The mechanism shaping the logistic growth of mutation proportion in epidemics at population scale
Virus evolution is a common process of pathogen adaption to host population and environment. Frequently, a small but important fraction of virus mutations are reported to contribute to higher risks of host infection, which is one of the major determinants of infectious diseases outbreaks at populati...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042722001129 |
| _version_ | 1797204252272099328 |
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| author | Shi Zhao Inchi Hu Jingzhi Lou Marc K.C. Chong Lirong Cao Daihai He Benny C.Y. Zee Maggie H. Wang |
| author_facet | Shi Zhao Inchi Hu Jingzhi Lou Marc K.C. Chong Lirong Cao Daihai He Benny C.Y. Zee Maggie H. Wang |
| author_sort | Shi Zhao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Virus evolution is a common process of pathogen adaption to host population and environment. Frequently, a small but important fraction of virus mutations are reported to contribute to higher risks of host infection, which is one of the major determinants of infectious diseases outbreaks at population scale. The key mutations contributing to transmission advantage of a genetic variant often grow and reach fixation rapidly. Based on classic epidemiology theories of disease transmission, we proposed a mechanistic explanation of the process that between-host transmission advantage may shape the observed logistic curve of the mutation proportion in population. The logistic growth of mutation is further generalized by incorporating time-varying selective pressure to account for impacts of external factors on pathogen adaptiveness. The proposed model is implemented in real-world data of COVID-19 to capture the emerging trends and changing dynamics of the B.1.1.7 strains of SARS-CoV-2 in England. The model characterizes and establishes the underlying theoretical mechanism that shapes the logistic growth of mutation in population. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T23:32:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-55d9008a260b4954bd51aad13b6e0403 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2468-0427 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:32:16Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| spelling | doaj.art-55d9008a260b4954bd51aad13b6e04032024-04-16T19:00:00ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Infectious Disease Modelling2468-04272023-03-0181107121The mechanism shaping the logistic growth of mutation proportion in epidemics at population scaleShi Zhao0Inchi Hu1Jingzhi Lou2Marc K.C. Chong3Lirong Cao4Daihai He5Benny C.Y. Zee6Maggie H. Wang7JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, ChinaDepartment of Information Systems, Business Statistics and Operations Management, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, ChinaJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, ChinaJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, ChinaJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, ChinaDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, ChinaJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, ChinaJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China; Corresponding author. JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.Virus evolution is a common process of pathogen adaption to host population and environment. Frequently, a small but important fraction of virus mutations are reported to contribute to higher risks of host infection, which is one of the major determinants of infectious diseases outbreaks at population scale. The key mutations contributing to transmission advantage of a genetic variant often grow and reach fixation rapidly. Based on classic epidemiology theories of disease transmission, we proposed a mechanistic explanation of the process that between-host transmission advantage may shape the observed logistic curve of the mutation proportion in population. The logistic growth of mutation is further generalized by incorporating time-varying selective pressure to account for impacts of external factors on pathogen adaptiveness. The proposed model is implemented in real-world data of COVID-19 to capture the emerging trends and changing dynamics of the B.1.1.7 strains of SARS-CoV-2 in England. The model characterizes and establishes the underlying theoretical mechanism that shapes the logistic growth of mutation in population.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042722001129Transmission advantageLogistic growthPopulation dynamicsSelective pressureCOVID-19 |
| spellingShingle | Shi Zhao Inchi Hu Jingzhi Lou Marc K.C. Chong Lirong Cao Daihai He Benny C.Y. Zee Maggie H. Wang The mechanism shaping the logistic growth of mutation proportion in epidemics at population scale Infectious Disease Modelling Transmission advantage Logistic growth Population dynamics Selective pressure COVID-19 |
| title | The mechanism shaping the logistic growth of mutation proportion in epidemics at population scale |
| title_full | The mechanism shaping the logistic growth of mutation proportion in epidemics at population scale |
| title_fullStr | The mechanism shaping the logistic growth of mutation proportion in epidemics at population scale |
| title_full_unstemmed | The mechanism shaping the logistic growth of mutation proportion in epidemics at population scale |
| title_short | The mechanism shaping the logistic growth of mutation proportion in epidemics at population scale |
| title_sort | mechanism shaping the logistic growth of mutation proportion in epidemics at population scale |
| topic | Transmission advantage Logistic growth Population dynamics Selective pressure COVID-19 |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042722001129 |
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