Risk Assessment of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects—Assumptions and Context
This article deals with the partial outputs of large-scale infrastructure project risk assessment, specifically in the field of road and motorway construction. The Department of Transport spends a large amount of funds on project preparation and implementation, which however, must be allocated effec...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2020-12-01
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| Series: | Applied Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/1/109 |
| _version_ | 1797543562059972608 |
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| author | Jana Korytárová Vít Hromádka |
| author_facet | Jana Korytárová Vít Hromádka |
| author_sort | Jana Korytárová |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This article deals with the partial outputs of large-scale infrastructure project risk assessment, specifically in the field of road and motorway construction. The Department of Transport spends a large amount of funds on project preparation and implementation, which however, must be allocated effectively, and with knowledge of the risks that may accompany them. Therefore, documentation for decision-making on project financing also includes their analysis. This article monitors the frequency of occurrence of individual risk factors within the qualitative risk analysis, with the support of the national risk register, and identifies dependent variables that represent part of the economic cash flows for determining project economic efficiency. At the same time, it compares these dependent variables identified by sensitivity analysis with critical variables, followed by testing the interaction of the critical variables’ effect on the project efficiency using the Monte Carlo method. A partial section of the research was focused on the analysis of the probability distribution of input variables, especially “the investment costs” and “time savings of infrastructure users” variables. The research findings conclude that it is necessary to pay attention to the setting of statistical characteristics of variables entering the economic efficiency indicator calculations, as the decision of whether or not to accept projects for funding is based on them. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T13:47:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-56dcc637d8a747c1867df9f17c4706ef |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-3417 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T13:47:21Z |
| publishDate | 2020-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Applied Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-56dcc637d8a747c1867df9f17c4706ef2023-11-21T02:27:57ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172020-12-0111110910.3390/app11010109Risk Assessment of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects—Assumptions and ContextJana Korytárová0Vít Hromádka1Faculty of Civil Engineering, Brno University of Technology, 60200 Brno, Czech RepublicFaculty of Civil Engineering, Brno University of Technology, 60200 Brno, Czech RepublicThis article deals with the partial outputs of large-scale infrastructure project risk assessment, specifically in the field of road and motorway construction. The Department of Transport spends a large amount of funds on project preparation and implementation, which however, must be allocated effectively, and with knowledge of the risks that may accompany them. Therefore, documentation for decision-making on project financing also includes their analysis. This article monitors the frequency of occurrence of individual risk factors within the qualitative risk analysis, with the support of the national risk register, and identifies dependent variables that represent part of the economic cash flows for determining project economic efficiency. At the same time, it compares these dependent variables identified by sensitivity analysis with critical variables, followed by testing the interaction of the critical variables’ effect on the project efficiency using the Monte Carlo method. A partial section of the research was focused on the analysis of the probability distribution of input variables, especially “the investment costs” and “time savings of infrastructure users” variables. The research findings conclude that it is necessary to pay attention to the setting of statistical characteristics of variables entering the economic efficiency indicator calculations, as the decision of whether or not to accept projects for funding is based on them.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/1/109CBAinvestment projectprobability distributionsensitivity analysesrisk assessment |
| spellingShingle | Jana Korytárová Vít Hromádka Risk Assessment of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects—Assumptions and Context Applied Sciences CBA investment project probability distribution sensitivity analyses risk assessment |
| title | Risk Assessment of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects—Assumptions and Context |
| title_full | Risk Assessment of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects—Assumptions and Context |
| title_fullStr | Risk Assessment of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects—Assumptions and Context |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risk Assessment of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects—Assumptions and Context |
| title_short | Risk Assessment of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects—Assumptions and Context |
| title_sort | risk assessment of large scale infrastructure projects assumptions and context |
| topic | CBA investment project probability distribution sensitivity analyses risk assessment |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/1/109 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT janakorytarova riskassessmentoflargescaleinfrastructureprojectsassumptionsandcontext AT vithromadka riskassessmentoflargescaleinfrastructureprojectsassumptionsandcontext |