| Summary: | Abstract Background Stage I lung adenocarcinoma is a heterogeneous group. Previous studies have shown the prognostic evaluation value of PET/CT in this cohort; however, few studies focused on stage I invasive adenocarcinoma manifesting as solid nodules. This study aimed to evaluate the recurrence risk for patients with stage I invasive lung adenocarcinoma manifesting as solid nodules based on 18F-FDG PET/CT, CT imaging signs, and clinicopathological parameters. Methods We retrospectively enrolled 230 patients who underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT examination between January 2013 and July 2019. Metabolic parameters: maximum standard uptake value (SUVmax), mean standard uptake value, tumor metabolic volume (MTV), and total tumor glucose digestion were collected. Kaplan–Meier method was used to evaluate recurrence-free survival (RFS), and the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the independent risk factors associated with RFS. The time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) method was used to calculate the optimal cutoff value of metabolic parameters. Results The 5-year RFS rate for all patients was 71.7%. Multivariate Cox analysis revealed that the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer Pathology Committee (IASLC) pathologic grade 3 [Hazard ratio (HR), 3.96; 95% Confidence interval (CI), 1.11–14.09], the presence of cavity sign (HR 5.38; 95% CI 2.23–12.96), SUVmax (HR 1.23; 95% CI 1.13–1.33), and MTV (HR 1.05; 95% CI 1.01–1.08) were potential independent prognostic factors for RFS. Patients with IASLC grade 3, the presence of cavity sign, SUVmax > 3.9, or MTV > 5.4 cm3 were classified as high risk, while others were classified as low risk. There was a significant difference in RFS between the high-risk and low-risk groups (HR 6.04; 95% CI 2.17–16.82, P < 0.001), and the 5-year RFS rate was 94.1% for the low-risk group and 61.3% for the high-risk group. Conclusions We successfully evaluate the recurrence risk of patients with stage I invasive adenocarcinoma manifesting as solid nodules for the first time. The 5-year RFS rate in the high-risk group was significantly lower than in the low-risk group (61.3% vs. 94.1%). Our study may aid in optimizing therapeutic strategies and improving survival benefits for those patients.
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