Diurnal surface fuel moisture prediction model for Calabrian pine stands in Turkey
This study presents a dynamic model for the prediction of diurnal changes in the moisture content of dead surface fuels in normally stocked Calabrian pine stands under varying weather conditions. The model was developed based on several empirical relationships between moisture contents of dead surfa...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Italian Society of Silviculture and Forest Ecology (SISEF)
2019-06-01
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| Series: | iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://iforest.sisef.org/contents/?id=ifor2870-012 |
| _version_ | 1818864003080781824 |
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| author | Bilgili E Coskuner KA Usta Y Saglam B Kucuk O Berber T Goltas M |
| author_facet | Bilgili E Coskuner KA Usta Y Saglam B Kucuk O Berber T Goltas M |
| author_sort | Bilgili E |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study presents a dynamic model for the prediction of diurnal changes in the moisture content of dead surface fuels in normally stocked Calabrian pine stands under varying weather conditions. The model was developed based on several empirical relationships between moisture contents of dead surface fuels and weather variables, and calibrated using field data collected from three Calabrian stands from three different regions of Turkey (Mugla, southwest; Antalya, south; Trabzon, north-east). The model was tested and validated with independent measurements of fuel moisture from two sets of field observations made during dry and rainy periods. Model predictions showed a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.19% for litter and 0.90% for duff at Mugla, and 3.62% for litter and 14.38% for duff at Antalya. When two rainy periods were excluded from the analysis at Antalya site, the MAE decreased from 14.38% to 4.29% and R2 increased from 0.25 to 0.83 for duff fuels. Graphical inspection and statistical validation of the model indicated that the diurnal litter and duff moisture dynamics could be predicted reasonably. The model can easily be adapted for other similar fuel types in the Mediterranean region. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T10:24:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5246c8f3349a40b094bb4c1d72f28244 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1971-7458 1971-7458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T10:24:44Z |
| publishDate | 2019-06-01 |
| publisher | Italian Society of Silviculture and Forest Ecology (SISEF) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry |
| spelling | doaj.art-5246c8f3349a40b094bb4c1d72f282442022-12-21T20:25:57ZengItalian Society of Silviculture and Forest Ecology (SISEF)iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry1971-74581971-74582019-06-0112126227110.3832/ifor2870-0122870Diurnal surface fuel moisture prediction model for Calabrian pine stands in TurkeyBilgili E0Coskuner KA1Usta Y2Saglam B3Kucuk O4Berber T5Goltas M6Karadeniz Technical University, Faculty of Forestry, 61080 Trabzon (Turkey)Karadeniz Technical University, Faculty of Forestry, 61080 Trabzon (Turkey)Karadeniz Technical University, Faculty of Forestry, 61080 Trabzon (Turkey)Artvin Coruh University, Faculty of Forestry, 08000 Artvin (Turkey)Kastamonu University, Faculty of Forestry, 37200 Kastamonu (Turkey)Karadeniz Technical University, Faculty of Science, 61080 Trabzon (Turkey)Istanbul University, Faculty of Forestry, 34100 Istanbul (Turkey)This study presents a dynamic model for the prediction of diurnal changes in the moisture content of dead surface fuels in normally stocked Calabrian pine stands under varying weather conditions. The model was developed based on several empirical relationships between moisture contents of dead surface fuels and weather variables, and calibrated using field data collected from three Calabrian stands from three different regions of Turkey (Mugla, southwest; Antalya, south; Trabzon, north-east). The model was tested and validated with independent measurements of fuel moisture from two sets of field observations made during dry and rainy periods. Model predictions showed a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.19% for litter and 0.90% for duff at Mugla, and 3.62% for litter and 14.38% for duff at Antalya. When two rainy periods were excluded from the analysis at Antalya site, the MAE decreased from 14.38% to 4.29% and R2 increased from 0.25 to 0.83 for duff fuels. Graphical inspection and statistical validation of the model indicated that the diurnal litter and duff moisture dynamics could be predicted reasonably. The model can easily be adapted for other similar fuel types in the Mediterranean region.https://iforest.sisef.org/contents/?id=ifor2870-012Fuel Moisture ContentModelingDrying RateVapor Pressure Deficit |
| spellingShingle | Bilgili E Coskuner KA Usta Y Saglam B Kucuk O Berber T Goltas M Diurnal surface fuel moisture prediction model for Calabrian pine stands in Turkey iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry Fuel Moisture Content Modeling Drying Rate Vapor Pressure Deficit |
| title | Diurnal surface fuel moisture prediction model for Calabrian pine stands in Turkey |
| title_full | Diurnal surface fuel moisture prediction model for Calabrian pine stands in Turkey |
| title_fullStr | Diurnal surface fuel moisture prediction model for Calabrian pine stands in Turkey |
| title_full_unstemmed | Diurnal surface fuel moisture prediction model for Calabrian pine stands in Turkey |
| title_short | Diurnal surface fuel moisture prediction model for Calabrian pine stands in Turkey |
| title_sort | diurnal surface fuel moisture prediction model for calabrian pine stands in turkey |
| topic | Fuel Moisture Content Modeling Drying Rate Vapor Pressure Deficit |
| url | https://iforest.sisef.org/contents/?id=ifor2870-012 |
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