GOBLIN version 1.0: a land balance model to identify national agriculture and land use pathways to climate neutrality via backcasting
<p>The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup>C</span> above pre-industrial times using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to d...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2022-03-01
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| Series: | Geoscientific Model Development |
| Online Access: | https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/2239/2022/gmd-15-2239-2022.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup>C</span>
above pre-industrial times using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress. Numerous industrialised economies have targets
to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular
uncertainty remains over the role of countries' agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sectors for reasons including the potential trade-offs
between GHG mitigation and food security, a non-zero emission target for methane as a short-lived GHG, and the requirement for AFOLU to act as a net sink to
offset residual emissions from other sectors. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that indicate
the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management
strategies at a national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale using the
example of Ireland, where approximately 40 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Backcasting approach
of Livestock INtensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations within biophysical
constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields, and forest growth rates). Using AFOLU emission
factors from national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN calculates annual GHG emissions out to the selected target year for each
scenario (2050 in this case). The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120 so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement
commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of the 21st century. Filtering randomised scenarios according to
compliance with specific biophysical definitions (GHG time series) of climate neutrality will provide scientific boundaries for appropriate
long-term actions within NDCs. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of GOBLIN, with an emphasis on biophysical linkages
across food production, GHG emissions, and carbon sinks at a national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate different
scenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 1991-959X 1991-9603 |