Impact of short-lived non-CO2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming
Limiting global warming to any level requires limiting the total amount of CO _2 emissions, or staying within a CO _2 budget. Here we assess how emissions from short-lived non-CO _2 species like methane, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), black-carbon, and sulphates influence these CO _2 budgets. Our defaul...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075001 |
| _version_ | 1827871362564227072 |
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| author | Joeri Rogelj Malte Meinshausen Michiel Schaeffer Reto Knutti Keywan Riahi |
| author_facet | Joeri Rogelj Malte Meinshausen Michiel Schaeffer Reto Knutti Keywan Riahi |
| author_sort | Joeri Rogelj |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Limiting global warming to any level requires limiting the total amount of CO _2 emissions, or staying within a CO _2 budget. Here we assess how emissions from short-lived non-CO _2 species like methane, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), black-carbon, and sulphates influence these CO _2 budgets. Our default case, which assumes mitigation in all sectors and of all gases, results in a CO _2 budget between 2011–2100 of 340 PgC for a >66% chance of staying below 2°C, consistent with the assessment of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Extreme variations of air-pollutant emissions from black-carbon and sulphates influence this budget by about ±5%. In the hypothetical case of no methane or HFCs mitigation—which is unlikely when CO _2 is stringently reduced—the budgets would be much smaller (40% or up to 60%, respectively). However, assuming very stringent CH _4 mitigation as a sensitivity case, CO _2 budgets could be 25% higher. A limit on cumulative CO _2 emissions remains critical for temperature targets. Even a 25% higher CO _2 budget still means peaking global emissions in the next two decades, and achieving net zero CO _2 emissions during the third quarter of the 21st century. The leverage we have to affect the CO _2 budget by targeting non-CO _2 diminishes strongly along with CO _2 mitigation, because these are partly linked through economic and technological factors. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:09:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5260347ddf85434795f23a4dd6f72bc2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:09:24Z |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-5260347ddf85434795f23a4dd6f72bc22023-08-09T14:12:47ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262015-01-0110707500110.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075001Impact of short-lived non-CO2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warmingJoeri Rogelj0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061Malte Meinshausen1Michiel Schaeffer2Reto Knutti3Keywan Riahi4Energy (ENE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, (IIASA) Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich Universitätstrasse 16 , 8092 Zürich, SwitzerlandAustralian-German College of Climate & Energy Transitions, School of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne , 3010 Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; PRIMAP Group, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, GermanyClimate Analytics, Karl-Liebknechtstrasse 5, D-10178 Berlin, Germany; Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre , PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The NetherlandsInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich Universitätstrasse 16 , 8092 Zürich, SwitzerlandEnergy (ENE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, (IIASA) Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria; Graz University of Technology , Inffeldgasse, A-8010 Graz, AustriaLimiting global warming to any level requires limiting the total amount of CO _2 emissions, or staying within a CO _2 budget. Here we assess how emissions from short-lived non-CO _2 species like methane, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), black-carbon, and sulphates influence these CO _2 budgets. Our default case, which assumes mitigation in all sectors and of all gases, results in a CO _2 budget between 2011–2100 of 340 PgC for a >66% chance of staying below 2°C, consistent with the assessment of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Extreme variations of air-pollutant emissions from black-carbon and sulphates influence this budget by about ±5%. In the hypothetical case of no methane or HFCs mitigation—which is unlikely when CO _2 is stringently reduced—the budgets would be much smaller (40% or up to 60%, respectively). However, assuming very stringent CH _4 mitigation as a sensitivity case, CO _2 budgets could be 25% higher. A limit on cumulative CO _2 emissions remains critical for temperature targets. Even a 25% higher CO _2 budget still means peaking global emissions in the next two decades, and achieving net zero CO _2 emissions during the third quarter of the 21st century. The leverage we have to affect the CO _2 budget by targeting non-CO _2 diminishes strongly along with CO _2 mitigation, because these are partly linked through economic and technological factors.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075001climate changecarbon budgetcumulative carbonshort-lived climate pollutantsglobal warmingcarbon dioxide |
| spellingShingle | Joeri Rogelj Malte Meinshausen Michiel Schaeffer Reto Knutti Keywan Riahi Impact of short-lived non-CO2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming Environmental Research Letters climate change carbon budget cumulative carbon short-lived climate pollutants global warming carbon dioxide |
| title | Impact of short-lived non-CO2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming |
| title_full | Impact of short-lived non-CO2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming |
| title_fullStr | Impact of short-lived non-CO2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of short-lived non-CO2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming |
| title_short | Impact of short-lived non-CO2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming |
| title_sort | impact of short lived non co2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming |
| topic | climate change carbon budget cumulative carbon short-lived climate pollutants global warming carbon dioxide |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075001 |
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