A Small State’s Cyber Posture: Deterrence by Punishment and Beyond
This study explores a small-state’s offensive cyber capabilities as a deterrent against great-power cyber hostilities. More specifically, it poses the question: Could Norway successfully deter hostile cyber operations of greater powers, notably China and Russia, by signaling a resolve to retaliate w...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Scandinavian Military Studies
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies |
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| Online Access: | https://account.sjms.nu/index.php/sms-j-sjms/article/view/191 |
| _version_ | 1797777786974240768 |
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| author | Torbjørn Pedersen |
| author_facet | Torbjørn Pedersen |
| author_sort | Torbjørn Pedersen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study explores a small-state’s offensive cyber capabilities as a deterrent against great-power cyber hostilities. More specifically, it poses the question: Could Norway successfully deter hostile cyber operations of greater powers, notably China and Russia, by signaling a resolve to retaliate within the same domain? The study reviews literature on the small state’s prospects of acquiring relevant offensive cyber capabilities; successfully signaling a deterrence-by-punishment posture; and, more generally, on the intricacies of retaliating against a greater power. The study concludes that most small states would enter the cyber battlefield with non-strategic and surreptitious capabilities, be inclined to signal their resolve with considerable ambiguity, and be compelled to respond with deniable means. It finds that such obscure features – the hallmarks of murky clandestine operations rather than a strategic posture – do not provide efficacious deterrence. Hence, to Norway and similar small states, deterrence by punishment may be an elusive, if not altogether vain, cyber posture. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T23:08:33Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-55e1ea6b50c849db863b82941fab495e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2596-3856 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T23:08:33Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | Scandinavian Military Studies |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies |
| spelling | doaj.art-55e1ea6b50c849db863b82941fab495e2023-07-18T08:27:53ZengScandinavian Military StudiesScandinavian Journal of Military Studies2596-38562023-06-016158–6858–6810.31374/sjms.19184A Small State’s Cyber Posture: Deterrence by Punishment and BeyondTorbjørn Pedersen0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3324-4752Nord UniversityThis study explores a small-state’s offensive cyber capabilities as a deterrent against great-power cyber hostilities. More specifically, it poses the question: Could Norway successfully deter hostile cyber operations of greater powers, notably China and Russia, by signaling a resolve to retaliate within the same domain? The study reviews literature on the small state’s prospects of acquiring relevant offensive cyber capabilities; successfully signaling a deterrence-by-punishment posture; and, more generally, on the intricacies of retaliating against a greater power. The study concludes that most small states would enter the cyber battlefield with non-strategic and surreptitious capabilities, be inclined to signal their resolve with considerable ambiguity, and be compelled to respond with deniable means. It finds that such obscure features – the hallmarks of murky clandestine operations rather than a strategic posture – do not provide efficacious deterrence. Hence, to Norway and similar small states, deterrence by punishment may be an elusive, if not altogether vain, cyber posture.https://account.sjms.nu/index.php/sms-j-sjms/article/view/191ambiguitycyber deterrencedeniable meansnorwaysignaling |
| spellingShingle | Torbjørn Pedersen A Small State’s Cyber Posture: Deterrence by Punishment and Beyond Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies ambiguity cyber deterrence deniable means norway signaling |
| title | A Small State’s Cyber Posture: Deterrence by Punishment and Beyond |
| title_full | A Small State’s Cyber Posture: Deterrence by Punishment and Beyond |
| title_fullStr | A Small State’s Cyber Posture: Deterrence by Punishment and Beyond |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Small State’s Cyber Posture: Deterrence by Punishment and Beyond |
| title_short | A Small State’s Cyber Posture: Deterrence by Punishment and Beyond |
| title_sort | small state s cyber posture deterrence by punishment and beyond |
| topic | ambiguity cyber deterrence deniable means norway signaling |
| url | https://account.sjms.nu/index.php/sms-j-sjms/article/view/191 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT torbjørnpedersen asmallstatescyberposturedeterrencebypunishmentandbeyond AT torbjørnpedersen smallstatescyberposturedeterrencebypunishmentandbeyond |