Evaluation of Extension and USDA Price and Production Forecasts
This study evaluates agricultural forecasting accuracy in an analysis of responses to the Annual Outlook Survey conducted by the American Agricultural Economics Association from 1983 through 1995. Representative extension and composite, production, and price forecasts for several commodities are con...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Western Agricultural Economics Association
1998-07-01
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| Series: | Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/31180 |
| _version_ | 1811213153690714112 |
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| author | Terry L. Kastens Ted C. Schroeder Ronald L. Plain |
| author_facet | Terry L. Kastens Ted C. Schroeder Ronald L. Plain |
| author_sort | Terry L. Kastens |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study evaluates agricultural forecasting accuracy in an analysis of responses to the Annual Outlook Survey conducted by the American Agricultural Economics Association from 1983 through 1995. Representative extension and composite, production, and price forecasts for several commodities are constructed from the survey data. These forecasts are compared to each other and to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and futures-based forecasts. Relationships between forecast features and accuracy are examined. Generally, extension forecasts are more accurate than USDA forecasts for livestock series, but not more accurate for crops. Composite forecasts are often more accurate than either extension or USDA forecasts. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T05:42:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-55c8d08f59b14bb889396830adcfa3af |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1068-5502 2327-8285 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T05:42:05Z |
| publishDate | 1998-07-01 |
| publisher | Western Agricultural Economics Association |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics |
| spelling | doaj.art-55c8d08f59b14bb889396830adcfa3af2022-12-22T03:45:37ZengWestern Agricultural Economics AssociationJournal of Agricultural and Resource Economics1068-55022327-82851998-07-0123124426110.22004/ag.econ.3118031180Evaluation of Extension and USDA Price and Production ForecastsTerry L. KastensTed C. SchroederRonald L. PlainThis study evaluates agricultural forecasting accuracy in an analysis of responses to the Annual Outlook Survey conducted by the American Agricultural Economics Association from 1983 through 1995. Representative extension and composite, production, and price forecasts for several commodities are constructed from the survey data. These forecasts are compared to each other and to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and futures-based forecasts. Relationships between forecast features and accuracy are examined. Generally, extension forecasts are more accurate than USDA forecasts for livestock series, but not more accurate for crops. Composite forecasts are often more accurate than either extension or USDA forecasts.https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/31180extension forecastingforecast accuracyforecasting |
| spellingShingle | Terry L. Kastens Ted C. Schroeder Ronald L. Plain Evaluation of Extension and USDA Price and Production Forecasts Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics extension forecasting forecast accuracy forecasting |
| title | Evaluation of Extension and USDA Price and Production Forecasts |
| title_full | Evaluation of Extension and USDA Price and Production Forecasts |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of Extension and USDA Price and Production Forecasts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of Extension and USDA Price and Production Forecasts |
| title_short | Evaluation of Extension and USDA Price and Production Forecasts |
| title_sort | evaluation of extension and usda price and production forecasts |
| topic | extension forecasting forecast accuracy forecasting |
| url | https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/31180 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT terrylkastens evaluationofextensionandusdapriceandproductionforecasts AT tedcschroeder evaluationofextensionandusdapriceandproductionforecasts AT ronaldlplain evaluationofextensionandusdapriceandproductionforecasts |