An update on the influence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclones
A substantial number of studies have been published since the Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) in 2018, improving our understanding of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) and associated hazards and risks. These studies have reinforced the robustness of i...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603223000437 |
| _version_ | 1827631702814490624 |
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| author | Suzana J. Camargo Hiroyuki Murakami Nadia Bloemendaal Savin S. Chand Medha S. Deshpande Christian Dominguez-Sarmiento Juan Jesús González-Alemán Thomas R. Knutson I.-I. Lin Il-Ju Moon Christina M. Patricola Kevin A. Reed Malcolm J. Roberts Enrico Scoccimarro Chi Yung (Francis) Tam Elizabeth J. Wallace Liguang Wu Yohei Yamada Wei Zhang Haikun Zhao |
| author_facet | Suzana J. Camargo Hiroyuki Murakami Nadia Bloemendaal Savin S. Chand Medha S. Deshpande Christian Dominguez-Sarmiento Juan Jesús González-Alemán Thomas R. Knutson I.-I. Lin Il-Ju Moon Christina M. Patricola Kevin A. Reed Malcolm J. Roberts Enrico Scoccimarro Chi Yung (Francis) Tam Elizabeth J. Wallace Liguang Wu Yohei Yamada Wei Zhang Haikun Zhao |
| author_sort | Suzana J. Camargo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A substantial number of studies have been published since the Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) in 2018, improving our understanding of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) and associated hazards and risks. These studies have reinforced the robustness of increases in TC intensity and associated TC hazards and risks due to anthropogenic climate change. New modeling and observational studies suggested the potential influence of anthropogenic climate forcings, including greenhouse gases and aerosols, on global and regional TC activity at the decadal and century time scales. However, there are still substantial uncertainties owing to model uncertainty in simulating historical TC decadal variability in the Atlantic, and the limitations of observed TC records. The projected future change in the global number of TCs has become more uncertain since IWTC-9 due to projected increases in TC frequency by a few climate models. A new paradigm, TC seeds, has been proposed, and there is currently a debate on whether seeds can help explain the physical mechanism behind the projected changes in global TC frequency. New studies also highlighted the importance of large-scale environmental fields on TC activity, such as snow cover and air-sea interactions. Future projections on TC translation speed and medicanes are new additional focus topics in our report. Recommendations and future research are proposed relevant to the remaining scientific questions and assisting policymakers. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:25:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-541af5e218f44952a571f1fff43660e9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2225-6032 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:25:44Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
| spelling | doaj.art-541af5e218f44952a571f1fff43660e92023-11-28T07:25:59ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2225-60322023-09-01123216239An update on the influence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclonesSuzana J. Camargo0Hiroyuki Murakami1Nadia Bloemendaal2Savin S. Chand3Medha S. Deshpande4Christian Dominguez-Sarmiento5Juan Jesús González-Alemán6Thomas R. Knutson7I.-I. Lin8Il-Ju Moon9Christina M. Patricola10Kevin A. Reed11Malcolm J. Roberts12Enrico Scoccimarro13Chi Yung (Francis) Tam14Elizabeth J. Wallace15Liguang Wu16Yohei Yamada17Wei Zhang18Haikun Zhao19Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA; Corresponding author.National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA; Corresponding author.Vrije University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, NetherlandsFederation University Australia, Ballarat, Victoria, AustraliaIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune, IndiaInstituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Mexico City, MexicoSpanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMet), Madrid, SpainNational Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USANational Taiwan University, Taiwan, ChinaJeju National University, Jeju, Republic of KoreaIowa State University, Ames, IA, USAStony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USAMet Office, Exeter, United KingdomFondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, ItalyThe Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, ChinaOld Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, USAFudan University, Shanghai, ChinaJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, JapanUtah State University, Logan, UT, USANanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaA substantial number of studies have been published since the Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) in 2018, improving our understanding of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) and associated hazards and risks. These studies have reinforced the robustness of increases in TC intensity and associated TC hazards and risks due to anthropogenic climate change. New modeling and observational studies suggested the potential influence of anthropogenic climate forcings, including greenhouse gases and aerosols, on global and regional TC activity at the decadal and century time scales. However, there are still substantial uncertainties owing to model uncertainty in simulating historical TC decadal variability in the Atlantic, and the limitations of observed TC records. The projected future change in the global number of TCs has become more uncertain since IWTC-9 due to projected increases in TC frequency by a few climate models. A new paradigm, TC seeds, has been proposed, and there is currently a debate on whether seeds can help explain the physical mechanism behind the projected changes in global TC frequency. New studies also highlighted the importance of large-scale environmental fields on TC activity, such as snow cover and air-sea interactions. Future projections on TC translation speed and medicanes are new additional focus topics in our report. Recommendations and future research are proposed relevant to the remaining scientific questions and assisting policymakers.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603223000437 |
| spellingShingle | Suzana J. Camargo Hiroyuki Murakami Nadia Bloemendaal Savin S. Chand Medha S. Deshpande Christian Dominguez-Sarmiento Juan Jesús González-Alemán Thomas R. Knutson I.-I. Lin Il-Ju Moon Christina M. Patricola Kevin A. Reed Malcolm J. Roberts Enrico Scoccimarro Chi Yung (Francis) Tam Elizabeth J. Wallace Liguang Wu Yohei Yamada Wei Zhang Haikun Zhao An update on the influence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclones Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
| title | An update on the influence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclones |
| title_full | An update on the influence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclones |
| title_fullStr | An update on the influence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclones |
| title_full_unstemmed | An update on the influence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclones |
| title_short | An update on the influence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclones |
| title_sort | update on the influence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclones |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603223000437 |
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