Current and future burdens of heat-related dementia hospital admissions in England
Introduction: The impacts of a changing climate on current and future dementia burdens have not been widely explored. Methods: Time-series negative binomial regression analysis was used to assess acute associations between daily ambient temperature and counts of emergency admissions for dementia in...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environment International |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412021006528 |
| _version_ | 1828146145295073280 |
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| author | Jessica Gong Cherie Part Shakoor Hajat |
| author_facet | Jessica Gong Cherie Part Shakoor Hajat |
| author_sort | Jessica Gong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Introduction: The impacts of a changing climate on current and future dementia burdens have not been widely explored. Methods: Time-series negative binomial regression analysis was used to assess acute associations between daily ambient temperature and counts of emergency admissions for dementia in each Government region of England, adjusting for season and day-of-week. Using the latest climate and dementia projections data, we then estimate future heat-related dementia burdens under a high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), where global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise, and a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6), where GHG emissions are sizeably reduced under a strong global mitigation policy. Results: A raised risk associated with high temperatures was observed in all regions. Nationally, a 4.5% (95% Confidence interval (CI) 2.9%–6.1%) increase in risk of dementia admission was observed for every 1 °C increase in temperature above 17 °C associated with current climate. Under a high emissions scenario, heat-related admissions are projected to increase by almost 300% by 2040 compared to baseline levels. Conclusions: People living with dementia should be considered a high-risk group during hot weather. Our results support arguments for more stringent climate change mitigation policies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T20:42:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-56de94411b9d4f569a237f086a9d179e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0160-4120 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T20:42:30Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environment International |
| spelling | doaj.art-56de94411b9d4f569a237f086a9d179e2022-12-22T04:04:08ZengElsevierEnvironment International0160-41202022-01-01159107027Current and future burdens of heat-related dementia hospital admissions in EnglandJessica Gong0Cherie Part1Shakoor Hajat2The George Institute for Global Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; Corresponding author at: The George Institute for Global Health, University of New South Wales, Level 5, 1 King St, Newtown, NSW 2042, Australia.Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UKCentre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UKIntroduction: The impacts of a changing climate on current and future dementia burdens have not been widely explored. Methods: Time-series negative binomial regression analysis was used to assess acute associations between daily ambient temperature and counts of emergency admissions for dementia in each Government region of England, adjusting for season and day-of-week. Using the latest climate and dementia projections data, we then estimate future heat-related dementia burdens under a high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), where global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise, and a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6), where GHG emissions are sizeably reduced under a strong global mitigation policy. Results: A raised risk associated with high temperatures was observed in all regions. Nationally, a 4.5% (95% Confidence interval (CI) 2.9%–6.1%) increase in risk of dementia admission was observed for every 1 °C increase in temperature above 17 °C associated with current climate. Under a high emissions scenario, heat-related admissions are projected to increase by almost 300% by 2040 compared to baseline levels. Conclusions: People living with dementia should be considered a high-risk group during hot weather. Our results support arguments for more stringent climate change mitigation policies.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412021006528Ambient temperatureClimate changeDementiaHospital admissionTime series |
| spellingShingle | Jessica Gong Cherie Part Shakoor Hajat Current and future burdens of heat-related dementia hospital admissions in England Environment International Ambient temperature Climate change Dementia Hospital admission Time series |
| title | Current and future burdens of heat-related dementia hospital admissions in England |
| title_full | Current and future burdens of heat-related dementia hospital admissions in England |
| title_fullStr | Current and future burdens of heat-related dementia hospital admissions in England |
| title_full_unstemmed | Current and future burdens of heat-related dementia hospital admissions in England |
| title_short | Current and future burdens of heat-related dementia hospital admissions in England |
| title_sort | current and future burdens of heat related dementia hospital admissions in england |
| topic | Ambient temperature Climate change Dementia Hospital admission Time series |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412021006528 |
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