Analyzing the Inflation, Output Growth, and Economic Stability in Iran
In this paper, output growth and inflation were examined in Iran by using a dynamic aggregate supply and aggregate demand model during 1971-2013. For this purpose, at first the relationships among time series were evaluated. Then, the structure of the Iranian macroeconomy was used to design the stru...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
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Tarbiat Modares University
2017-09-01
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| Series: | پژوهشهای اقتصادی |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-12052-en.pdf |
| _version_ | 1827924944700309504 |
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| author | Seyed Habibollah Mosavi Shiva Soltani |
| author_facet | Seyed Habibollah Mosavi Shiva Soltani |
| author_sort | Seyed Habibollah Mosavi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this paper, output growth and inflation were examined in Iran by using a dynamic aggregate supply and aggregate demand model during 1971-2013. For this purpose, at first the relationships among time series were evaluated. Then, the structure of the Iranian macroeconomy was used to design the structural Vector Auto-regression (VAR) models. Empirical results showed that shocks to terms of trade, monetary and fiscal policy will have positive effects on the inflationary process. Furthermore, output is mostly driven by fiscal and supply shocks. The results of variance decomposition implied that the inflationary effect of expansionary fiscal policy is far greater than increasing in output. In addition, calculated core inflation showed that the inflation in Iran has roots in demand side of the economy. Therefore, this paper recommends the demand side management policies, i.e., contractionary fiscal and monetary policies, which guarantee the output growth and decrease in inflation rate. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T05:18:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-534842d544604593b2af7eea56726827 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1735-6768 2980-7832 |
| language | fas |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T05:18:06Z |
| publishDate | 2017-09-01 |
| publisher | Tarbiat Modares University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | پژوهشهای اقتصادی |
| spelling | doaj.art-534842d544604593b2af7eea567268272023-06-15T20:22:35ZfasTarbiat Modares Universityپژوهشهای اقتصادی1735-67682980-78322017-09-011737799Analyzing the Inflation, Output Growth, and Economic Stability in IranSeyed Habibollah Mosavi0Shiva Soltani1 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University Ph.D. Candidate in Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University In this paper, output growth and inflation were examined in Iran by using a dynamic aggregate supply and aggregate demand model during 1971-2013. For this purpose, at first the relationships among time series were evaluated. Then, the structure of the Iranian macroeconomy was used to design the structural Vector Auto-regression (VAR) models. Empirical results showed that shocks to terms of trade, monetary and fiscal policy will have positive effects on the inflationary process. Furthermore, output is mostly driven by fiscal and supply shocks. The results of variance decomposition implied that the inflationary effect of expansionary fiscal policy is far greater than increasing in output. In addition, calculated core inflation showed that the inflation in Iran has roots in demand side of the economy. Therefore, this paper recommends the demand side management policies, i.e., contractionary fiscal and monetary policies, which guarantee the output growth and decrease in inflation rate.http://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-12052-en.pdfinflationoutput growthstructural varcore inflationiran’s economy |
| spellingShingle | Seyed Habibollah Mosavi Shiva Soltani Analyzing the Inflation, Output Growth, and Economic Stability in Iran پژوهشهای اقتصادی inflation output growth structural var core inflation iran’s economy |
| title | Analyzing the Inflation, Output Growth, and Economic Stability in Iran |
| title_full | Analyzing the Inflation, Output Growth, and Economic Stability in Iran |
| title_fullStr | Analyzing the Inflation, Output Growth, and Economic Stability in Iran |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analyzing the Inflation, Output Growth, and Economic Stability in Iran |
| title_short | Analyzing the Inflation, Output Growth, and Economic Stability in Iran |
| title_sort | analyzing the inflation output growth and economic stability in iran |
| topic | inflation output growth structural var core inflation iran’s economy |
| url | http://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-12052-en.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT seyedhabibollahmosavi analyzingtheinflationoutputgrowthandeconomicstabilityiniran AT shivasoltani analyzingtheinflationoutputgrowthandeconomicstabilityiniran |