Assessing different interventions against Avian Influenza A (H7N9) infection by an epidemiological model
This paper aims at evaluating the effectiveness of different intervention measures against the infection of avian influenza A (H7N9) by using an epidemiological model. The model formulates the intrinsic interactions of domestic poultry (DP), H7N9 virus and humans by ordinary differential equations a...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2021-12-01
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| Series: | One Health |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771421001026 |
| _version_ | 1819174244003610624 |
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| author | Xueli Wei Liying Wang Qiaojuan Jia Jianpeng Xiao Guanghu Zhu |
| author_facet | Xueli Wei Liying Wang Qiaojuan Jia Jianpeng Xiao Guanghu Zhu |
| author_sort | Xueli Wei |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper aims at evaluating the effectiveness of different intervention measures against the infection of avian influenza A (H7N9) by using an epidemiological model. The model formulates the intrinsic interactions of domestic poultry (DP), H7N9 virus and humans by ordinary differential equations and couples the essential roles of various interventions (including culling, vaccinating, screening, disinfecting, and reducing contact rate, etc). Qualitative analysis indicates that when the recruiting poultry is virus-free, there is a transmission threshold denoted by basic reproduction number which can determine the invasion of H7N9; and there is always a stable H7N9 endemic in case of persistent import of virus-carrying poultry, under which only complete vaccination or cutting off poultry-to-poultry/human contacts can stop H7N9 transmission. By performing numerical analysis of the model with biological background parameters, the intervention outcomes against H7N9 infection are further quantified. It is found that (1) reducing poultry-human/poultry interaction and per-contact infection probability, as well as culling DP, are highly effective in diminishing the infections of humans and DP; (2) the disease is prevented when larger than (1 − 0.1λp) proportion of DP is vaccinated, where λp is the DP-to-DP transmission rate; (3) cleaning and disinfecting environment play limited role in reducing the risk of infection; and (4) screening imported poultry is quite important for stopping disease diffusion, but it works little when local epidemic is prevailing. Combing these measures with real situations would be necessary for controlling H7N9 epidemics and reaching one health purpose. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T20:35:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-549d2f439d3d4dea8060ab3e813736f4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2352-7714 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T20:35:53Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | One Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-549d2f439d3d4dea8060ab3e813736f42022-12-21T18:13:28ZengElsevierOne Health2352-77142021-12-0113100312Assessing different interventions against Avian Influenza A (H7N9) infection by an epidemiological modelXueli Wei0Liying Wang1Qiaojuan Jia2Jianpeng Xiao3Guanghu Zhu4School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541004, ChinaSchool of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541004, ChinaSchool of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541004, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, ChinaSchool of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541004, China; Corresponding author.This paper aims at evaluating the effectiveness of different intervention measures against the infection of avian influenza A (H7N9) by using an epidemiological model. The model formulates the intrinsic interactions of domestic poultry (DP), H7N9 virus and humans by ordinary differential equations and couples the essential roles of various interventions (including culling, vaccinating, screening, disinfecting, and reducing contact rate, etc). Qualitative analysis indicates that when the recruiting poultry is virus-free, there is a transmission threshold denoted by basic reproduction number which can determine the invasion of H7N9; and there is always a stable H7N9 endemic in case of persistent import of virus-carrying poultry, under which only complete vaccination or cutting off poultry-to-poultry/human contacts can stop H7N9 transmission. By performing numerical analysis of the model with biological background parameters, the intervention outcomes against H7N9 infection are further quantified. It is found that (1) reducing poultry-human/poultry interaction and per-contact infection probability, as well as culling DP, are highly effective in diminishing the infections of humans and DP; (2) the disease is prevented when larger than (1 − 0.1λp) proportion of DP is vaccinated, where λp is the DP-to-DP transmission rate; (3) cleaning and disinfecting environment play limited role in reducing the risk of infection; and (4) screening imported poultry is quite important for stopping disease diffusion, but it works little when local epidemic is prevailing. Combing these measures with real situations would be necessary for controlling H7N9 epidemics and reaching one health purpose.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771421001026H7N9transmission dynamicsbasic reproduction numberintervention |
| spellingShingle | Xueli Wei Liying Wang Qiaojuan Jia Jianpeng Xiao Guanghu Zhu Assessing different interventions against Avian Influenza A (H7N9) infection by an epidemiological model One Health H7N9 transmission dynamics basic reproduction number intervention |
| title | Assessing different interventions against Avian Influenza A (H7N9) infection by an epidemiological model |
| title_full | Assessing different interventions against Avian Influenza A (H7N9) infection by an epidemiological model |
| title_fullStr | Assessing different interventions against Avian Influenza A (H7N9) infection by an epidemiological model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing different interventions against Avian Influenza A (H7N9) infection by an epidemiological model |
| title_short | Assessing different interventions against Avian Influenza A (H7N9) infection by an epidemiological model |
| title_sort | assessing different interventions against avian influenza a h7n9 infection by an epidemiological model |
| topic | H7N9 transmission dynamics basic reproduction number intervention |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771421001026 |
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