Not by desire alone: The role of cognitive consistency in the desirability bias
We demonstrate that the desirability bias, the elevation of the estimated likelihood of a preferred event, can be due in part to the desire for consistency between the preference for the favored event and its predicted likelihood. An experiment uses a participant’s favorite team in Major League Base...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge University Press
2016-09-01
|
| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.sjdm.org/15/15802/jdm15802.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797763629950435328 |
|---|---|
| author | J. Edward Russo Jonathan C. Corbin |
| author_facet | J. Edward Russo Jonathan C. Corbin |
| author_sort | J. Edward Russo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We demonstrate that
the desirability bias, the elevation of the estimated likelihood of a preferred
event, can be due in part to the desire for consistency between the preference
for the favored event and its predicted likelihood. An experiment uses a
participant’s favorite team in Major League Baseball games and a recently
devised method for priming the consistency goal. When preference is the first
response, priming cognitive consistency moves prediction toward greater
agreement with that preference, thereby increasing the desirability bias. In
contrast, when prediction is the first response, priming cognitive consistency
facilitates greater agreement with the factual information for each game. This
increases the accuracy of the prediction and reduces the desirability
bias. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T19:44:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-556d20eedb6a4c5394ef305a1cdf9bdb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1930-2975 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T19:44:13Z |
| publishDate | 2016-09-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Judgment and Decision Making |
| spelling | doaj.art-556d20eedb6a4c5394ef305a1cdf9bdb2023-08-02T03:37:30ZengCambridge University PressJudgment and Decision Making1930-29752016-09-01115449459Not by desire alone: The role of cognitive consistency in the desirability biasJ. Edward RussoJonathan C. CorbinWe demonstrate that the desirability bias, the elevation of the estimated likelihood of a preferred event, can be due in part to the desire for consistency between the preference for the favored event and its predicted likelihood. An experiment uses a participant’s favorite team in Major League Baseball games and a recently devised method for priming the consistency goal. When preference is the first response, priming cognitive consistency moves prediction toward greater agreement with that preference, thereby increasing the desirability bias. In contrast, when prediction is the first response, priming cognitive consistency facilitates greater agreement with the factual information for each game. This increases the accuracy of the prediction and reduces the desirability bias.http://journal.sjdm.org/15/15802/jdm15802.pdfcognitive consistency desirability bias goals priming wishful thinkingNAKeywords |
| spellingShingle | J. Edward Russo Jonathan C. Corbin Not by desire alone: The role of cognitive consistency in the desirability bias Judgment and Decision Making cognitive consistency desirability bias goals priming wishful thinkingNAKeywords |
| title | Not by desire alone:
The role of cognitive consistency in the desirability bias |
| title_full | Not by desire alone:
The role of cognitive consistency in the desirability bias |
| title_fullStr | Not by desire alone:
The role of cognitive consistency in the desirability bias |
| title_full_unstemmed | Not by desire alone:
The role of cognitive consistency in the desirability bias |
| title_short | Not by desire alone:
The role of cognitive consistency in the desirability bias |
| title_sort | not by desire alone the role of cognitive consistency in the desirability bias |
| topic | cognitive consistency desirability bias goals priming wishful thinkingNAKeywords |
| url | http://journal.sjdm.org/15/15802/jdm15802.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jedwardrusso notbydesirealonetheroleofcognitiveconsistencyinthedesirabilitybias AT jonathanccorbin notbydesirealonetheroleofcognitiveconsistencyinthedesirabilitybias |