Underestimating the uncertainty of aggregated results: the case of W-Boson mass
Abstract Estimates of uncertainty or variance in experimental means are central to physics. This is especially the case for ‘world averages’ of fundamental parameters in particle physics, which aggregate results from a number of experiments to express current knowledge about these parameters and whe...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SpringerOpen
2023-09-01
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| Series: | European Physical Journal C: Particles and Fields |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1140/epjc/s10052-023-11973-2 |
| _version_ | 1797647187632455680 |
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| author | Fintan Costello Paul Watts |
| author_facet | Fintan Costello Paul Watts |
| author_sort | Fintan Costello |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Estimates of uncertainty or variance in experimental means are central to physics. This is especially the case for ‘world averages’ of fundamental parameters in particle physics, which aggregate results from a number of experiments to express current knowledge about these parameters and where variances in these world averages reflect uncertainty in that knowledge. The standard aggregation method used in Particle Data Group reports to estimate such parameters is a form of fixed-effect meta-analysis. One problem with the fixed-effect approach is that it assumes no random variation between experiments (that is, no variation in experimental accuracy, which becomes increasingly important as experimental precision rises). This problem is well-known in the statistical literature, where the typical recommendation is to use random- rather than fixed-effect techniques. We illustrate this problem by applying random-effect meta-analysis to estimates of the W-Boson mass. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T15:13:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-53d1997809134d2c841adb0afb767739 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1434-6052 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T15:13:37Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | European Physical Journal C: Particles and Fields |
| spelling | doaj.art-53d1997809134d2c841adb0afb7677392023-10-29T12:34:11ZengSpringerOpenEuropean Physical Journal C: Particles and Fields1434-60522023-09-0183911310.1140/epjc/s10052-023-11973-2Underestimating the uncertainty of aggregated results: the case of W-Boson massFintan Costello0Paul Watts1School of Computer Science, University College DublinDepartment of Theoretical Physics, National University of Ireland MaynoothAbstract Estimates of uncertainty or variance in experimental means are central to physics. This is especially the case for ‘world averages’ of fundamental parameters in particle physics, which aggregate results from a number of experiments to express current knowledge about these parameters and where variances in these world averages reflect uncertainty in that knowledge. The standard aggregation method used in Particle Data Group reports to estimate such parameters is a form of fixed-effect meta-analysis. One problem with the fixed-effect approach is that it assumes no random variation between experiments (that is, no variation in experimental accuracy, which becomes increasingly important as experimental precision rises). This problem is well-known in the statistical literature, where the typical recommendation is to use random- rather than fixed-effect techniques. We illustrate this problem by applying random-effect meta-analysis to estimates of the W-Boson mass.https://doi.org/10.1140/epjc/s10052-023-11973-2 |
| spellingShingle | Fintan Costello Paul Watts Underestimating the uncertainty of aggregated results: the case of W-Boson mass European Physical Journal C: Particles and Fields |
| title | Underestimating the uncertainty of aggregated results: the case of W-Boson mass |
| title_full | Underestimating the uncertainty of aggregated results: the case of W-Boson mass |
| title_fullStr | Underestimating the uncertainty of aggregated results: the case of W-Boson mass |
| title_full_unstemmed | Underestimating the uncertainty of aggregated results: the case of W-Boson mass |
| title_short | Underestimating the uncertainty of aggregated results: the case of W-Boson mass |
| title_sort | underestimating the uncertainty of aggregated results the case of w boson mass |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1140/epjc/s10052-023-11973-2 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fintancostello underestimatingtheuncertaintyofaggregatedresultsthecaseofwbosonmass AT paulwatts underestimatingtheuncertaintyofaggregatedresultsthecaseofwbosonmass |