Attributing observed increase in extreme precipitation in China to human influence
This paper examines new evidence from observational and detection and attribution studies of changes in extreme precipitation in China since the early 1960s. We have also designed a series of sensitivity tests to explore the robustness of detection and attribution results to the differences in sampl...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac888e |
| _version_ | 1797747373508657152 |
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| author | Siyan Dong Ying Sun Xuebin Zhang |
| author_facet | Siyan Dong Ying Sun Xuebin Zhang |
| author_sort | Siyan Dong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper examines new evidence from observational and detection and attribution studies of changes in extreme precipitation in China since the early 1960s. We have also designed a series of sensitivity tests to explore the robustness of detection and attribution results to the differences in sample size, in extreme precipitation index, and in data processing procedure. Our analyses used the most recent update of observational records as well as simulations conducted with the climate models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Based on the existing studies and our additional analyses, we found that human influence is detectable in extreme precipitation in China regardless of the period, extreme precipitation index, or data treatment considered, in both China as a whole and in northern and southern China separately. We also found, as is often encountered in detection and attribution studies, it is difficult to separate the contribution from anthropogenic forcing from that of natural external forcing, and it is also challenging to decompose the anthropogenic component into a greenhouse gas forcing component and a component that reflects other anthropogenic forcing agents (dominantly, aerosols). |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:49:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-549feb84a8294d5dbdfadbabe554bad0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:49:48Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-549feb84a8294d5dbdfadbabe554bad02023-08-09T15:15:12ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-0117909500510.1088/1748-9326/ac888eAttributing observed increase in extreme precipitation in China to human influenceSiyan Dong0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5625-6097Ying Sun1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2335-3485Xuebin Zhang2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6551-6249National Climate Center, Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration , Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaNational Climate Center, Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration , Beijing, People’s Republic of China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology , Nanjing, People’s Republic of ChinaClimate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada , Toronto, Ontario, CanadaThis paper examines new evidence from observational and detection and attribution studies of changes in extreme precipitation in China since the early 1960s. We have also designed a series of sensitivity tests to explore the robustness of detection and attribution results to the differences in sample size, in extreme precipitation index, and in data processing procedure. Our analyses used the most recent update of observational records as well as simulations conducted with the climate models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Based on the existing studies and our additional analyses, we found that human influence is detectable in extreme precipitation in China regardless of the period, extreme precipitation index, or data treatment considered, in both China as a whole and in northern and southern China separately. We also found, as is often encountered in detection and attribution studies, it is difficult to separate the contribution from anthropogenic forcing from that of natural external forcing, and it is also challenging to decompose the anthropogenic component into a greenhouse gas forcing component and a component that reflects other anthropogenic forcing agents (dominantly, aerosols).https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac888eprecipitation extremesdetection and attributionanthropogenic forcinggreenhouse gas forcingCMIP6 |
| spellingShingle | Siyan Dong Ying Sun Xuebin Zhang Attributing observed increase in extreme precipitation in China to human influence Environmental Research Letters precipitation extremes detection and attribution anthropogenic forcing greenhouse gas forcing CMIP6 |
| title | Attributing observed increase in extreme precipitation in China to human influence |
| title_full | Attributing observed increase in extreme precipitation in China to human influence |
| title_fullStr | Attributing observed increase in extreme precipitation in China to human influence |
| title_full_unstemmed | Attributing observed increase in extreme precipitation in China to human influence |
| title_short | Attributing observed increase in extreme precipitation in China to human influence |
| title_sort | attributing observed increase in extreme precipitation in china to human influence |
| topic | precipitation extremes detection and attribution anthropogenic forcing greenhouse gas forcing CMIP6 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac888e |
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