Pain rates in general population for the period 1991–2015 and 10-years prediction: results from a multi-continent age-period-cohort analysis
Abstract Background Pain is a common symptom, often associated with neurological and musculoskeletal conditions, and experienced especially by females and by older people. The aims of this study are to evaluate the temporal variations of pain rates among general populations for the period 1991–2015...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2020-05-01
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| Series: | The Journal of Headache and Pain |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s10194-020-01108-3 |
| _version_ | 1819077860057415680 |
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| author | Davide Guido Matilde Leonardi Blanca Mellor-Marsá Maria V. Moneta Albert Sanchez-Niubo Stefanos Tyrovolas Iago Giné-Vázquez Josep M. Haro Somnath Chatterji Martin Bobak Jose L. Ayuso-Mateos Holger Arndt Ilona Koupil Jerome Bickenbach Seppo Koskinen Beata Tobiasz-Adamczyk Demosthenes Panagiotakos Alberto Raggi |
| author_facet | Davide Guido Matilde Leonardi Blanca Mellor-Marsá Maria V. Moneta Albert Sanchez-Niubo Stefanos Tyrovolas Iago Giné-Vázquez Josep M. Haro Somnath Chatterji Martin Bobak Jose L. Ayuso-Mateos Holger Arndt Ilona Koupil Jerome Bickenbach Seppo Koskinen Beata Tobiasz-Adamczyk Demosthenes Panagiotakos Alberto Raggi |
| author_sort | Davide Guido |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Pain is a common symptom, often associated with neurological and musculoskeletal conditions, and experienced especially by females and by older people. The aims of this study are to evaluate the temporal variations of pain rates among general populations for the period 1991–2015 and to project 10-year pain rates. Methods We used the harmonized dataset of ATHLOS project, which included 660,028 valid observations in the period 1990–2015 and we applied Bayesian age–period–cohort modeling to perform projections up to 2025. The harmonized Pain variable covers the content “self-reported pain experienced at the time of the interview”, with a dichotomous (yes or no) modality. Results Pain rates were higher among females, older subjects, in recent periods, and among observations referred to cohorts of subjects born between the 20s and the 60s. The 10-year projections indicate a noteworthy increase in pain rates in both genders and particularly among subjects aged 66 or over, for whom a 10–20% increase in pain rate is foreseen; among females only, a 10–15% increase in pain rates is foreseen for those aged 36–50. Conclusions Projected increase in pain rates will require specific interventions by health and welfare systems, as pain is responsible for limited quality of subjective well-being, reduced employment rates and hampered work performance. Worksite and lifestyle interventions will therefore be needed to limit the impact of projected higher pain rates. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T19:03:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-574301de7eab40639987aa2aeb87d34b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1129-2369 1129-2377 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T19:03:54Z |
| publishDate | 2020-05-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Journal of Headache and Pain |
| spelling | doaj.art-574301de7eab40639987aa2aeb87d34b2022-12-21T18:53:25ZengBMCThe Journal of Headache and Pain1129-23691129-23772020-05-0121111110.1186/s10194-020-01108-3Pain rates in general population for the period 1991–2015 and 10-years prediction: results from a multi-continent age-period-cohort analysisDavide Guido0Matilde Leonardi1Blanca Mellor-Marsá2Maria V. Moneta3Albert Sanchez-Niubo4Stefanos Tyrovolas5Iago Giné-Vázquez6Josep M. Haro7Somnath Chatterji8Martin Bobak9Jose L. Ayuso-Mateos10Holger Arndt11Ilona Koupil12Jerome Bickenbach13Seppo Koskinen14Beata Tobiasz-Adamczyk15Demosthenes Panagiotakos16Alberto Raggi17Neurology, Public Health and Disability Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Neurologico Carlo BestaNeurology, Public Health and Disability Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Neurologico Carlo BestaParc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, Fundacion Sant Joan de DeuParc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, Fundacion Sant Joan de DeuParc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, Fundacion Sant Joan de DeuParc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, Fundacion Sant Joan de DeuParc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, Fundacion Sant Joan de DeuParc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, Fundacion Sant Joan de DeuInformation, Evidence and Research, World Health OrganizationResearch Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College LondonInstituto de Salud Carlos III, Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud Mental, CIBERSAMSPRING TECHNO GMBH & Co. KGDepartment of Public Health Sciences, Centre for Health Equity Studies, Stockholm UniversityDepartment of Health Sciences and Health Policy, University of LucerneFinnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL)Department of Epidemiology and Population Studies, Faculty of Health Sciences, Jagiellonian University Medical CollegeDepartment of Nutrition and Dietetics, School of Health Science and Education, Harokopio UniversityNeurology, Public Health and Disability Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Neurologico Carlo BestaAbstract Background Pain is a common symptom, often associated with neurological and musculoskeletal conditions, and experienced especially by females and by older people. The aims of this study are to evaluate the temporal variations of pain rates among general populations for the period 1991–2015 and to project 10-year pain rates. Methods We used the harmonized dataset of ATHLOS project, which included 660,028 valid observations in the period 1990–2015 and we applied Bayesian age–period–cohort modeling to perform projections up to 2025. The harmonized Pain variable covers the content “self-reported pain experienced at the time of the interview”, with a dichotomous (yes or no) modality. Results Pain rates were higher among females, older subjects, in recent periods, and among observations referred to cohorts of subjects born between the 20s and the 60s. The 10-year projections indicate a noteworthy increase in pain rates in both genders and particularly among subjects aged 66 or over, for whom a 10–20% increase in pain rate is foreseen; among females only, a 10–15% increase in pain rates is foreseen for those aged 36–50. Conclusions Projected increase in pain rates will require specific interventions by health and welfare systems, as pain is responsible for limited quality of subjective well-being, reduced employment rates and hampered work performance. Worksite and lifestyle interventions will therefore be needed to limit the impact of projected higher pain rates.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s10194-020-01108-3PainProjectionBayesian age period cohort modelHeadache disordersMusculoskeletal disordersEmployment |
| spellingShingle | Davide Guido Matilde Leonardi Blanca Mellor-Marsá Maria V. Moneta Albert Sanchez-Niubo Stefanos Tyrovolas Iago Giné-Vázquez Josep M. Haro Somnath Chatterji Martin Bobak Jose L. Ayuso-Mateos Holger Arndt Ilona Koupil Jerome Bickenbach Seppo Koskinen Beata Tobiasz-Adamczyk Demosthenes Panagiotakos Alberto Raggi Pain rates in general population for the period 1991–2015 and 10-years prediction: results from a multi-continent age-period-cohort analysis The Journal of Headache and Pain Pain Projection Bayesian age period cohort model Headache disorders Musculoskeletal disorders Employment |
| title | Pain rates in general population for the period 1991–2015 and 10-years prediction: results from a multi-continent age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_full | Pain rates in general population for the period 1991–2015 and 10-years prediction: results from a multi-continent age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_fullStr | Pain rates in general population for the period 1991–2015 and 10-years prediction: results from a multi-continent age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Pain rates in general population for the period 1991–2015 and 10-years prediction: results from a multi-continent age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_short | Pain rates in general population for the period 1991–2015 and 10-years prediction: results from a multi-continent age-period-cohort analysis |
| title_sort | pain rates in general population for the period 1991 2015 and 10 years prediction results from a multi continent age period cohort analysis |
| topic | Pain Projection Bayesian age period cohort model Headache disorders Musculoskeletal disorders Employment |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s10194-020-01108-3 |
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