Markov chain modeling of daily rainfall in Lay Gaint Woreda, South Gonder Zone, Ethiopia
Information on seasonal Kiremet and seasonal Belg rainfall amount is important in the rain fed agriculture of Ethiopia since more than 85% of the population is dependent on agriculture particularly on rain fed farming practices. The distribution pattern of rainfall rather than the total amount of ra...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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University of Brawijaya
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Degraded and Mining Lands Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://jdmlm.ub.ac.id/index.php/jdmlm/article/view/394 |
| _version_ | 1818137186863677440 |
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| author | Birhan Getachew Menberu Teshome |
| author_facet | Birhan Getachew Menberu Teshome |
| author_sort | Birhan Getachew |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Information on seasonal Kiremet and seasonal Belg rainfall amount is important in the rain fed agriculture of Ethiopia since more than 85% of the population is dependent on agriculture particularly on rain fed farming practices. The distribution pattern of rainfall rather than the total amount of rainfall within the entire period of time is more important for studying the pattern of rainfall occurrence. A two-state Markov chain was used to describe the characteristics of rainfall occurrences in this woreda. The states, as considered were; dry (d) and rainy (r). The overall chance of rain and the fitted curve tells us that the chance of getting rain in the main rainy season is about twice as compared to the small rainy season. The first order Markov chain model indicates that the probability of getting rain in the small rainy season is significantly dependent on whether the earlier date was dry or wet. While the second order Marko chain indicates that the main rainy season the dependence of the probability of rain on the previous two dates’ conditions is less as compared with the small rainy season. Rainfall amounts are very variable and are usually modeled by a gamma distribution. Therefore, the pattern of rainfall is somewhat unimodial having only one extreme value in August. Onset, cessation and length of growing season of rainfall for the main rainy season show medium variation compared to the small rainy season. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T09:52:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-54bf78ae9e344143937da06d3a83eaa8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2339-076X 2502-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T09:52:18Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | University of Brawijaya |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Degraded and Mining Lands Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-54bf78ae9e344143937da06d3a83eaa82022-12-22T01:12:22ZengUniversity of BrawijayaJournal of Degraded and Mining Lands Management2339-076X2502-24582018-01-01521141115210.15243/jdmlm.2018.052.1141169Markov chain modeling of daily rainfall in Lay Gaint Woreda, South Gonder Zone, EthiopiaBirhan Getachew0Menberu Teshome1Debre Tabor University Department of Geography and Environmental StudiesDebre Tabor University, Research and Community Service vice President, P.O. Box 272, Debre Tabor, EthiopiaInformation on seasonal Kiremet and seasonal Belg rainfall amount is important in the rain fed agriculture of Ethiopia since more than 85% of the population is dependent on agriculture particularly on rain fed farming practices. The distribution pattern of rainfall rather than the total amount of rainfall within the entire period of time is more important for studying the pattern of rainfall occurrence. A two-state Markov chain was used to describe the characteristics of rainfall occurrences in this woreda. The states, as considered were; dry (d) and rainy (r). The overall chance of rain and the fitted curve tells us that the chance of getting rain in the main rainy season is about twice as compared to the small rainy season. The first order Markov chain model indicates that the probability of getting rain in the small rainy season is significantly dependent on whether the earlier date was dry or wet. While the second order Marko chain indicates that the main rainy season the dependence of the probability of rain on the previous two dates’ conditions is less as compared with the small rainy season. Rainfall amounts are very variable and are usually modeled by a gamma distribution. Therefore, the pattern of rainfall is somewhat unimodial having only one extreme value in August. Onset, cessation and length of growing season of rainfall for the main rainy season show medium variation compared to the small rainy season.http://jdmlm.ub.ac.id/index.php/jdmlm/article/view/394cessationgamma distributionlength of growing seasonMarkov chainonset |
| spellingShingle | Birhan Getachew Menberu Teshome Markov chain modeling of daily rainfall in Lay Gaint Woreda, South Gonder Zone, Ethiopia Journal of Degraded and Mining Lands Management cessation gamma distribution length of growing season Markov chain onset |
| title | Markov chain modeling of daily rainfall in Lay Gaint Woreda, South Gonder Zone, Ethiopia |
| title_full | Markov chain modeling of daily rainfall in Lay Gaint Woreda, South Gonder Zone, Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Markov chain modeling of daily rainfall in Lay Gaint Woreda, South Gonder Zone, Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Markov chain modeling of daily rainfall in Lay Gaint Woreda, South Gonder Zone, Ethiopia |
| title_short | Markov chain modeling of daily rainfall in Lay Gaint Woreda, South Gonder Zone, Ethiopia |
| title_sort | markov chain modeling of daily rainfall in lay gaint woreda south gonder zone ethiopia |
| topic | cessation gamma distribution length of growing season Markov chain onset |
| url | http://jdmlm.ub.ac.id/index.php/jdmlm/article/view/394 |
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