A Non-Stationary and Directional Probabilistic Analysis of Coastal Storms in the Greek Seas
The variability of coastal storms over the years and direction is considered in a unified, innovative approach, providing crucial information for a wide variety of coastal engineering studies and wave energy applications under the impact of climatic change. Specifically, an alternative easy-to-apply...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/13/2455 |
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| author | Dimitra I. Malliouri Vyron Moraitis Stelios Petrakis Dimitrios Vandarakis Georgios-Angelos Hatiris Vasilios Kapsimalis |
| author_facet | Dimitra I. Malliouri Vyron Moraitis Stelios Petrakis Dimitrios Vandarakis Georgios-Angelos Hatiris Vasilios Kapsimalis |
| author_sort | Dimitra I. Malliouri |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The variability of coastal storms over the years and direction is considered in a unified, innovative approach, providing crucial information for a wide variety of coastal engineering studies and wave energy applications under the impact of climatic change. Specifically, an alternative easy-to-apply technique is presented and applied to consider the storms’ direction as a covariate. This technique enables the probabilistic representation of coastal storms in every direction over the directional domain and is efficiently incorporated into a non-stationary directional extreme value analysis. The developed methodology is applied to six locations in the Greek Seas. Based on the derived results, the most likely and most extreme significant wave height estimates present, in general, a bimodal behavior with pronounced maxima. In particular, the first peak is observed before the twenty-first century, while the second peak is likely to occur around the middle of the twenty-first century. Furthermore, coastal storms coming from directions of large fetches are the most severe storms, presenting though a drop in their intensity at the end of the twenty-first century. On the contrary, coastal storms of fetch-limited directions may present minor variations in their probability distributions over the years. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T01:25:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-536275a5669f4864bd9e52d525c068d6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T01:25:22Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-536275a5669f4864bd9e52d525c068d62023-11-18T17:48:32ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412023-07-011513245510.3390/w15132455A Non-Stationary and Directional Probabilistic Analysis of Coastal Storms in the Greek SeasDimitra I. Malliouri0Vyron Moraitis1Stelios Petrakis2Dimitrios Vandarakis3Georgios-Angelos Hatiris4Vasilios Kapsimalis5Hydrobiological Station of Rhodes, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Cos Street, 85131 Rhodes, GreeceHydrobiological Station of Rhodes, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Cos Street, 85131 Rhodes, GreeceHydrobiological Station of Rhodes, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Cos Street, 85131 Rhodes, GreeceHydrobiological Station of Rhodes, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Cos Street, 85131 Rhodes, GreeceHydrobiological Station of Rhodes, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Cos Street, 85131 Rhodes, GreeceHellenic Centre for Marine Research, Institute of Oceanography, 46.7 km Athens-Sounio Ave., 19013 Anavyssos, GreeceThe variability of coastal storms over the years and direction is considered in a unified, innovative approach, providing crucial information for a wide variety of coastal engineering studies and wave energy applications under the impact of climatic change. Specifically, an alternative easy-to-apply technique is presented and applied to consider the storms’ direction as a covariate. This technique enables the probabilistic representation of coastal storms in every direction over the directional domain and is efficiently incorporated into a non-stationary directional extreme value analysis. The developed methodology is applied to six locations in the Greek Seas. Based on the derived results, the most likely and most extreme significant wave height estimates present, in general, a bimodal behavior with pronounced maxima. In particular, the first peak is observed before the twenty-first century, while the second peak is likely to occur around the middle of the twenty-first century. Furthermore, coastal storms coming from directions of large fetches are the most severe storms, presenting though a drop in their intensity at the end of the twenty-first century. On the contrary, coastal storms of fetch-limited directions may present minor variations in their probability distributions over the years.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/13/2455coastal stormsdirectional modellong-term variabilitynon-stationaryclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Dimitra I. Malliouri Vyron Moraitis Stelios Petrakis Dimitrios Vandarakis Georgios-Angelos Hatiris Vasilios Kapsimalis A Non-Stationary and Directional Probabilistic Analysis of Coastal Storms in the Greek Seas Water coastal storms directional model long-term variability non-stationary climate change |
| title | A Non-Stationary and Directional Probabilistic Analysis of Coastal Storms in the Greek Seas |
| title_full | A Non-Stationary and Directional Probabilistic Analysis of Coastal Storms in the Greek Seas |
| title_fullStr | A Non-Stationary and Directional Probabilistic Analysis of Coastal Storms in the Greek Seas |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Non-Stationary and Directional Probabilistic Analysis of Coastal Storms in the Greek Seas |
| title_short | A Non-Stationary and Directional Probabilistic Analysis of Coastal Storms in the Greek Seas |
| title_sort | non stationary and directional probabilistic analysis of coastal storms in the greek seas |
| topic | coastal storms directional model long-term variability non-stationary climate change |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/13/2455 |
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