Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate-risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.0
<p>Modelling the risk of natural hazards for society, ecosystems, and the economy is subject to strong uncertainties, even more so in the context of a changing climate, evolving societies, growing economies, and declining ecosystems. Here, we present a new feature of the climate-risk modellin...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Geoscientific Model Development |
| Online Access: | https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/7177/2022/gmd-15-7177-2022.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811204489462415360 |
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| author | C. M. Kropf C. M. Kropf A. Ciullo A. Ciullo L. Otth S. Meiler S. Meiler A. Rana E. Schmid J. W. McCaughey J. W. McCaughey D. N. Bresch D. N. Bresch |
| author_facet | C. M. Kropf C. M. Kropf A. Ciullo A. Ciullo L. Otth S. Meiler S. Meiler A. Rana E. Schmid J. W. McCaughey J. W. McCaughey D. N. Bresch D. N. Bresch |
| author_sort | C. M. Kropf |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Modelling the risk of natural hazards for society, ecosystems, and the economy is subject to strong uncertainties, even more so in the context of a changing climate, evolving societies, growing economies, and declining ecosystems. Here, we present a new feature of the climate-risk modelling platform CLIMADA (CLIMate ADAptation), which allows us to carry out global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. CLIMADA underpins the Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) methodology which provides decision-makers with a fact base to understand the impact of weather and climate on their economies, communities, and ecosystems, including the appraisal of bespoke adaptation options today and in future. We apply the new feature to an ECA analysis of risk from tropical cyclone storm surge to people in Vietnam to showcase the comprehensive treatment of uncertainty and sensitivity of the model outputs, such as the spatial distribution of risk exceedance probabilities or the benefits of different adaptation options. We argue that broader application of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis will enhance transparency and intercomparison of studies among climate-risk modellers and help focus future research. For decision-makers and other users of climate-risk modelling, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has the potential to lead to better-informed decisions on climate adaptation. Beyond provision of uncertainty quantification, the presented approach does contextualize risk assessment and options appraisal, and might be used to inform the development of storylines and climate adaptation narratives.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T03:14:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-54d2ea3bcb16417db98e3d0c1ed4122a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1991-959X 1991-9603 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T03:14:13Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geoscientific Model Development |
| spelling | doaj.art-54d2ea3bcb16417db98e3d0c1ed4122a2022-12-22T03:50:14ZengCopernicus PublicationsGeoscientific Model Development1991-959X1991-96032022-09-01157177720110.5194/gmd-15-7177-2022Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate-risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.0C. M. Kropf0C. M. Kropf1A. Ciullo2A. Ciullo3L. Otth4S. Meiler5S. Meiler6A. Rana7E. SchmidJ. W. McCaughey8J. W. McCaughey9D. N. Bresch10D. N. Bresch11Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Universitätstr. 16, 8092 Zurich, SwitzerlandFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Operation Center 1, P.O. Box 257, 8058 Zurich Airport, SwitzerlandInstitute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Universitätstr. 16, 8092 Zurich, SwitzerlandFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Operation Center 1, P.O. Box 257, 8058 Zurich Airport, SwitzerlandInstitute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Universitätstr. 16, 8092 Zurich, SwitzerlandInstitute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Universitätstr. 16, 8092 Zurich, SwitzerlandFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Operation Center 1, P.O. Box 257, 8058 Zurich Airport, SwitzerlandFrankfurt School of Finance and Management Gemeinnützige GmbH, Adickesallee 32–34, 60322 Frankfurt am Main, GermanyInstitute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Universitätstr. 16, 8092 Zurich, SwitzerlandFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Operation Center 1, P.O. Box 257, 8058 Zurich Airport, SwitzerlandInstitute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Universitätstr. 16, 8092 Zurich, SwitzerlandFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Operation Center 1, P.O. Box 257, 8058 Zurich Airport, Switzerland<p>Modelling the risk of natural hazards for society, ecosystems, and the economy is subject to strong uncertainties, even more so in the context of a changing climate, evolving societies, growing economies, and declining ecosystems. Here, we present a new feature of the climate-risk modelling platform CLIMADA (CLIMate ADAptation), which allows us to carry out global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. CLIMADA underpins the Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) methodology which provides decision-makers with a fact base to understand the impact of weather and climate on their economies, communities, and ecosystems, including the appraisal of bespoke adaptation options today and in future. We apply the new feature to an ECA analysis of risk from tropical cyclone storm surge to people in Vietnam to showcase the comprehensive treatment of uncertainty and sensitivity of the model outputs, such as the spatial distribution of risk exceedance probabilities or the benefits of different adaptation options. We argue that broader application of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis will enhance transparency and intercomparison of studies among climate-risk modellers and help focus future research. For decision-makers and other users of climate-risk modelling, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has the potential to lead to better-informed decisions on climate adaptation. Beyond provision of uncertainty quantification, the presented approach does contextualize risk assessment and options appraisal, and might be used to inform the development of storylines and climate adaptation narratives.</p>https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/7177/2022/gmd-15-7177-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | C. M. Kropf C. M. Kropf A. Ciullo A. Ciullo L. Otth S. Meiler S. Meiler A. Rana E. Schmid J. W. McCaughey J. W. McCaughey D. N. Bresch D. N. Bresch Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate-risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.0 Geoscientific Model Development |
| title | Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate-risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.0 |
| title_full | Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate-risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.0 |
| title_fullStr | Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate-risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.0 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate-risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.0 |
| title_short | Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate-risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.0 |
| title_sort | uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate risk modelling an implementation in climada v 3 1 0 |
| url | https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/7177/2022/gmd-15-7177-2022.pdf |
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