The scenario-based variations and causes of future surface soil moisture across China in the twenty-first century
Surface soil moisture (SSM) is a key factor for water and heat exchanges between land surface and the atmosphere. It is also important to water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems. In the backdrop of global warming, SSM variations and potential causes are not well-known at regional scales. Based...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abde5e |
| _version_ | 1797747790519992320 |
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| author | Keke Fan Qiang Zhang Jianping Li Deliang Chen Chong-Yu Xu |
| author_facet | Keke Fan Qiang Zhang Jianping Li Deliang Chen Chong-Yu Xu |
| author_sort | Keke Fan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Surface soil moisture (SSM) is a key factor for water and heat exchanges between land surface and the atmosphere. It is also important to water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems. In the backdrop of global warming, SSM variations and potential causes are not well-known at regional scales. Based on soil moisture (SM) data from GLDAS-Noah and 16 global climate models (GCMs) selected from 25 GCMs in CMIP5, we analyzed spatial distribution and temporal changes of SSM in China and quantified fractional contributions of four meteorological factors to the SSM variations. The selected models have the same direction of historic trends in SSM during 1981–2005 as those in the GLDAS SSM data which were also further used to calibrate the trends simulated by the 16 GCMs. Based on the calibration results for the 16 GCMs, future SSMs for nine regions were analyzed in mainland China under four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. No significant changes were identified in SSM across most regions of mainland China under RCP2.6 scenario. However, there is a general wetting tendency in the arid regions and drying tendency across the humid regions under all the scenarios except RCP2.6. In general, the higher the global temperature raises, the more grids with significant increase or significant decrease in SSM. These findings contradicted prevailing view that wet regions get wetter and dry regions get drier. Attribution analysis indicates that precipitation acts as the major driver for SSM variations and contributes up to 43.4% of SSM variations across China. These results provide new insights into future SSM response to climate warming and a scientific basis to mitigation and adaptation works related to SSM in the future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:55:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-56d3cae9de9a42d998add3b22482767d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:55:39Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-56d3cae9de9a42d998add3b22482767d2023-08-09T14:55:06ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-0116303406110.1088/1748-9326/abde5eThe scenario-based variations and causes of future surface soil moisture across China in the twenty-first centuryKeke Fan0Qiang Zhang1Jianping Li2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0625-1575Deliang Chen3Chong-Yu Xu4Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University , Beijing 100875, People’s Republic of China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University , Beijing 100875, People’s Republic of China; Faculty of Geographical Science, Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University , Beijing 100875, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University , Beijing 100875, People’s Republic of China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University , Beijing 100875, People’s Republic of China; Faculty of Geographical Science, Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University , Beijing 100875, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China , Qingdao 266100, People’s Republic of ChinaRegional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg , Box 460, SE-405 30 Gothenburg, SwedenDepartment of Geosciences and Hydrology, University of Oslo , P O Box 1047 Blindern, N-0.16 Oslo, NorwaySurface soil moisture (SSM) is a key factor for water and heat exchanges between land surface and the atmosphere. It is also important to water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems. In the backdrop of global warming, SSM variations and potential causes are not well-known at regional scales. Based on soil moisture (SM) data from GLDAS-Noah and 16 global climate models (GCMs) selected from 25 GCMs in CMIP5, we analyzed spatial distribution and temporal changes of SSM in China and quantified fractional contributions of four meteorological factors to the SSM variations. The selected models have the same direction of historic trends in SSM during 1981–2005 as those in the GLDAS SSM data which were also further used to calibrate the trends simulated by the 16 GCMs. Based on the calibration results for the 16 GCMs, future SSMs for nine regions were analyzed in mainland China under four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. No significant changes were identified in SSM across most regions of mainland China under RCP2.6 scenario. However, there is a general wetting tendency in the arid regions and drying tendency across the humid regions under all the scenarios except RCP2.6. In general, the higher the global temperature raises, the more grids with significant increase or significant decrease in SSM. These findings contradicted prevailing view that wet regions get wetter and dry regions get drier. Attribution analysis indicates that precipitation acts as the major driver for SSM variations and contributes up to 43.4% of SSM variations across China. These results provide new insights into future SSM response to climate warming and a scientific basis to mitigation and adaptation works related to SSM in the future.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abde5esurface soil moisturespatiotemporal evolutionclimate scenarioshydrological cycle |
| spellingShingle | Keke Fan Qiang Zhang Jianping Li Deliang Chen Chong-Yu Xu The scenario-based variations and causes of future surface soil moisture across China in the twenty-first century Environmental Research Letters surface soil moisture spatiotemporal evolution climate scenarios hydrological cycle |
| title | The scenario-based variations and causes of future surface soil moisture across China in the twenty-first century |
| title_full | The scenario-based variations and causes of future surface soil moisture across China in the twenty-first century |
| title_fullStr | The scenario-based variations and causes of future surface soil moisture across China in the twenty-first century |
| title_full_unstemmed | The scenario-based variations and causes of future surface soil moisture across China in the twenty-first century |
| title_short | The scenario-based variations and causes of future surface soil moisture across China in the twenty-first century |
| title_sort | scenario based variations and causes of future surface soil moisture across china in the twenty first century |
| topic | surface soil moisture spatiotemporal evolution climate scenarios hydrological cycle |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abde5e |
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