Subseasonal controls of U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones
Abstract Landfalling tropical cyclones (LTCs) are the most devastating disaster to affect the U.S., while the demonstration of skillful subseasonal (between 10 days and one season) prediction of LTCs is less promising. Understanding the mechanisms governing the subseasonal variation of TC activity i...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2022-08-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00289-9 |
| _version_ | 1811215433318006784 |
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| author | Baoqiang Xiang Bin Wang Wei Zhang Lucas Harris Thomas L. Delworth Gan Zhang William F. Cooke |
| author_facet | Baoqiang Xiang Bin Wang Wei Zhang Lucas Harris Thomas L. Delworth Gan Zhang William F. Cooke |
| author_sort | Baoqiang Xiang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Landfalling tropical cyclones (LTCs) are the most devastating disaster to affect the U.S., while the demonstration of skillful subseasonal (between 10 days and one season) prediction of LTCs is less promising. Understanding the mechanisms governing the subseasonal variation of TC activity is fundamental to improving its forecast, which is of critical interest to decision-makers and the insurance industry. This work reveals three localized atmospheric circulation modes with significant 10–30 days subseasonal variations: Piedmont Oscillation (PO), Great America Dipole (GAD), and the Subtropical High ridge (SHR) modes. These modes strongly modulate precipitation, TC genesis, intensity, track, and landfall near the U.S. coast. Compared to their strong negative phases, the U.S. East Coast has 19 times more LTCs during the strong positive phases of PO, and the Gulf Coast experiences 4–12 times more frequent LTCs during the positive phases of GAD and SHR. Results from the GFDL SPEAR model show a skillful prediction of 13, 9, and 22 days for these three modes, respectively. Our findings are expected to benefit the prediction of LTCs on weather timescale and also suggest opportunities exist for subseasonal predictions of LTCs and their associated heavy rainfalls. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T06:21:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-55d933cd8e384d44b1f1d4660d661445 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T06:21:19Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-55d933cd8e384d44b1f1d4660d6614452022-12-22T03:44:17ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222022-08-01511910.1038/s41612-022-00289-9Subseasonal controls of U.S. landfalling tropical cyclonesBaoqiang Xiang0Bin Wang1Wei Zhang2Lucas Harris3Thomas L. Delworth4Gan Zhang5William F. Cooke6NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center, University of HawaiiDepartment of Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah State UniversityNOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryNOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryNOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryNOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryAbstract Landfalling tropical cyclones (LTCs) are the most devastating disaster to affect the U.S., while the demonstration of skillful subseasonal (between 10 days and one season) prediction of LTCs is less promising. Understanding the mechanisms governing the subseasonal variation of TC activity is fundamental to improving its forecast, which is of critical interest to decision-makers and the insurance industry. This work reveals three localized atmospheric circulation modes with significant 10–30 days subseasonal variations: Piedmont Oscillation (PO), Great America Dipole (GAD), and the Subtropical High ridge (SHR) modes. These modes strongly modulate precipitation, TC genesis, intensity, track, and landfall near the U.S. coast. Compared to their strong negative phases, the U.S. East Coast has 19 times more LTCs during the strong positive phases of PO, and the Gulf Coast experiences 4–12 times more frequent LTCs during the positive phases of GAD and SHR. Results from the GFDL SPEAR model show a skillful prediction of 13, 9, and 22 days for these three modes, respectively. Our findings are expected to benefit the prediction of LTCs on weather timescale and also suggest opportunities exist for subseasonal predictions of LTCs and their associated heavy rainfalls.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00289-9 |
| spellingShingle | Baoqiang Xiang Bin Wang Wei Zhang Lucas Harris Thomas L. Delworth Gan Zhang William F. Cooke Subseasonal controls of U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Subseasonal controls of U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones |
| title_full | Subseasonal controls of U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones |
| title_fullStr | Subseasonal controls of U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones |
| title_full_unstemmed | Subseasonal controls of U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones |
| title_short | Subseasonal controls of U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones |
| title_sort | subseasonal controls of u s landfalling tropical cyclones |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00289-9 |
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