Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting with a Composite Fundamental-Econometric Hybrid Methodology
Various power exchanges are nowadays being affected by a plethora of factors that, as a whole, cause considerable instabilities in the system. As a result, traders and practitioners must constantly adapt their strategies and look for support for their decision-making when operating in the market. In...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2019-03-01
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| Series: | Energies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/6/1067 |
| _version_ | 1798002824934588416 |
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| author | Rodrigo A. de Marcos Antonio Bello Javier Reneses |
| author_facet | Rodrigo A. de Marcos Antonio Bello Javier Reneses |
| author_sort | Rodrigo A. de Marcos |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Various power exchanges are nowadays being affected by a plethora of factors that, as a whole, cause considerable instabilities in the system. As a result, traders and practitioners must constantly adapt their strategies and look for support for their decision-making when operating in the market. In many cases, this calls for suitable electricity price forecasting models that can account for relevant aspects for electricity price forecasting. Consequently, fundamental-econometric hybrid approaches have been developed by many authors in the literature, although these have rarely been applied in short-term contexts, where other considerations and issues must be addressed. Therefore, this work aims to develop a robust hybrid methodology that is capable of making the most of the advantages fundamental and the hybrid model in a synergistic manner, while also providing insight as to how well these models perform across the year. Several methods have been utilised in this work in order to modify the hybridisation approach and the input datasets for enhanced predictive accuracy. The performance of this proposal has been analysed in the real case study of the Iberian power exchange and has outperformed other well-recognised and traditional methods. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T11:59:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-566d781473bd4c08bee832c9a7301c44 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T11:59:34Z |
| publishDate | 2019-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-566d781473bd4c08bee832c9a7301c442022-12-22T04:24:57ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732019-03-01126106710.3390/en12061067en12061067Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting with a Composite Fundamental-Econometric Hybrid MethodologyRodrigo A. de Marcos0Antonio Bello1Javier Reneses2Institute for Research in Technology, Technical School of Engineering (ICAI), Universidad Pontificia Comillas, 28015 Madrid, SpainInstitute for Research in Technology, Technical School of Engineering (ICAI), Universidad Pontificia Comillas, 28015 Madrid, SpainInstitute for Research in Technology, Technical School of Engineering (ICAI), Universidad Pontificia Comillas, 28015 Madrid, SpainVarious power exchanges are nowadays being affected by a plethora of factors that, as a whole, cause considerable instabilities in the system. As a result, traders and practitioners must constantly adapt their strategies and look for support for their decision-making when operating in the market. In many cases, this calls for suitable electricity price forecasting models that can account for relevant aspects for electricity price forecasting. Consequently, fundamental-econometric hybrid approaches have been developed by many authors in the literature, although these have rarely been applied in short-term contexts, where other considerations and issues must be addressed. Therefore, this work aims to develop a robust hybrid methodology that is capable of making the most of the advantages fundamental and the hybrid model in a synergistic manner, while also providing insight as to how well these models perform across the year. Several methods have been utilised in this work in order to modify the hybridisation approach and the input datasets for enhanced predictive accuracy. The performance of this proposal has been analysed in the real case study of the Iberian power exchange and has outperformed other well-recognised and traditional methods.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/6/1067forecast combinationfundamental-econometric modelshybrid modelspower exchangesshort-term electricity price forecasting |
| spellingShingle | Rodrigo A. de Marcos Antonio Bello Javier Reneses Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting with a Composite Fundamental-Econometric Hybrid Methodology Energies forecast combination fundamental-econometric models hybrid models power exchanges short-term electricity price forecasting |
| title | Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting with a Composite Fundamental-Econometric Hybrid Methodology |
| title_full | Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting with a Composite Fundamental-Econometric Hybrid Methodology |
| title_fullStr | Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting with a Composite Fundamental-Econometric Hybrid Methodology |
| title_full_unstemmed | Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting with a Composite Fundamental-Econometric Hybrid Methodology |
| title_short | Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting with a Composite Fundamental-Econometric Hybrid Methodology |
| title_sort | short term electricity price forecasting with a composite fundamental econometric hybrid methodology |
| topic | forecast combination fundamental-econometric models hybrid models power exchanges short-term electricity price forecasting |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/6/1067 |
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