The Relationship Between Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Turkey
In economic literature, the idea that inflation increases inflation uncertainty, starting by Okun (1971) and later resuming as Friedman — Ball Hypothesis, has created new discussions about the degree and the direction of the relationship between both variables. The aim of this study is to investig...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch
2014-12-01
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| Series: | Экономика региона |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://economyofregion.com/archive/2014/51/2470/pdf/ |
| _version_ | 1797724108195102720 |
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| author | Havvanur Feyza Erdem Rahmi Yamak |
| author_facet | Havvanur Feyza Erdem Rahmi Yamak |
| author_sort | Havvanur Feyza Erdem |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In economic literature, the idea that inflation increases inflation uncertainty, starting by Okun (1971) and
later resuming as Friedman — Ball Hypothesis, has created new discussions about the degree and the direction
of the relationship between both variables. The aim of this study is to investigate the causal relationship
between inflation and inflation uncertainty and compare the causal relationship for high and low inflation
periods in Turkish Economy. The data used in the study are monthly and cover the period of 1988-2010. The
whole period has been divided into two sub-periods as 1988-2004 and 2004-2010 to compare high and low
inflation periods. In this study, in order to get data on the inflation uncertainty, the optimal ARIMA model
was estimated by using Kalman Filter analysis technique. The relationship between inflation and inflation
uncertainty was finally tested by using Granger Causality analysis for two periods. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T10:12:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-527e761a4fc6485fa86ef30895d98503 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2072-6414 2411-1406 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T10:12:38Z |
| publishDate | 2014-12-01 |
| publisher | Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Экономика региона |
| spelling | doaj.art-527e761a4fc6485fa86ef30895d985032023-09-02T10:46:33ZengRussian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economics of the Ural BranchЭкономика региона2072-64142411-14062014-12-012014424625410.17059/2014-4-21The Relationship Between Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In TurkeyHavvanur Feyza Erdem 0Rahmi Yamak 1Karadeniz Technical UniversityKaradeniz Technical UniversityIn economic literature, the idea that inflation increases inflation uncertainty, starting by Okun (1971) and later resuming as Friedman — Ball Hypothesis, has created new discussions about the degree and the direction of the relationship between both variables. The aim of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty and compare the causal relationship for high and low inflation periods in Turkish Economy. The data used in the study are monthly and cover the period of 1988-2010. The whole period has been divided into two sub-periods as 1988-2004 and 2004-2010 to compare high and low inflation periods. In this study, in order to get data on the inflation uncertainty, the optimal ARIMA model was estimated by using Kalman Filter analysis technique. The relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty was finally tested by using Granger Causality analysis for two periods.http://economyofregion.com/archive/2014/51/2470/pdf/inflationinflation uncertaintyTurkish EconomyKalman Filter AnalysisGranger Causality |
| spellingShingle | Havvanur Feyza Erdem Rahmi Yamak The Relationship Between Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Turkey Экономика региона inflation inflation uncertainty Turkish Economy Kalman Filter Analysis Granger Causality |
| title | The Relationship Between Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Turkey |
| title_full | The Relationship Between Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Turkey |
| title_fullStr | The Relationship Between Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Turkey |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Relationship Between Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Turkey |
| title_short | The Relationship Between Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Turkey |
| title_sort | relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in turkey |
| topic | inflation inflation uncertainty Turkish Economy Kalman Filter Analysis Granger Causality |
| url | http://economyofregion.com/archive/2014/51/2470/pdf/ |
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