Precipitation forecasting through an analog sorting technique: a comparative study
This study aims at comparing two quantitative precipitation forecasting techniques based on the meteorological analogy concept. Method A considers first a selection of analogous situations at synoptic scale. Second a subset of the most similar situations in terms of hygrometry is extracted. Method B...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2011-04-01
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| Series: | Advances in Geosciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.adv-geosci.net/29/103/2011/adgeo-29-103-2011.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818522654938759168 |
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| author | A. Ben Daoud E. Sauquet M. Lang G. Bontron C. Obled |
| author_facet | A. Ben Daoud E. Sauquet M. Lang G. Bontron C. Obled |
| author_sort | A. Ben Daoud |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study aims at comparing two quantitative precipitation forecasting
techniques based on the meteorological analogy concept. Method A considers
first a selection of analogous situations at synoptic scale. Second a subset
of the most similar situations in terms of hygrometry is extracted. Method B
extends method A by two innovative ways, which are restricting the search
for analogues with temperature information instead of the common season
criterion, and exploiting the information about vertical motion considering
vertical velocity. Forecasts are evaluated in a perfect prognosis context
and in operational conditions as well, by mean of verification measures
(Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score and scores computed from
contingency tables). Results of the case study in France show that: (1)
there is an increase in forecast skill when temperature and vertical
velocity are included in the procedure, (2) it is possible to anticipate
rainfall events up to one week ahead and (3) the introduction of new
variables such as vertical velocity may be useless beyond few days ahead
if the forecast of the weather model is not reliable. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T05:36:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-545f78a2ac164976a95b96483bec1a1a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7340 1680-7359 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T05:36:08Z |
| publishDate | 2011-04-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Geosciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-545f78a2ac164976a95b96483bec1a1a2022-12-22T01:19:17ZengCopernicus PublicationsAdvances in Geosciences1680-73401680-73592011-04-012910310710.5194/adgeo-29-103-2011Precipitation forecasting through an analog sorting technique: a comparative studyA. Ben Daoud0E. Sauquet1M. Lang2G. Bontron3C. Obled4Cemagref, UR HHLY, Lyon, FranceCemagref, UR HHLY, Lyon, FranceCemagref, UR HHLY, Lyon, FranceCompagnie Nationale du Rhône, Direction de l'Energie – Gestion de l'Energie, Lyon, FranceLaboratoire d'Etude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble, Grenoble, FranceThis study aims at comparing two quantitative precipitation forecasting techniques based on the meteorological analogy concept. Method A considers first a selection of analogous situations at synoptic scale. Second a subset of the most similar situations in terms of hygrometry is extracted. Method B extends method A by two innovative ways, which are restricting the search for analogues with temperature information instead of the common season criterion, and exploiting the information about vertical motion considering vertical velocity. Forecasts are evaluated in a perfect prognosis context and in operational conditions as well, by mean of verification measures (Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score and scores computed from contingency tables). Results of the case study in France show that: (1) there is an increase in forecast skill when temperature and vertical velocity are included in the procedure, (2) it is possible to anticipate rainfall events up to one week ahead and (3) the introduction of new variables such as vertical velocity may be useless beyond few days ahead if the forecast of the weather model is not reliable.http://www.adv-geosci.net/29/103/2011/adgeo-29-103-2011.pdf |
| spellingShingle | A. Ben Daoud E. Sauquet M. Lang G. Bontron C. Obled Precipitation forecasting through an analog sorting technique: a comparative study Advances in Geosciences |
| title | Precipitation forecasting through an analog sorting technique: a comparative study |
| title_full | Precipitation forecasting through an analog sorting technique: a comparative study |
| title_fullStr | Precipitation forecasting through an analog sorting technique: a comparative study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Precipitation forecasting through an analog sorting technique: a comparative study |
| title_short | Precipitation forecasting through an analog sorting technique: a comparative study |
| title_sort | precipitation forecasting through an analog sorting technique a comparative study |
| url | http://www.adv-geosci.net/29/103/2011/adgeo-29-103-2011.pdf |
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