Predicting the Suitable Habitat of Treeline Species in the Nepalese Himalayas Under Climate Change
The response of treeline-forming species to global climate change is uncertain. While numerous treeline species have recently experienced range advance along their upper elevational boundary, this has been species- and region-dependent. Making an accurate prediction of how taxa will respond is essen...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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International Mountain Society
2018-05-01
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| Series: | Mountain Research and Development |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.bioone.org/doi/full/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-17-00071.1 |
| _version_ | 1828859719596376064 |
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| author | Parveen K. Chhetri Keith D. Gaddis David M. Cairns |
| author_facet | Parveen K. Chhetri Keith D. Gaddis David M. Cairns |
| author_sort | Parveen K. Chhetri |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The response of treeline-forming species to global climate change is uncertain. While numerous treeline species have recently experienced range advance along their upper elevational boundary, this has been species- and region-dependent. Making an accurate prediction of how taxa will respond is essential for conservation and land management, as treeline advance is likely to result in a loss of alpine biodiversity through habitat change and fragmentation. Predicting any species response requires an understanding of the current physical and climatic determinants of its distribution. We used the Maxent species distribution modeling software to predict the likelihood of treeline advance in the Nepalese Himalayas by modeling the extent of suitable habitats for 3 dominant treeline species—Abies spectabilis, Betula utilis, and Pinus wallichiana—under present and projected climate conditions. Temperature-related climatic variables and elevation explained the greatest amount of variance in the distribution of the study species. Under projected climate conditions, we found a regional increase in suitable habitat for all 3 treeline species, predicting a potential for northward and upslope advance. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T02:24:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-52c782a25bf440cdb5b47bd731736f16 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0276-4741 1994-7151 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T02:24:08Z |
| publishDate | 2018-05-01 |
| publisher | International Mountain Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mountain Research and Development |
| spelling | doaj.art-52c782a25bf440cdb5b47bd731736f162022-12-22T00:02:41ZengInternational Mountain SocietyMountain Research and Development0276-47411994-71512018-05-0138215316310.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-17-00071.1Predicting the Suitable Habitat of Treeline Species in the Nepalese Himalayas Under Climate ChangeParveen K. Chhetri0Keith D. Gaddis1David M. Cairns2Department of Earth Science and Geography, California State University Dominguez Hills, 1000 E. Victoria St, Carson, CA 90747, USA; pchhetri@csudh.eduNASA Earth Science Division, NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC 20546-0001, USADepartment of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-3147, USAThe response of treeline-forming species to global climate change is uncertain. While numerous treeline species have recently experienced range advance along their upper elevational boundary, this has been species- and region-dependent. Making an accurate prediction of how taxa will respond is essential for conservation and land management, as treeline advance is likely to result in a loss of alpine biodiversity through habitat change and fragmentation. Predicting any species response requires an understanding of the current physical and climatic determinants of its distribution. We used the Maxent species distribution modeling software to predict the likelihood of treeline advance in the Nepalese Himalayas by modeling the extent of suitable habitats for 3 dominant treeline species—Abies spectabilis, Betula utilis, and Pinus wallichiana—under present and projected climate conditions. Temperature-related climatic variables and elevation explained the greatest amount of variance in the distribution of the study species. Under projected climate conditions, we found a regional increase in suitable habitat for all 3 treeline species, predicting a potential for northward and upslope advance.http://www.bioone.org/doi/full/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-17-00071.1treelineclimate changespecies distribution modelingHimalayaNepaldistribution rangeNepal |
| spellingShingle | Parveen K. Chhetri Keith D. Gaddis David M. Cairns Predicting the Suitable Habitat of Treeline Species in the Nepalese Himalayas Under Climate Change Mountain Research and Development treeline climate change species distribution modeling Himalaya Nepal distribution range Nepal |
| title | Predicting the Suitable Habitat of Treeline Species in the Nepalese Himalayas Under Climate Change |
| title_full | Predicting the Suitable Habitat of Treeline Species in the Nepalese Himalayas Under Climate Change |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the Suitable Habitat of Treeline Species in the Nepalese Himalayas Under Climate Change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the Suitable Habitat of Treeline Species in the Nepalese Himalayas Under Climate Change |
| title_short | Predicting the Suitable Habitat of Treeline Species in the Nepalese Himalayas Under Climate Change |
| title_sort | predicting the suitable habitat of treeline species in the nepalese himalayas under climate change |
| topic | treeline climate change species distribution modeling Himalaya Nepal distribution range Nepal |
| url | http://www.bioone.org/doi/full/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-17-00071.1 |
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