Inter-Country COVID-19 Contagiousness Variation in Eight African Countries
The estimates of contiguousness parameters of an epidemic have been used for health-related policy and control measures such as non-pharmaceutical control interventions (NPIs). The estimates have varied by demographics, epidemic phase, and geographical region. Our aim was to estimate four contagious...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-06-01
|
| Series: | Frontiers in Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.796501/full |
| _version_ | 1818235738166132736 |
|---|---|
| author | Geoffrey Chiyuzga Singini Samuel O. M. Manda Samuel O. M. Manda Samuel O. M. Manda |
| author_facet | Geoffrey Chiyuzga Singini Samuel O. M. Manda Samuel O. M. Manda Samuel O. M. Manda |
| author_sort | Geoffrey Chiyuzga Singini |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The estimates of contiguousness parameters of an epidemic have been used for health-related policy and control measures such as non-pharmaceutical control interventions (NPIs). The estimates have varied by demographics, epidemic phase, and geographical region. Our aim was to estimate four contagiousness parameters: basic reproduction number (R0), contact rate, removal rate, and infectious period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among eight African countries, namely Angola, Botswana, Egypt, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, South Africa, and Tunisia using Susceptible, Infectious, or Recovered (SIR) epidemic models for the period 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2021. For reference, we also estimated these parameters for three of COVID-19's most severely affected countries: Brazil, India, and the USA. The basic reproduction number, contact and remove rates, and infectious period ranged from 1.11 to 1.59, 0.53 to 1.0, 0.39 to 0.81; and 1.23 to 2.59 for the eight African countries. For the USA, Brazil, and India these were 1.94, 0.66, 0.34, and 2.94; 1.62, 0.62, 0.38, and 2.62, and 1.55, 0.61, 0.39, and 2.55, respectively. The average COVID-19 related case fatality rate for 8 African countries in this study was estimated to be 2.86%. Contact and removal rates among an affected African population were positively and significantly associated with COVID-19 related deaths (p-value < 0.003). The larger than one estimates of the basic reproductive number in the studies of African countries indicate that COVID-19 was still being transmitted exponentially by the 31 December 2021, though at different rates. The spread was even higher for the three countries with substantial COVID-19 outbreaks. The lower removal rates in the USA, Brazil, and India could be indicative of lower death rates (a proxy for good health systems). Our findings of variation in the estimate of COVID-19 contagiousness parameters imply that countries in the region may implement differential COVID-19 containment measures. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T11:58:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-543585ed9b404ef2ab468563d6f73907 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-2565 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T11:58:44Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-543585ed9b404ef2ab468563d6f739072022-12-22T00:25:08ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652022-06-011010.3389/fpubh.2022.796501796501Inter-Country COVID-19 Contagiousness Variation in Eight African CountriesGeoffrey Chiyuzga Singini0Samuel O. M. Manda1Samuel O. M. Manda2Samuel O. M. Manda3Chancellor College, University of Malawi, Zomba, MalawiChancellor College, University of Malawi, Zomba, MalawiBiostatistics Research Unit, South Africa Medical Research Council, Pretoria, South AfricaDepartment of Statistics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South AfricaThe estimates of contiguousness parameters of an epidemic have been used for health-related policy and control measures such as non-pharmaceutical control interventions (NPIs). The estimates have varied by demographics, epidemic phase, and geographical region. Our aim was to estimate four contagiousness parameters: basic reproduction number (R0), contact rate, removal rate, and infectious period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among eight African countries, namely Angola, Botswana, Egypt, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, South Africa, and Tunisia using Susceptible, Infectious, or Recovered (SIR) epidemic models for the period 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2021. For reference, we also estimated these parameters for three of COVID-19's most severely affected countries: Brazil, India, and the USA. The basic reproduction number, contact and remove rates, and infectious period ranged from 1.11 to 1.59, 0.53 to 1.0, 0.39 to 0.81; and 1.23 to 2.59 for the eight African countries. For the USA, Brazil, and India these were 1.94, 0.66, 0.34, and 2.94; 1.62, 0.62, 0.38, and 2.62, and 1.55, 0.61, 0.39, and 2.55, respectively. The average COVID-19 related case fatality rate for 8 African countries in this study was estimated to be 2.86%. Contact and removal rates among an affected African population were positively and significantly associated with COVID-19 related deaths (p-value < 0.003). The larger than one estimates of the basic reproductive number in the studies of African countries indicate that COVID-19 was still being transmitted exponentially by the 31 December 2021, though at different rates. The spread was even higher for the three countries with substantial COVID-19 outbreaks. The lower removal rates in the USA, Brazil, and India could be indicative of lower death rates (a proxy for good health systems). Our findings of variation in the estimate of COVID-19 contagiousness parameters imply that countries in the region may implement differential COVID-19 containment measures.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.796501/fullCOVID-19reproduction numbercontact rateremoval rateinfectious periodAfrica |
| spellingShingle | Geoffrey Chiyuzga Singini Samuel O. M. Manda Samuel O. M. Manda Samuel O. M. Manda Inter-Country COVID-19 Contagiousness Variation in Eight African Countries Frontiers in Public Health COVID-19 reproduction number contact rate removal rate infectious period Africa |
| title | Inter-Country COVID-19 Contagiousness Variation in Eight African Countries |
| title_full | Inter-Country COVID-19 Contagiousness Variation in Eight African Countries |
| title_fullStr | Inter-Country COVID-19 Contagiousness Variation in Eight African Countries |
| title_full_unstemmed | Inter-Country COVID-19 Contagiousness Variation in Eight African Countries |
| title_short | Inter-Country COVID-19 Contagiousness Variation in Eight African Countries |
| title_sort | inter country covid 19 contagiousness variation in eight african countries |
| topic | COVID-19 reproduction number contact rate removal rate infectious period Africa |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.796501/full |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT geoffreychiyuzgasingini intercountrycovid19contagiousnessvariationineightafricancountries AT samuelommanda intercountrycovid19contagiousnessvariationineightafricancountries AT samuelommanda intercountrycovid19contagiousnessvariationineightafricancountries AT samuelommanda intercountrycovid19contagiousnessvariationineightafricancountries |