Evaluating the effects of climate extremes on crop yield, production and price using multivariate distributions: A new copula application
Climate anomalies pose risks to agriculture and food security. To assess the impact, this paper models the complex dependences of climate extreme indices and the crop-related variables: yield, production, and price of a crop. Using a comprehensive copula-based analysis, the conditional distributions...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2019-12-01
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| Series: | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094718301725 |
| _version_ | 1818546369763213312 |
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| author | Fakhereh Alidoost Zhongbo Su Alfred Stein |
| author_facet | Fakhereh Alidoost Zhongbo Su Alfred Stein |
| author_sort | Fakhereh Alidoost |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate anomalies pose risks to agriculture and food security. To assess the impact, this paper models the complex dependences of climate extreme indices and the crop-related variables: yield, production, and price of a crop. Using a comprehensive copula-based analysis, the conditional distributions of the crop-related variables given extremes of air temperature and precipitation are estimated. We used potatoes in the Netherlands as a case study. Weather data were obtained from 33 weather stations and ECMWF ERA-interim archive during the period 1980–2017. A joint behavior analysis predicted the yield, the production and the price with the relative mean absolute error equal to 5.4%, 3.6%, and 27.9%, respectively. The study showed that copulas adequately describe the multivariate dependences. Those in turn are able to quantify the impact of climate extremes, including their uncertainties. Keywords: Climate anomalies, Copulas, Crop, Multivariate distributions, Weather extremes |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T07:52:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-576d5d00f0ff470abd8ab331a672c817 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2212-0947 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T07:52:17Z |
| publishDate | 2019-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| spelling | doaj.art-576d5d00f0ff470abd8ab331a672c8172022-12-22T00:32:25ZengElsevierWeather and Climate Extremes2212-09472019-12-0126Evaluating the effects of climate extremes on crop yield, production and price using multivariate distributions: A new copula applicationFakhereh Alidoost0Zhongbo Su1Alfred Stein2Corresponding author.; ITC, University of Twente, Enschede, 7500, AE, the NetherlandsITC, University of Twente, Enschede, 7500, AE, the NetherlandsITC, University of Twente, Enschede, 7500, AE, the NetherlandsClimate anomalies pose risks to agriculture and food security. To assess the impact, this paper models the complex dependences of climate extreme indices and the crop-related variables: yield, production, and price of a crop. Using a comprehensive copula-based analysis, the conditional distributions of the crop-related variables given extremes of air temperature and precipitation are estimated. We used potatoes in the Netherlands as a case study. Weather data were obtained from 33 weather stations and ECMWF ERA-interim archive during the period 1980–2017. A joint behavior analysis predicted the yield, the production and the price with the relative mean absolute error equal to 5.4%, 3.6%, and 27.9%, respectively. The study showed that copulas adequately describe the multivariate dependences. Those in turn are able to quantify the impact of climate extremes, including their uncertainties. Keywords: Climate anomalies, Copulas, Crop, Multivariate distributions, Weather extremeshttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094718301725 |
| spellingShingle | Fakhereh Alidoost Zhongbo Su Alfred Stein Evaluating the effects of climate extremes on crop yield, production and price using multivariate distributions: A new copula application Weather and Climate Extremes |
| title | Evaluating the effects of climate extremes on crop yield, production and price using multivariate distributions: A new copula application |
| title_full | Evaluating the effects of climate extremes on crop yield, production and price using multivariate distributions: A new copula application |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating the effects of climate extremes on crop yield, production and price using multivariate distributions: A new copula application |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating the effects of climate extremes on crop yield, production and price using multivariate distributions: A new copula application |
| title_short | Evaluating the effects of climate extremes on crop yield, production and price using multivariate distributions: A new copula application |
| title_sort | evaluating the effects of climate extremes on crop yield production and price using multivariate distributions a new copula application |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094718301725 |
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