Bre index for the Hong Kong residential property market
This paper examines housing price trends and prediction, of homeowners and potential home buyers, and establishes an independent index (the BRE Index) based on longitudinal telephone surveys collected. The Index, first of this kind in Hong Kong, measures price expectations and benchmarks the level o...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Vilnius Gediminas Technical University
2004-06-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Strategic Property Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.bme.vgtu.lt/index.php/IJSPM/article/view/7291 |
| _version_ | 1811191513465487360 |
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| author | Eddie Chi Man Hui Joe Tak Yun Wong |
| author_facet | Eddie Chi Man Hui Joe Tak Yun Wong |
| author_sort | Eddie Chi Man Hui |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper examines housing price trends and prediction, of homeowners and potential home buyers, and establishes an independent index (the BRE Index) based on longitudinal telephone surveys collected. The Index, first of this kind in Hong Kong, measures price expectations and benchmarks the level of housing actors’ confidence in the residential market. This is the first paper delivered as part of a government‐funded research project. It synthesizes the key findings of the first survey mounted from 17th to 20th December, 2003. The results show that confidence among housing actors has begun to grow since the property crash in late 1997 with the “overall” BRE Index standing at 564 (0–1000 range). In general, homeowners, people with higher educational level and higher income are optimistic about the market outlook. Residential property prices are expected to rise marginally in the short term. Statistically, there is no significant difference in housing price expectations between homeowners and non‐owners. In their minds, economic condition is the most important factor affecting housing decisions. Apparently, the rising trends in the immediate past have been used to form expectations. The strength of the association between actual capital gains and forecast capital gains is moderately strong, and there appears co‐movement between them. This leads us to believe that hope‐led expectations increase the likelihood of sustaining price increases. The current market is largely driven by expectations. If households formed their expectations in a similar manner in other periods, there would be similar “positive hit” results, which might render the Index more powerful.
First Published Online: 18 Oct 2010 |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T15:07:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-547a1a2778eb4b8d81f9789ccb09b0f4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1648-715X 1648-9179 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T15:07:07Z |
| publishDate | 2004-06-01 |
| publisher | Vilnius Gediminas Technical University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Strategic Property Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-547a1a2778eb4b8d81f9789ccb09b0f42022-12-22T04:16:46ZengVilnius Gediminas Technical UniversityInternational Journal of Strategic Property Management1648-715X1648-91792004-06-018210.3846/1648715X.2004.9637511Bre index for the Hong Kong residential property marketEddie Chi Man Hui0Joe Tak Yun Wong1The Department of Building and Real Estate , The Hong Kong Polytechnic University , Hung Horn, Kowloon, Hong KongThe Department of Building and Real Estate , The Hong Kong Polytechnic University , Hung Horn, Kowloon, Hong KongThis paper examines housing price trends and prediction, of homeowners and potential home buyers, and establishes an independent index (the BRE Index) based on longitudinal telephone surveys collected. The Index, first of this kind in Hong Kong, measures price expectations and benchmarks the level of housing actors’ confidence in the residential market. This is the first paper delivered as part of a government‐funded research project. It synthesizes the key findings of the first survey mounted from 17th to 20th December, 2003. The results show that confidence among housing actors has begun to grow since the property crash in late 1997 with the “overall” BRE Index standing at 564 (0–1000 range). In general, homeowners, people with higher educational level and higher income are optimistic about the market outlook. Residential property prices are expected to rise marginally in the short term. Statistically, there is no significant difference in housing price expectations between homeowners and non‐owners. In their minds, economic condition is the most important factor affecting housing decisions. Apparently, the rising trends in the immediate past have been used to form expectations. The strength of the association between actual capital gains and forecast capital gains is moderately strong, and there appears co‐movement between them. This leads us to believe that hope‐led expectations increase the likelihood of sustaining price increases. The current market is largely driven by expectations. If households formed their expectations in a similar manner in other periods, there would be similar “positive hit” results, which might render the Index more powerful. First Published Online: 18 Oct 2010https://www.bme.vgtu.lt/index.php/IJSPM/article/view/7291Property Price trendsBRE indexMarket confidenceHong Kong |
| spellingShingle | Eddie Chi Man Hui Joe Tak Yun Wong Bre index for the Hong Kong residential property market International Journal of Strategic Property Management Property Price trends BRE index Market confidence Hong Kong |
| title | Bre index for the Hong Kong residential property market |
| title_full | Bre index for the Hong Kong residential property market |
| title_fullStr | Bre index for the Hong Kong residential property market |
| title_full_unstemmed | Bre index for the Hong Kong residential property market |
| title_short | Bre index for the Hong Kong residential property market |
| title_sort | bre index for the hong kong residential property market |
| topic | Property Price trends BRE index Market confidence Hong Kong |
| url | https://www.bme.vgtu.lt/index.php/IJSPM/article/view/7291 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT eddiechimanhui breindexforthehongkongresidentialpropertymarket AT joetakyunwong breindexforthehongkongresidentialpropertymarket |