, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul 01811, KoreaNavy Headquarters, Sindoan-myeon, Gyeryong-si 32800, KoreaDefense Science Department, Korea National Defense University, Nonsan-si 33021, KoreaDefense Science Department, Korea National Defense University, Nonsan-si 33021, KoreaThe smartphone is a must-have mobile device for the military forces to accomplish critical missions and protect critical infrastructures. This paper explores the applicability of a technology prediction methodology to manage technological obsolescence while pursuing the acquisition of advanced commercial technology for military use. It reviews the Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) methodology and applies an author-written Stata program for smartphone technology forecasting using TFDEA. We analyzed smartphone launch data from 2005 to 2020 to predict the adoption of smartphone technology and discuss the pace of technological change. The study identifies that the market is undergoing reorganization as new smartphone models expand the market and increase their technical performance. The average rate of technological change, the efficiency change, and the technology change were 1.079, 1.004, and 1.011 each, respectively, which means that the technology progressed over the period. When dividing before and after 2017, technological change and efficiency change generally regressed except for Huawei, Xiaomi, and Oppo. This means that Chinese smartphones are expanding the global market in all directions and the technology is reaching maturity and market competition is accelerating.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/12/6/3207Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA)Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI)smartphonestate-of-the-art technologydual-use technologyStata |
| spellingShingle | Sungil Kim Byungki Jung Dongyun Han Choonjoo Lee Technology Prediction for Acquiring a Must-Have Mobile Device for Military Communication Infrastructure Applied Sciences Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) smartphone state-of-the-art technology dual-use technology Stata |
| title | Technology Prediction for Acquiring a Must-Have Mobile Device for Military Communication Infrastructure |
| title_full | Technology Prediction for Acquiring a Must-Have Mobile Device for Military Communication Infrastructure |
| title_fullStr | Technology Prediction for Acquiring a Must-Have Mobile Device for Military Communication Infrastructure |
| title_full_unstemmed | Technology Prediction for Acquiring a Must-Have Mobile Device for Military Communication Infrastructure |
| title_short | Technology Prediction for Acquiring a Must-Have Mobile Device for Military Communication Infrastructure |
| title_sort | technology prediction for acquiring a must have mobile device for military communication infrastructure |
| topic | Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) smartphone state-of-the-art technology dual-use technology Stata |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/12/6/3207 |
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