Why Is <i>Aedes aegypti</i> Moving South in South America?
Colonies of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> have been reported at increasingly southern locations. Is this feature a manifestation of climate change or the result of the mosquito’s adaptation? Answering the question requires the testing and comparison of results produced under different, competing,...
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MDPI AG
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Mathematics |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/23/4510 |
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| author | Lucas Ernesto Alonso Victoria Romeo Aznar Hernán Gustavo Solari |
| author_facet | Lucas Ernesto Alonso Victoria Romeo Aznar Hernán Gustavo Solari |
| author_sort | Lucas Ernesto Alonso |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Colonies of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> have been reported at increasingly southern locations. Is this feature a manifestation of climate change or the result of the mosquito’s adaptation? Answering the question requires the testing and comparison of results produced under different, competing, hypotheses. We address the problem using “AedesBA”, a detailed model of the mosquito <i>Aedes aegypti</i> that has been under development for about 20 years. The aim of the model is to promote understanding. We incorporate the recently discovered biological behavior of this mosquito: diapause. Namely, this is the laying of resistance eggs when the day light shortens, entering into the unfavorable season for reproduction in temperate climates, as described from laboratory experiments. When the model is challenged to answer the questions posed, it suggests that climate change, as experienced during the time of the field records, does not explain the observations. Furthermore, the standard climate change argument does not support a detailed analysis. In contrast, we find that while diapause is not expected to be a trait that is selected by natural conditions in a subtropical climate (simulations for Resistencia, AR), within temperate climates such as in Buenos Aires city (AR), there is pressure favoring the selection of the trait. As we move southward (the cities of Dolores, Azul, Tandil, and Mar del Plata), the pressure increases, while the probability of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> to become established in them decreases, being in accordance with the field observations. The model shows in addition that the field-observable effects of diapause depend on weather variables, especially precipitation, and the dynamics of the nutritional resources in the breeding sites. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T17:40:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-540a65a344f0469ead8246ba8d2c60c6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2227-7390 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T17:40:38Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematics |
| spelling | doaj.art-540a65a344f0469ead8246ba8d2c60c62023-11-24T11:34:46ZengMDPI AGMathematics2227-73902022-11-011023451010.3390/math10234510Why Is <i>Aedes aegypti</i> Moving South in South America?Lucas Ernesto Alonso0Victoria Romeo Aznar1Hernán Gustavo Solari2Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía No Convencional (INENCO), UNSa-CONICET, Salta 4400, ArgentinaInstituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires (IEGEBA), UBA-CONICET and Departamento de Ecología, Genética y Evolución, FCEN-UBA, Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires 1428, ArgentinaInistituto de Física de Buenos Aires (IFIBA), UBA-CONICET and Departmento de Física, FCEN-UBA, Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires 1428, ArgentinaColonies of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> have been reported at increasingly southern locations. Is this feature a manifestation of climate change or the result of the mosquito’s adaptation? Answering the question requires the testing and comparison of results produced under different, competing, hypotheses. We address the problem using “AedesBA”, a detailed model of the mosquito <i>Aedes aegypti</i> that has been under development for about 20 years. The aim of the model is to promote understanding. We incorporate the recently discovered biological behavior of this mosquito: diapause. Namely, this is the laying of resistance eggs when the day light shortens, entering into the unfavorable season for reproduction in temperate climates, as described from laboratory experiments. When the model is challenged to answer the questions posed, it suggests that climate change, as experienced during the time of the field records, does not explain the observations. Furthermore, the standard climate change argument does not support a detailed analysis. In contrast, we find that while diapause is not expected to be a trait that is selected by natural conditions in a subtropical climate (simulations for Resistencia, AR), within temperate climates such as in Buenos Aires city (AR), there is pressure favoring the selection of the trait. As we move southward (the cities of Dolores, Azul, Tandil, and Mar del Plata), the pressure increases, while the probability of <i>Aedes aegypti</i> to become established in them decreases, being in accordance with the field observations. The model shows in addition that the field-observable effects of diapause depend on weather variables, especially precipitation, and the dynamics of the nutritional resources in the breeding sites.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/23/4510stochastic modelecologyvectorcomplexity |
| spellingShingle | Lucas Ernesto Alonso Victoria Romeo Aznar Hernán Gustavo Solari Why Is <i>Aedes aegypti</i> Moving South in South America? Mathematics stochastic model ecology vector complexity |
| title | Why Is <i>Aedes aegypti</i> Moving South in South America? |
| title_full | Why Is <i>Aedes aegypti</i> Moving South in South America? |
| title_fullStr | Why Is <i>Aedes aegypti</i> Moving South in South America? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Why Is <i>Aedes aegypti</i> Moving South in South America? |
| title_short | Why Is <i>Aedes aegypti</i> Moving South in South America? |
| title_sort | why is i aedes aegypti i moving south in south america |
| topic | stochastic model ecology vector complexity |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/23/4510 |
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