Estimation of Expectations and Variance Components in Two-Level Nested Simulation Experiments
When there is uncertainty in the value of parameters of the input random components of a stochastic simulation model, two-level nested simulation algorithms are used to estimate the expectation of performance variables of interest. In the outer level of the algorithm <i>n</i> observation...
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MDPI AG
2023-08-01
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2673-9909/3/3/31 |
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| author | David Fernando Muñoz |
| author_facet | David Fernando Muñoz |
| author_sort | David Fernando Muñoz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | When there is uncertainty in the value of parameters of the input random components of a stochastic simulation model, two-level nested simulation algorithms are used to estimate the expectation of performance variables of interest. In the outer level of the algorithm <i>n</i> observations are generated for the parameters, and in the inner level <i>m</i> observations of the simulation model are generated with the values of parameters fixed at the values generated in the outer level. In this article, we consider the case in which the observations at both levels of the algorithm are independent and show how the variance of the observations can be decomposed into the sum of a parametric variance and a stochastic variance. Next, we derive central limit theorems that allow us to compute asymptotic confidence intervals to assess the accuracy of the simulation-based estimators for the point forecast and the variance components. Under this framework, we derive analytical expressions for the point forecast and the variance components of a Bayesian model to forecast sporadic demand, and we use these expressions to illustrate the validity of our theoretical results by performing simulation experiments with this forecast model. We found that, given a fixed number of total observations <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>n</mi><mi>m</mi></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>, the choice of only one replication in the inner level (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>m</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>) is recommended to obtain a more accurate estimator for the expectation of a performance variable. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T23:05:24Z |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2673-9909 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T23:05:24Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
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| series | AppliedMath |
| spelling | doaj.art-56827227f084440ab3fba1b8d812cbf42023-11-19T09:20:46ZengMDPI AGAppliedMath2673-99092023-08-013358260010.3390/appliedmath3030031Estimation of Expectations and Variance Components in Two-Level Nested Simulation ExperimentsDavid Fernando Muñoz0Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México, Rio Hondo 1, Mexico City 01080, MexicoWhen there is uncertainty in the value of parameters of the input random components of a stochastic simulation model, two-level nested simulation algorithms are used to estimate the expectation of performance variables of interest. In the outer level of the algorithm <i>n</i> observations are generated for the parameters, and in the inner level <i>m</i> observations of the simulation model are generated with the values of parameters fixed at the values generated in the outer level. In this article, we consider the case in which the observations at both levels of the algorithm are independent and show how the variance of the observations can be decomposed into the sum of a parametric variance and a stochastic variance. Next, we derive central limit theorems that allow us to compute asymptotic confidence intervals to assess the accuracy of the simulation-based estimators for the point forecast and the variance components. Under this framework, we derive analytical expressions for the point forecast and the variance components of a Bayesian model to forecast sporadic demand, and we use these expressions to illustrate the validity of our theoretical results by performing simulation experiments with this forecast model. We found that, given a fixed number of total observations <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>n</mi><mi>m</mi></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>, the choice of only one replication in the inner level (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>m</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>) is recommended to obtain a more accurate estimator for the expectation of a performance variable.https://www.mdpi.com/2673-9909/3/3/31Bayesian forecastingstochastic simulationparameter uncertaintytwo-level simulation |
| spellingShingle | David Fernando Muñoz Estimation of Expectations and Variance Components in Two-Level Nested Simulation Experiments AppliedMath Bayesian forecasting stochastic simulation parameter uncertainty two-level simulation |
| title | Estimation of Expectations and Variance Components in Two-Level Nested Simulation Experiments |
| title_full | Estimation of Expectations and Variance Components in Two-Level Nested Simulation Experiments |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of Expectations and Variance Components in Two-Level Nested Simulation Experiments |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of Expectations and Variance Components in Two-Level Nested Simulation Experiments |
| title_short | Estimation of Expectations and Variance Components in Two-Level Nested Simulation Experiments |
| title_sort | estimation of expectations and variance components in two level nested simulation experiments |
| topic | Bayesian forecasting stochastic simulation parameter uncertainty two-level simulation |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2673-9909/3/3/31 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT davidfernandomunoz estimationofexpectationsandvariancecomponentsintwolevelnestedsimulationexperiments |