Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment
Infectious diseases are changing due to the environment and altered interactions among hosts, reservoirs, vectors, and pathogens. This is particularly true for zoonotic diseases that infect humans, agricultural animals, and wildlife. Within the subset of zoonoses, vector-borne pathogens are changing...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2019-05-01
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| Series: | Veterinary Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-7381/6/2/40 |
| _version_ | 1818640104834465792 |
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| author | Andrew W. Bartlow Carrie Manore Chonggang Xu Kimberly A. Kaufeld Sara Del Valle Amanda Ziemann Geoffrey Fairchild Jeanne M. Fair |
| author_facet | Andrew W. Bartlow Carrie Manore Chonggang Xu Kimberly A. Kaufeld Sara Del Valle Amanda Ziemann Geoffrey Fairchild Jeanne M. Fair |
| author_sort | Andrew W. Bartlow |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Infectious diseases are changing due to the environment and altered interactions among hosts, reservoirs, vectors, and pathogens. This is particularly true for zoonotic diseases that infect humans, agricultural animals, and wildlife. Within the subset of zoonoses, vector-borne pathogens are changing more rapidly with climate change, and have a complex epidemiology, which may allow them to take advantage of a changing environment. Most mosquito-borne infectious diseases are transmitted by mosquitoes in three genera: <i>Aedes</i>, <i>Anopheles</i>, and <i>Culex</i>, and the expansion of these genera is well documented. There is an urgent need to study vector-borne diseases in response to climate change and to produce a generalizable approach capable of generating risk maps and forecasting outbreaks. Here, we provide a strategy for coupling climate and epidemiological models for zoonotic infectious diseases. We discuss the complexity and challenges of data and model fusion, baseline requirements for data, and animal and human population movement. Disease forecasting needs significant investment to build the infrastructure necessary to collect data about the environment, vectors, and hosts at all spatial and temporal resolutions. These investments can contribute to building a modeling community around the globe to support public health officials so as to reduce disease burden through forecasts with quantified uncertainty. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-16T23:05:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-54196256ae624783b18115863e311e2f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2306-7381 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-16T23:05:58Z |
| publishDate | 2019-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Veterinary Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-54196256ae624783b18115863e311e2f2022-12-21T22:12:33ZengMDPI AGVeterinary Sciences2306-73812019-05-01624010.3390/vetsci6020040vetsci6020040Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing EnvironmentAndrew W. Bartlow0Carrie Manore1Chonggang Xu2Kimberly A. Kaufeld3Sara Del Valle4Amanda Ziemann5Geoffrey Fairchild6Jeanne M. Fair7Los Alamos National Laboratory, Biosecurity and Public Health, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USALos Alamos National Laboratory, Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USALos Alamos National Laboratory, Earth Systems Observations, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USALos Alamos National Laboratory, Statistical Sciences, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USALos Alamos National Laboratory, Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USALos Alamos National Laboratory, Space Data Science and Systems, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USALos Alamos National Laboratory, Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USALos Alamos National Laboratory, Biosecurity and Public Health, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USAInfectious diseases are changing due to the environment and altered interactions among hosts, reservoirs, vectors, and pathogens. This is particularly true for zoonotic diseases that infect humans, agricultural animals, and wildlife. Within the subset of zoonoses, vector-borne pathogens are changing more rapidly with climate change, and have a complex epidemiology, which may allow them to take advantage of a changing environment. Most mosquito-borne infectious diseases are transmitted by mosquitoes in three genera: <i>Aedes</i>, <i>Anopheles</i>, and <i>Culex</i>, and the expansion of these genera is well documented. There is an urgent need to study vector-borne diseases in response to climate change and to produce a generalizable approach capable of generating risk maps and forecasting outbreaks. Here, we provide a strategy for coupling climate and epidemiological models for zoonotic infectious diseases. We discuss the complexity and challenges of data and model fusion, baseline requirements for data, and animal and human population movement. Disease forecasting needs significant investment to build the infrastructure necessary to collect data about the environment, vectors, and hosts at all spatial and temporal resolutions. These investments can contribute to building a modeling community around the globe to support public health officials so as to reduce disease burden through forecasts with quantified uncertainty.https://www.mdpi.com/2306-7381/6/2/40infectious diseasezoonoticmosquitovector-borneclimate changerange expansionepidemiology |
| spellingShingle | Andrew W. Bartlow Carrie Manore Chonggang Xu Kimberly A. Kaufeld Sara Del Valle Amanda Ziemann Geoffrey Fairchild Jeanne M. Fair Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment Veterinary Sciences infectious disease zoonotic mosquito vector-borne climate change range expansion epidemiology |
| title | Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment |
| title_full | Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment |
| title_short | Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment |
| title_sort | forecasting zoonotic infectious disease response to climate change mosquito vectors and a changing environment |
| topic | infectious disease zoonotic mosquito vector-borne climate change range expansion epidemiology |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-7381/6/2/40 |
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