Assessing the probability of extremely low wind energy production in Europe at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales
The European energy system will undergo major transformations in the coming decades to implement mitigation measures and comply with the Paris Agreement. In particular, the share of weather-dependent wind generation will increase significantly in the European energy mix. The most extreme fluctuation...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad35d9 |
| _version_ | 1797238392850743296 |
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| author | Bastien Cozian Corentin Herbert Freddy Bouchet |
| author_facet | Bastien Cozian Corentin Herbert Freddy Bouchet |
| author_sort | Bastien Cozian |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The European energy system will undergo major transformations in the coming decades to implement mitigation measures and comply with the Paris Agreement. In particular, the share of weather-dependent wind generation will increase significantly in the European energy mix. The most extreme fluctuations of the production at all time scales need to be taken into account in the design of the power system. In particular, extreme long-lasting low wind energy production events constitute a specific challenge, as most flexibility solutions do not apply at time scales beyond a few days. However, the probability and amplitude of such events has to a large extent eluded quantitative study so far due to lack of sufficiently long data. In this letter, using a 1000-year climate simulation, we study rare events of wind energy production that last from a few weeks to a few months over the January–February period, at the scale of a continent (Europe) and a country (France). The results show that the fluctuations of the capacity factor over Europe exhibit nearly Gaussian statistics at all time scales. A similar result holds over France for events longer than about two weeks and return times up to a few decades. In that case, the return time curves follow a universal curve. Furthermore, a simple Gaussian process with the same covariance structure as the data gives good estimates of the amplitude of the most extreme events. This method allows to estimate return times for rare events from shorter but more accurate data sources. We demonstrate this possibility with reanalysis data. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T17:34:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5280c36290ad47faa1704f3f0cc9bc0c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T17:34:55Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-5280c36290ad47faa1704f3f0cc9bc0c2024-03-28T05:55:33ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262024-01-0119404404610.1088/1748-9326/ad35d9Assessing the probability of extremely low wind energy production in Europe at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scalesBastien Cozian0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0572-0907Corentin Herbert1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8705-624XFreddy Bouchet2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1623-0818ENS de Lyon, UCBL, CNRS, Laboratoire de physique , F-69342 Lyon, FranceENS de Lyon, CNRS, Laboratoire de physique , F-69342 Lyon, FranceENS de Lyon, CNRS, Laboratoire de physique , F-69342 Lyon, FranceThe European energy system will undergo major transformations in the coming decades to implement mitigation measures and comply with the Paris Agreement. In particular, the share of weather-dependent wind generation will increase significantly in the European energy mix. The most extreme fluctuations of the production at all time scales need to be taken into account in the design of the power system. In particular, extreme long-lasting low wind energy production events constitute a specific challenge, as most flexibility solutions do not apply at time scales beyond a few days. However, the probability and amplitude of such events has to a large extent eluded quantitative study so far due to lack of sufficiently long data. In this letter, using a 1000-year climate simulation, we study rare events of wind energy production that last from a few weeks to a few months over the January–February period, at the scale of a continent (Europe) and a country (France). The results show that the fluctuations of the capacity factor over Europe exhibit nearly Gaussian statistics at all time scales. A similar result holds over France for events longer than about two weeks and return times up to a few decades. In that case, the return time curves follow a universal curve. Furthermore, a simple Gaussian process with the same covariance structure as the data gives good estimates of the amplitude of the most extreme events. This method allows to estimate return times for rare events from shorter but more accurate data sources. We demonstrate this possibility with reanalysis data.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad35d9rare eventswind energy productionenergy meteorology |
| spellingShingle | Bastien Cozian Corentin Herbert Freddy Bouchet Assessing the probability of extremely low wind energy production in Europe at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales Environmental Research Letters rare events wind energy production energy meteorology |
| title | Assessing the probability of extremely low wind energy production in Europe at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales |
| title_full | Assessing the probability of extremely low wind energy production in Europe at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the probability of extremely low wind energy production in Europe at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the probability of extremely low wind energy production in Europe at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales |
| title_short | Assessing the probability of extremely low wind energy production in Europe at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales |
| title_sort | assessing the probability of extremely low wind energy production in europe at sub seasonal to seasonal time scales |
| topic | rare events wind energy production energy meteorology |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad35d9 |
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