Estimating cropland requirements for global food system scenario modeling
IntroductionThe production of plant crops is foundational to the global food system. With the need for this system to become more sustainable while feeding an increasing global population, tools to investigate future food system scenarios can be useful to aid decision making, but are often limited t...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-12-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2022.1063419/full |
| _version_ | 1797980735556026368 |
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| author | Nick W. Smith Andrew J. Fletcher Andrew J. Fletcher Peter Millard Jeremy P. Hill Jeremy P. Hill Warren C. McNabb |
| author_facet | Nick W. Smith Andrew J. Fletcher Andrew J. Fletcher Peter Millard Jeremy P. Hill Jeremy P. Hill Warren C. McNabb |
| author_sort | Nick W. Smith |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | IntroductionThe production of plant crops is foundational to the global food system. With the need for this system to become more sustainable while feeding an increasing global population, tools to investigate future food system scenarios can be useful to aid decision making, but are often limited to a calorie- or protein-centric view of human nutrition.MethodsHere, a mathematical model for forecasting the future cropland requirement to produce a given quantity of crop mass is presented in conjunction with the DELTA Model®: an existing food system scenario model calculating global availability of 29 nutrients against human requirements. The model uses national crop yield data to assign yield metrics for 137 crops.ResultsThe crops with the greatest variation between high and low yielding production were specific nuts, fruits, and vegetables of minor significance to global nutrient availability. The nut crop group showed the greatest overall yield variation between countries, and thus the greatest uncertainty when forecasting the cropland requirement for future increases in production. Sugar crops showed the least overall yield variation. The greatest potential for increasing global food production by improving poor yielding production was found for the most widely grown crops: maize, wheat, and rice, which were also demonstrated to be of high nutritional significance.DiscussionThe combined cropland and nutrient availability model allowed the contribution of plant production to global nutrition to be quantified, and the cropland requirement of future food production scenarios to be estimated. The unified cropland estimation and nutrient availability model presented here is an intuitive and broadly applicable tool for use in global food system scenario modeling. It should benefit future research and policy making by demonstrating the implications for human nutrition of changes to crop production, and conversely the implications for cropland requirement of food production scenarios aimed at improving nutrition. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T05:59:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-56baf0ec87c5462cafbf2841bb48d58c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2571-581X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T05:59:38Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems |
| spelling | doaj.art-56baf0ec87c5462cafbf2841bb48d58c2022-12-22T04:41:47ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems2571-581X2022-12-01610.3389/fsufs.2022.10634191063419Estimating cropland requirements for global food system scenario modelingNick W. Smith0Andrew J. Fletcher1Andrew J. Fletcher2Peter Millard3Jeremy P. Hill4Jeremy P. Hill5Warren C. McNabb6Sustainable Nutrition Initiative®, Riddet Institute, Massey University, Palmerston North, New ZealandSustainable Nutrition Initiative®, Riddet Institute, Massey University, Palmerston North, New ZealandFonterra Research and Development Centre, Palmerston North, New ZealandManaaki Whenua Landcare Research, Lincoln, New ZealandSustainable Nutrition Initiative®, Riddet Institute, Massey University, Palmerston North, New ZealandFonterra Research and Development Centre, Palmerston North, New ZealandSustainable Nutrition Initiative®, Riddet Institute, Massey University, Palmerston North, New ZealandIntroductionThe production of plant crops is foundational to the global food system. With the need for this system to become more sustainable while feeding an increasing global population, tools to investigate future food system scenarios can be useful to aid decision making, but are often limited to a calorie- or protein-centric view of human nutrition.MethodsHere, a mathematical model for forecasting the future cropland requirement to produce a given quantity of crop mass is presented in conjunction with the DELTA Model®: an existing food system scenario model calculating global availability of 29 nutrients against human requirements. The model uses national crop yield data to assign yield metrics for 137 crops.ResultsThe crops with the greatest variation between high and low yielding production were specific nuts, fruits, and vegetables of minor significance to global nutrient availability. The nut crop group showed the greatest overall yield variation between countries, and thus the greatest uncertainty when forecasting the cropland requirement for future increases in production. Sugar crops showed the least overall yield variation. The greatest potential for increasing global food production by improving poor yielding production was found for the most widely grown crops: maize, wheat, and rice, which were also demonstrated to be of high nutritional significance.DiscussionThe combined cropland and nutrient availability model allowed the contribution of plant production to global nutrition to be quantified, and the cropland requirement of future food production scenarios to be estimated. The unified cropland estimation and nutrient availability model presented here is an intuitive and broadly applicable tool for use in global food system scenario modeling. It should benefit future research and policy making by demonstrating the implications for human nutrition of changes to crop production, and conversely the implications for cropland requirement of food production scenarios aimed at improving nutrition.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2022.1063419/fullglobal food systemfood securitycomputational modelinghuman nutritionsustainability |
| spellingShingle | Nick W. Smith Andrew J. Fletcher Andrew J. Fletcher Peter Millard Jeremy P. Hill Jeremy P. Hill Warren C. McNabb Estimating cropland requirements for global food system scenario modeling Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems global food system food security computational modeling human nutrition sustainability |
| title | Estimating cropland requirements for global food system scenario modeling |
| title_full | Estimating cropland requirements for global food system scenario modeling |
| title_fullStr | Estimating cropland requirements for global food system scenario modeling |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating cropland requirements for global food system scenario modeling |
| title_short | Estimating cropland requirements for global food system scenario modeling |
| title_sort | estimating cropland requirements for global food system scenario modeling |
| topic | global food system food security computational modeling human nutrition sustainability |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2022.1063419/full |
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