Attribution of the Extreme Drought in the Horn of Africa during Short-Rains of 2016 and Long-Rains of 2017
The Horn of Africa (HOA) is one of the most drought-prone regions in the world with many arid and semiarid areas, and even some extremely arid areas. Primarily affected by the marine continental climate systems, this zone is really sensitive to global warming. Drought is the main type of natural dis...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/3/409 |
| _version_ | 1797483992841191424 |
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| author | Xue Han Yan Li Weidong Yu Licheng Feng |
| author_facet | Xue Han Yan Li Weidong Yu Licheng Feng |
| author_sort | Xue Han |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Horn of Africa (HOA) is one of the most drought-prone regions in the world with many arid and semiarid areas, and even some extremely arid areas. Primarily affected by the marine continental climate systems, this zone is really sensitive to global warming. Drought is the main type of natural disaster affecting this region, which triggers famine, civil conflict, and even deterioration of food security. The present study examined changes in droughts in the HOA during 1979–2019 based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Results show that frequency, duration, and intensity of droughts exhibited an increasing trend over the past decades. Moreover, in October to December (called locate “short rains”) 2016 and March to May (called locate “long rains”) 2017, the HOA experienced the most severe drought. Based on Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) fitting, the 2016/2017 SPEI index corresponds to a drought that occurs every 250 years in the observational records. However, considering the precipitation in short rains of 2016 (long rains of 2017) was only 27.1% (11.8%) less than normal, it is hard to explain the formation of this extreme drought only from precipitation anomalies. Further statistical result shows that the evaporation in 2016/2017 corresponds to a 1-in-131 years event in the observed records. The abnormally high temperature (1.02 °C higher than normal) as well as the greatest potential evaporation since 1979 are the more important causes for the formation of drought. Thus, the extreme drought in 2016/2017, probably caused by the combined effect of dry condition and high temperature simultaneously, and the latter, played a leading role. In other words, droughts can be exacerbated by the co-occurrence of extreme high temperature. With continuous warming caused by anthropogenic activities in the next decades, the Horn of Africa may be a hotspot of the compound droughts and, therefore, it is especially important to considering the combined impacts from less precipitation and high temperature when predicting the future drought trend and making adaptation measures. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T22:56:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-53923359abf34cccbc35d672f02c8aff |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T22:56:07Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-53923359abf34cccbc35d672f02c8aff2023-11-23T18:11:15ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412022-01-0114340910.3390/w14030409Attribution of the Extreme Drought in the Horn of Africa during Short-Rains of 2016 and Long-Rains of 2017Xue Han0Yan Li1Weidong Yu2Licheng Feng3National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, ChinaCollege of Life Sciences and Oceanography, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518061, ChinaSchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai 510275, ChinaNational Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, ChinaThe Horn of Africa (HOA) is one of the most drought-prone regions in the world with many arid and semiarid areas, and even some extremely arid areas. Primarily affected by the marine continental climate systems, this zone is really sensitive to global warming. Drought is the main type of natural disaster affecting this region, which triggers famine, civil conflict, and even deterioration of food security. The present study examined changes in droughts in the HOA during 1979–2019 based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Results show that frequency, duration, and intensity of droughts exhibited an increasing trend over the past decades. Moreover, in October to December (called locate “short rains”) 2016 and March to May (called locate “long rains”) 2017, the HOA experienced the most severe drought. Based on Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) fitting, the 2016/2017 SPEI index corresponds to a drought that occurs every 250 years in the observational records. However, considering the precipitation in short rains of 2016 (long rains of 2017) was only 27.1% (11.8%) less than normal, it is hard to explain the formation of this extreme drought only from precipitation anomalies. Further statistical result shows that the evaporation in 2016/2017 corresponds to a 1-in-131 years event in the observed records. The abnormally high temperature (1.02 °C higher than normal) as well as the greatest potential evaporation since 1979 are the more important causes for the formation of drought. Thus, the extreme drought in 2016/2017, probably caused by the combined effect of dry condition and high temperature simultaneously, and the latter, played a leading role. In other words, droughts can be exacerbated by the co-occurrence of extreme high temperature. With continuous warming caused by anthropogenic activities in the next decades, the Horn of Africa may be a hotspot of the compound droughts and, therefore, it is especially important to considering the combined impacts from less precipitation and high temperature when predicting the future drought trend and making adaptation measures.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/3/409the Horn of Africaextreme eventsdroughtcompound droughtglobal warming |
| spellingShingle | Xue Han Yan Li Weidong Yu Licheng Feng Attribution of the Extreme Drought in the Horn of Africa during Short-Rains of 2016 and Long-Rains of 2017 Water the Horn of Africa extreme events drought compound drought global warming |
| title | Attribution of the Extreme Drought in the Horn of Africa during Short-Rains of 2016 and Long-Rains of 2017 |
| title_full | Attribution of the Extreme Drought in the Horn of Africa during Short-Rains of 2016 and Long-Rains of 2017 |
| title_fullStr | Attribution of the Extreme Drought in the Horn of Africa during Short-Rains of 2016 and Long-Rains of 2017 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Attribution of the Extreme Drought in the Horn of Africa during Short-Rains of 2016 and Long-Rains of 2017 |
| title_short | Attribution of the Extreme Drought in the Horn of Africa during Short-Rains of 2016 and Long-Rains of 2017 |
| title_sort | attribution of the extreme drought in the horn of africa during short rains of 2016 and long rains of 2017 |
| topic | the Horn of Africa extreme events drought compound drought global warming |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/3/409 |
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