The global temperature-related mortality impact of earlier decarbonization for the Australian health sector and economy: A modelling study
<h4>Background</h4> Sustained elevated concentration of GHGs is predicted to increase global mortality. With the Australian health sector responsible for 7% of the nation’s GHG emissions, the benefits and costs of various decarbonisation trajectories are currently being investigated. To...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2022-01-01
|
| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9348697/?tool=EBI |
| _version_ | 1811344055638949888 |
|---|---|
| author | Siddhanth Sharma R. Daniel Bressler Anand Bhopal Ole F. Norheim |
| author_facet | Siddhanth Sharma R. Daniel Bressler Anand Bhopal Ole F. Norheim |
| author_sort | Siddhanth Sharma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <h4>Background</h4> Sustained elevated concentration of GHGs is predicted to increase global mortality. With the Australian health sector responsible for 7% of the nation’s GHG emissions, the benefits and costs of various decarbonisation trajectories are currently being investigated. To assist with this effort, we model the impact earlier decarbonisation has on temperature-related mortality. <h4>Design</h4> We used DICE-EMR, an Integrated Assessment Model with an endogenous mortality response, to simulate Australian GHG trajectories and estimate the temperature-related mortality impact of early decarbonisation. We modelled a linear decline of the Australian health sector’s and economy’s GHG annual emissions to net-zero targets of 2040 and 2050. <h4>Main outcome measure</h4> Deaths averted and monetary-equivalent welfare gain. <h4>Results</h4> Decarbonisation of the Australian health sector by 2050 and 2040 is projected to avert an estimated 69,000 and 77,000 global temperature-related deaths respectively in a Baseline global emissions scenario. Australian economy decarbonisation by 2050 and 2040 is projected to avert an estimated 988,000 and 1,101,000 global deaths respectively. Assuming a low discount rate and high global emissions trajectory, we estimate a monetary equivalent welfare gain of $151 billion if the Australian health sector decarbonises by 2040, only accounting for the benefits in reducing temperature-related mortality. <h4>Conclusions</h4> Earlier decarbonisation has a significant impact on temperature-related mortality. Many uncertainties exist and health impacts other than temperature-related mortality are not captured by this analysis. Nevertheless, such models can help communicate the health risk of climate change and improve climate policy decision making. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T19:41:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-56f2d555271746af88ad2589953e82d9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T19:41:04Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-56f2d555271746af88ad2589953e82d92022-12-22T02:32:53ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032022-01-01178The global temperature-related mortality impact of earlier decarbonization for the Australian health sector and economy: A modelling studySiddhanth SharmaR. Daniel BresslerAnand BhopalOle F. Norheim<h4>Background</h4> Sustained elevated concentration of GHGs is predicted to increase global mortality. With the Australian health sector responsible for 7% of the nation’s GHG emissions, the benefits and costs of various decarbonisation trajectories are currently being investigated. To assist with this effort, we model the impact earlier decarbonisation has on temperature-related mortality. <h4>Design</h4> We used DICE-EMR, an Integrated Assessment Model with an endogenous mortality response, to simulate Australian GHG trajectories and estimate the temperature-related mortality impact of early decarbonisation. We modelled a linear decline of the Australian health sector’s and economy’s GHG annual emissions to net-zero targets of 2040 and 2050. <h4>Main outcome measure</h4> Deaths averted and monetary-equivalent welfare gain. <h4>Results</h4> Decarbonisation of the Australian health sector by 2050 and 2040 is projected to avert an estimated 69,000 and 77,000 global temperature-related deaths respectively in a Baseline global emissions scenario. Australian economy decarbonisation by 2050 and 2040 is projected to avert an estimated 988,000 and 1,101,000 global deaths respectively. Assuming a low discount rate and high global emissions trajectory, we estimate a monetary equivalent welfare gain of $151 billion if the Australian health sector decarbonises by 2040, only accounting for the benefits in reducing temperature-related mortality. <h4>Conclusions</h4> Earlier decarbonisation has a significant impact on temperature-related mortality. Many uncertainties exist and health impacts other than temperature-related mortality are not captured by this analysis. Nevertheless, such models can help communicate the health risk of climate change and improve climate policy decision making.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9348697/?tool=EBI |
| spellingShingle | Siddhanth Sharma R. Daniel Bressler Anand Bhopal Ole F. Norheim The global temperature-related mortality impact of earlier decarbonization for the Australian health sector and economy: A modelling study PLoS ONE |
| title | The global temperature-related mortality impact of earlier decarbonization for the Australian health sector and economy: A modelling study |
| title_full | The global temperature-related mortality impact of earlier decarbonization for the Australian health sector and economy: A modelling study |
| title_fullStr | The global temperature-related mortality impact of earlier decarbonization for the Australian health sector and economy: A modelling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | The global temperature-related mortality impact of earlier decarbonization for the Australian health sector and economy: A modelling study |
| title_short | The global temperature-related mortality impact of earlier decarbonization for the Australian health sector and economy: A modelling study |
| title_sort | global temperature related mortality impact of earlier decarbonization for the australian health sector and economy a modelling study |
| url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9348697/?tool=EBI |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT siddhanthsharma theglobaltemperaturerelatedmortalityimpactofearlierdecarbonizationfortheaustralianhealthsectorandeconomyamodellingstudy AT rdanielbressler theglobaltemperaturerelatedmortalityimpactofearlierdecarbonizationfortheaustralianhealthsectorandeconomyamodellingstudy AT anandbhopal theglobaltemperaturerelatedmortalityimpactofearlierdecarbonizationfortheaustralianhealthsectorandeconomyamodellingstudy AT olefnorheim theglobaltemperaturerelatedmortalityimpactofearlierdecarbonizationfortheaustralianhealthsectorandeconomyamodellingstudy AT siddhanthsharma globaltemperaturerelatedmortalityimpactofearlierdecarbonizationfortheaustralianhealthsectorandeconomyamodellingstudy AT rdanielbressler globaltemperaturerelatedmortalityimpactofearlierdecarbonizationfortheaustralianhealthsectorandeconomyamodellingstudy AT anandbhopal globaltemperaturerelatedmortalityimpactofearlierdecarbonizationfortheaustralianhealthsectorandeconomyamodellingstudy AT olefnorheim globaltemperaturerelatedmortalityimpactofearlierdecarbonizationfortheaustralianhealthsectorandeconomyamodellingstudy |