Mid- to long-term capacity planning for a reliable power system in Kenya
Over the coming decades, Kenya is likely to see a large increase in electricity demand driven by economic growth and wider electrification of different sectors. At the same time, Kenya remains committed to maintain its high share of renewable generation. This study proposes a novel framework to soft...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Energy Strategy Reviews |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X24000191 |
| _version_ | 1797235601398824960 |
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| author | Mungai Kihara Pietro Lubello Ariane Millot Michelle Akute Julius Kilonzi Monicah Kitili Felister Mukuri Boniface Kinyanjui Pooya Hoseinpoori Adam Hawkes Abhishek Shivakumar Dan Welsby Steve Pye |
| author_facet | Mungai Kihara Pietro Lubello Ariane Millot Michelle Akute Julius Kilonzi Monicah Kitili Felister Mukuri Boniface Kinyanjui Pooya Hoseinpoori Adam Hawkes Abhishek Shivakumar Dan Welsby Steve Pye |
| author_sort | Mungai Kihara |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Over the coming decades, Kenya is likely to see a large increase in electricity demand driven by economic growth and wider electrification of different sectors. At the same time, Kenya remains committed to maintain its high share of renewable generation. This study proposes a novel framework to soft link OSeMOSYS, a capacity expansion model (CEM), and FlexTool, a production cost model (PCM), to address the limitations of CEMs in the representation of variable renewable energy sources. Results show the effectiveness of the methodology in identifying critical grid issues that would have been missed by the capacity expansion model alone, especially in the case of a higher penetration of non-dispatchable sources. They also confirm that based on robust planning approaches, Kenya is well placed to maintain its very low carbon generation system under different demand growth projections, leveraging on firm generation from geothermal and high wind potential. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T10:15:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-52fdb5e9326c44c0acc568df35bc9010 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2211-467X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T16:50:33Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy Strategy Reviews |
| spelling | doaj.art-52fdb5e9326c44c0acc568df35bc90102024-03-29T05:49:57ZengElsevierEnergy Strategy Reviews2211-467X2024-03-0152101312Mid- to long-term capacity planning for a reliable power system in KenyaMungai Kihara0Pietro Lubello1Ariane Millot2Michelle Akute3Julius Kilonzi4Monicah Kitili5Felister Mukuri6Boniface Kinyanjui7Pooya Hoseinpoori8Adam Hawkes9Abhishek Shivakumar10Dan Welsby11Steve Pye12Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, Nairobi, KenyaUCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK; Corresponding author.Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UKKenya Power and Lighting Company Plc., Nairobi, Kenya; Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority, Nairobi, KenyaKenya Power and Lighting Company Plc., Nairobi, KenyaEnergy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority, Nairobi, KenyaKenya Power and Lighting Company Plc., Nairobi, KenyaKenya Power and Lighting Company Plc., Nairobi, KenyaDepartment of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UKDepartment of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UKTransition Zero, London, UKUCL Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UKUCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UKOver the coming decades, Kenya is likely to see a large increase in electricity demand driven by economic growth and wider electrification of different sectors. At the same time, Kenya remains committed to maintain its high share of renewable generation. This study proposes a novel framework to soft link OSeMOSYS, a capacity expansion model (CEM), and FlexTool, a production cost model (PCM), to address the limitations of CEMs in the representation of variable renewable energy sources. Results show the effectiveness of the methodology in identifying critical grid issues that would have been missed by the capacity expansion model alone, especially in the case of a higher penetration of non-dispatchable sources. They also confirm that based on robust planning approaches, Kenya is well placed to maintain its very low carbon generation system under different demand growth projections, leveraging on firm generation from geothermal and high wind potential.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X24000191KenyaEnergy modellingPower system planningEnergy scenariosSoft linking |
| spellingShingle | Mungai Kihara Pietro Lubello Ariane Millot Michelle Akute Julius Kilonzi Monicah Kitili Felister Mukuri Boniface Kinyanjui Pooya Hoseinpoori Adam Hawkes Abhishek Shivakumar Dan Welsby Steve Pye Mid- to long-term capacity planning for a reliable power system in Kenya Energy Strategy Reviews Kenya Energy modelling Power system planning Energy scenarios Soft linking |
| title | Mid- to long-term capacity planning for a reliable power system in Kenya |
| title_full | Mid- to long-term capacity planning for a reliable power system in Kenya |
| title_fullStr | Mid- to long-term capacity planning for a reliable power system in Kenya |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mid- to long-term capacity planning for a reliable power system in Kenya |
| title_short | Mid- to long-term capacity planning for a reliable power system in Kenya |
| title_sort | mid to long term capacity planning for a reliable power system in kenya |
| topic | Kenya Energy modelling Power system planning Energy scenarios Soft linking |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X24000191 |
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