Global drought risk in cities: present and future urban hotspots
Hydrological droughts pose a persistent threat for cities and are increasingly studied. However, this is rarely within a large-scale context, complicating comparisons between cities and potentially hampering the most efficient allocation of resources in terms of drought risk adaptation and mitigatio...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Communications |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad0210 |
| _version_ | 1797627943085670400 |
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| author | Tristian R Stolte Hans de Moel Elco E Koks Marthe L K Wens Felix van Veldhoven Snigdha Garg Neuni Farhad Philip J Ward |
| author_facet | Tristian R Stolte Hans de Moel Elco E Koks Marthe L K Wens Felix van Veldhoven Snigdha Garg Neuni Farhad Philip J Ward |
| author_sort | Tristian R Stolte |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Hydrological droughts pose a persistent threat for cities and are increasingly studied. However, this is rarely within a large-scale context, complicating comparisons between cities and potentially hampering the most efficient allocation of resources in terms of drought risk adaptation and mitigation. Here, we investigate global urban hydrological drought risk for 264 urban agglomerations across all continents for both the present time and future projections. To derive risk profiles for each agglomeration, we include components of: drought hazard (drought volume focusing on surface water deficits), exposure (urban population), vulnerability (multivariate vulnerability index), and cost (replacement of freshwater expenses). These components are dynamic in time, except for vulnerability. Most agglomerations are projected to experience an increase in drought hazard, exposure, and cost by 2050, with the most notable current and future hotspot being northern South Asia (India & Pakistan). Also, the number of agglomerations with high risk increases, whereas the number with lower risk decreases, indicating that high urban drought risk is increasing in scale over time. Our results enable a better targeting of those agglomerations that need most urgent attention in terms of drought risk solutions. It can also be used to identify agglomerations with similar drought risk profiles that could be studied in conjunction and may benefit from cooperative drought risk management strategies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T10:31:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-53ed720e98c0426980bedd970dcfab42 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2515-7620 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T10:31:37Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-53ed720e98c0426980bedd970dcfab422023-11-14T15:04:53ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Communications2515-76202023-01-0151111500810.1088/2515-7620/ad0210Global drought risk in cities: present and future urban hotspotsTristian R Stolte0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8776-9896Hans de Moel1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6826-1974Elco E Koks2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4953-4527Marthe L K Wens3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0133-5924Felix van Veldhoven4https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9671-6537Snigdha Garg5Neuni Farhad6Philip J Ward7https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7702-7859Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam , Amsterdam, the NetherlandsInstitute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam , Amsterdam, the NetherlandsInstitute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam , Amsterdam, the NetherlandsInstitute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam , Amsterdam, the NetherlandsClimate Adaptation Services , Bussum, the NetherlandsC40 Cities , NY, United States of AmericaC40 Cities , NY, United States of AmericaInstitute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam , Amsterdam, the NetherlandsHydrological droughts pose a persistent threat for cities and are increasingly studied. However, this is rarely within a large-scale context, complicating comparisons between cities and potentially hampering the most efficient allocation of resources in terms of drought risk adaptation and mitigation. Here, we investigate global urban hydrological drought risk for 264 urban agglomerations across all continents for both the present time and future projections. To derive risk profiles for each agglomeration, we include components of: drought hazard (drought volume focusing on surface water deficits), exposure (urban population), vulnerability (multivariate vulnerability index), and cost (replacement of freshwater expenses). These components are dynamic in time, except for vulnerability. Most agglomerations are projected to experience an increase in drought hazard, exposure, and cost by 2050, with the most notable current and future hotspot being northern South Asia (India & Pakistan). Also, the number of agglomerations with high risk increases, whereas the number with lower risk decreases, indicating that high urban drought risk is increasing in scale over time. Our results enable a better targeting of those agglomerations that need most urgent attention in terms of drought risk solutions. It can also be used to identify agglomerations with similar drought risk profiles that could be studied in conjunction and may benefit from cooperative drought risk management strategies.https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad0210urban drought riskhydrological droughtglobal disaster riskurban agglomerationsdisaster risk managementdrought hotspots |
| spellingShingle | Tristian R Stolte Hans de Moel Elco E Koks Marthe L K Wens Felix van Veldhoven Snigdha Garg Neuni Farhad Philip J Ward Global drought risk in cities: present and future urban hotspots Environmental Research Communications urban drought risk hydrological drought global disaster risk urban agglomerations disaster risk management drought hotspots |
| title | Global drought risk in cities: present and future urban hotspots |
| title_full | Global drought risk in cities: present and future urban hotspots |
| title_fullStr | Global drought risk in cities: present and future urban hotspots |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global drought risk in cities: present and future urban hotspots |
| title_short | Global drought risk in cities: present and future urban hotspots |
| title_sort | global drought risk in cities present and future urban hotspots |
| topic | urban drought risk hydrological drought global disaster risk urban agglomerations disaster risk management drought hotspots |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad0210 |
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