An assessment of recent Iranian fertility trends using parity progression ratios
<b>Background</b>: In 2013 a draft population bill was introduced in the Iranian Parliament. Based on the presumption that fertility in Iran had fallen to a very low level, the bill proposed a wide range of pronatalist policies with the aim of increasing fertility to 2.5 births per woman...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
2015-06-01
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| Series: | Demographic Research |
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| Online Access: | http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/58/ |
| _version_ | 1811274213631197184 |
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| author | Peter McDonald Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi Arash Rashidian |
| author_facet | Peter McDonald Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi Arash Rashidian |
| author_sort | Peter McDonald |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <b>Background</b>: In 2013 a draft population bill was introduced in the Iranian Parliament. Based on the presumption that fertility in Iran had fallen to a very low level, the bill proposed a wide range of pronatalist policies with the aim of increasing fertility to 2.5 births per woman. The draft law called for restrictions on the employment of women and young single people and inducements for women to marry in their late teens. New estimates of fertility, such as those provided in this paper, cast doubt upon the view that fertility had fallen to a very low level. In May 2014 a statement issued by the Supreme Leader provided guidelines for a more moderate approach to sustaining fertility at around the replacement level. <b>Objective</b>: To measure the trend in fertility in Iran, especially from 2000 onwards. <b>Methods</b>: Using the 2010 IDHS, the synthetic cohort parity progression ratio method is used to measure the fertility trend in Iran. Synthetic parity progressions are compared with real cohort parity progressions to examine the presence of tempo effects. Comparison is made with age-based measures from surveys, censuses, and the birth registration system. <b>Results</b>: This paper demonstrates that fertility in Iran was constant for the decade 2000-2009, at a level of around 1.8-2.0 births per woman. <b>Conclusions</b>: Our findings provide evidence supporting a more moderate approach to sustaining fertility in Iran at around the replacement level. <b>Comments</b>: The paper demonstrates the advantages of parity-based measurement over age-based measurement when tempo effects may be involved. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T23:14:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-53796ca606164bab9339e31e439ac1b2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1435-9871 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T23:14:52Z |
| publishDate | 2015-06-01 |
| publisher | Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Demographic Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-53796ca606164bab9339e31e439ac1b22022-12-22T03:12:43ZengMax Planck Institute for Demographic ResearchDemographic Research1435-98712015-06-01325810.4054/DemRes.2015.32.582677An assessment of recent Iranian fertility trends using parity progression ratiosPeter McDonald0Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi1Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi2Arash Rashidian3Australian National UniversityAustralian National UniversityUniversity of TehranTehran University of Medical Sciences<b>Background</b>: In 2013 a draft population bill was introduced in the Iranian Parliament. Based on the presumption that fertility in Iran had fallen to a very low level, the bill proposed a wide range of pronatalist policies with the aim of increasing fertility to 2.5 births per woman. The draft law called for restrictions on the employment of women and young single people and inducements for women to marry in their late teens. New estimates of fertility, such as those provided in this paper, cast doubt upon the view that fertility had fallen to a very low level. In May 2014 a statement issued by the Supreme Leader provided guidelines for a more moderate approach to sustaining fertility at around the replacement level. <b>Objective</b>: To measure the trend in fertility in Iran, especially from 2000 onwards. <b>Methods</b>: Using the 2010 IDHS, the synthetic cohort parity progression ratio method is used to measure the fertility trend in Iran. Synthetic parity progressions are compared with real cohort parity progressions to examine the presence of tempo effects. Comparison is made with age-based measures from surveys, censuses, and the birth registration system. <b>Results</b>: This paper demonstrates that fertility in Iran was constant for the decade 2000-2009, at a level of around 1.8-2.0 births per woman. <b>Conclusions</b>: Our findings provide evidence supporting a more moderate approach to sustaining fertility in Iran at around the replacement level. <b>Comments</b>: The paper demonstrates the advantages of parity-based measurement over age-based measurement when tempo effects may be involved.http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/58/fertilityIranparity progressionpronatalist policy |
| spellingShingle | Peter McDonald Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi Arash Rashidian An assessment of recent Iranian fertility trends using parity progression ratios Demographic Research fertility Iran parity progression pronatalist policy |
| title | An assessment of recent Iranian fertility trends using parity progression ratios |
| title_full | An assessment of recent Iranian fertility trends using parity progression ratios |
| title_fullStr | An assessment of recent Iranian fertility trends using parity progression ratios |
| title_full_unstemmed | An assessment of recent Iranian fertility trends using parity progression ratios |
| title_short | An assessment of recent Iranian fertility trends using parity progression ratios |
| title_sort | assessment of recent iranian fertility trends using parity progression ratios |
| topic | fertility Iran parity progression pronatalist policy |
| url | http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol32/58/ |
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