Investigating Long-Term Commitments to Replace Electricity Generation with SMRs and Estimates of Climate Change Impact Costs Using a Modified VENSIM Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) Model
During the last few years, nuclear energy has received great attention due to the increase in climate change awareness. According to the Paris agreement, global temperature is to be kept below 2 °C and preferably below 1.5 °C by 2050. This approach has been substantially confirmed in the recent COP...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-05-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/10/3613 |
| _version_ | 1797500163874357248 |
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| author | Elaheh Shobeiri Huan Shen Filippo Genco Akira Tokuhiro |
| author_facet | Elaheh Shobeiri Huan Shen Filippo Genco Akira Tokuhiro |
| author_sort | Elaheh Shobeiri |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | During the last few years, nuclear energy has received great attention due to the increase in climate change awareness. According to the Paris agreement, global temperature is to be kept below 2 °C and preferably below 1.5 °C by 2050. This approach has been substantially confirmed in the recent COP 26 in Glasgow. This research investigates the effects of integrating SMR nuclear power plants (small modular reactors) into the Nordhaus Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) model for reducing the CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in the atmosphere by substituting all existing fossil-fueled power plants (FPPP). The software is based on the VENSIM dynamic systems modeling platform. Simulations were carried out from the year 2019 to 2100 using 10-year increments. Several scenarios were thus simulated replacing roughly 70,000 FPPPs operating at this time in the world. Simulations indicate a CO<sub>2</sub> reduction of approximately 12.63% relative to the initial conditions used and using 87,830 SMR core units of 80 MWe electric each to meet such demand. The DICE model further predicts the cost of climate damage impacting the upper ocean and atmospheric temperatures, and the deep ocean temperature as USD 1.515 trillion (US Dollar; (US) trillion = 1,000,000,000,000 (1 × 10<sup>12</sup>)) by the end of this century. From a modified section of the model, a cost of USD 1.073 trillion is predicted as the toll on human health costs. This is thus equal to a USD 2.59 trillion loss in the economy. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T03:57:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-52442d1e07924aac838644159ae6310c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T03:57:55Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-52442d1e07924aac838644159ae6310c2023-11-23T10:50:38ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732022-05-011510361310.3390/en15103613Investigating Long-Term Commitments to Replace Electricity Generation with SMRs and Estimates of Climate Change Impact Costs Using a Modified VENSIM Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) ModelElaheh Shobeiri0Huan Shen1Filippo Genco2Akira Tokuhiro3Faculty of Energy Systems and Nuclear Science, Ontario Tech University, 2000 Simcoe Street North, Oshawa, ON L1G 0C5, CanadaFaculty of Energy Systems and Nuclear Science, Ontario Tech University, 2000 Simcoe Street North, Oshawa, ON L1G 0C5, CanadaFaculty of Energy Systems and Nuclear Science, Ontario Tech University, 2000 Simcoe Street North, Oshawa, ON L1G 0C5, CanadaFaculty of Energy Systems and Nuclear Science, Ontario Tech University, 2000 Simcoe Street North, Oshawa, ON L1G 0C5, CanadaDuring the last few years, nuclear energy has received great attention due to the increase in climate change awareness. According to the Paris agreement, global temperature is to be kept below 2 °C and preferably below 1.5 °C by 2050. This approach has been substantially confirmed in the recent COP 26 in Glasgow. This research investigates the effects of integrating SMR nuclear power plants (small modular reactors) into the Nordhaus Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) model for reducing the CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in the atmosphere by substituting all existing fossil-fueled power plants (FPPP). The software is based on the VENSIM dynamic systems modeling platform. Simulations were carried out from the year 2019 to 2100 using 10-year increments. Several scenarios were thus simulated replacing roughly 70,000 FPPPs operating at this time in the world. Simulations indicate a CO<sub>2</sub> reduction of approximately 12.63% relative to the initial conditions used and using 87,830 SMR core units of 80 MWe electric each to meet such demand. The DICE model further predicts the cost of climate damage impacting the upper ocean and atmospheric temperatures, and the deep ocean temperature as USD 1.515 trillion (US Dollar; (US) trillion = 1,000,000,000,000 (1 × 10<sup>12</sup>)) by the end of this century. From a modified section of the model, a cost of USD 1.073 trillion is predicted as the toll on human health costs. This is thus equal to a USD 2.59 trillion loss in the economy.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/10/3613climate change damagemodified VENSIM DICE modelsmall modular reactorssolar and wind power costs |
| spellingShingle | Elaheh Shobeiri Huan Shen Filippo Genco Akira Tokuhiro Investigating Long-Term Commitments to Replace Electricity Generation with SMRs and Estimates of Climate Change Impact Costs Using a Modified VENSIM Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) Model Energies climate change damage modified VENSIM DICE model small modular reactors solar and wind power costs |
| title | Investigating Long-Term Commitments to Replace Electricity Generation with SMRs and Estimates of Climate Change Impact Costs Using a Modified VENSIM Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) Model |
| title_full | Investigating Long-Term Commitments to Replace Electricity Generation with SMRs and Estimates of Climate Change Impact Costs Using a Modified VENSIM Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) Model |
| title_fullStr | Investigating Long-Term Commitments to Replace Electricity Generation with SMRs and Estimates of Climate Change Impact Costs Using a Modified VENSIM Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Investigating Long-Term Commitments to Replace Electricity Generation with SMRs and Estimates of Climate Change Impact Costs Using a Modified VENSIM Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) Model |
| title_short | Investigating Long-Term Commitments to Replace Electricity Generation with SMRs and Estimates of Climate Change Impact Costs Using a Modified VENSIM Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) Model |
| title_sort | investigating long term commitments to replace electricity generation with smrs and estimates of climate change impact costs using a modified vensim dynamic integrated climate economy dice model |
| topic | climate change damage modified VENSIM DICE model small modular reactors solar and wind power costs |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/10/3613 |
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